BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL

[RobWESTPACWX]

[KWT]

A westward track seems pretty reasonable, it had got probably 72-96hrs over water so if conditions are good we may end up getting a pretty decent strength system, hopefully nothing like Giri though!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed KWT, defiantly not even close to Giri, but still think it could be a severe cyclone. Defiantly above 64kts in the core. It has the ingredients there for this to happen.

[KWT]

Yeah I do think it has time to get strong, I'd go for 65-75kts 1 min mean wind speed for now but when you have 3-4 days over warm waters you always need to keep a close eye on it...

[GCANE]

Core is narrow, especially what is typical for BOB.

Based on that, chances are better than average for a quick ramp up.

[HURAKAN]

04/1430 UTC 8.9N 90.0E T2.5/2.5 99W -- Bay of Bengal

35 knots

[Chacor]

JTWC disagrees.

WTIO21 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031451ZNOV2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 90.9E TO 9.6N 86.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
90.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STALLED
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST DAY. CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO YIELD
A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION GREATER THAN 2.0, OR 30 KNOTS, FROM PGTW.
UNTIL THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, MOVING NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH AND CONVECTION WILL
STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTER.POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR, BUT
IN GENERAL THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY, NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER VWS. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051500Z.//

[Macrocane]

It seems like JTWC is going to upgrade it soon, the TCFA doesn't appear on the site anymore and it has not been canceled so the first warning may be issued on the next hour or so, and this site has it as tropical cylone 5 already: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO052010

[KWT]

12z ECM still very keen on developing this into a fairly healthy system, nohing too strong but certainly a system...

Think it will develop soon but how strong it gets remains to be seen.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041451ZNOV2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 9.0N 88.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 88.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.2N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.6N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 10.3N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.2N 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.2N 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.5N 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 88.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OVERALL
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 041520Z METOP-A IMAGE
AS WELL AS AN EARLIER 041344Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTED A MORE DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT ALSO
SUPPORTED 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW EXCEPT FOR THE EAST QUADRANT
DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES, AND THE SSMIS WIND DATA. TC 05B IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 05B
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE (TO 45 KNOTS) IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE VWS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 24 AS VWS DECREASES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR
65 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 96. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 041500Z NOV 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 041500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Expected to get upto 65kts, wouldn't shock me if it gets a little stronger then that though IMO but its still going to be interesting to watch...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

My video today on 05B!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlZdwi__P9A[/youtube]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 9.4N 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.8N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 10.3N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 10.9N 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 11.6N 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.3N 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.3N 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 87.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS AS IT CONSOLIDATES UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BANDING FEATURES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED IN
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER, CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUILD. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE STEADIED AT A 3.0/3.0 OR 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW FIX CYCLES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A 050228Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BOTH PLACE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS CONVECTION SHEARS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL WITH INDIA
AFTER TAU 48, BUT NOT BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 75 KNOTS. A
DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS, AND A DEEP POOL OF WARM WATER WILL ALL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO EMERGING INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. THIS FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH
IS TRENDING SOUTH OF EARLIER RUNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z
AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

Upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Jal.

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘JAL’ ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 1030 UTC OF 05TH NOVEMBER 2010 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 05TH NOVEMBER 2010.


THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘JAL’ AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH NOVEMBER 2010, NEAR LAT. 9.00N AND LONG. 87.50E ABOUT 700 KM EAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 900 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279) AND 1100 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43149)

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA.

ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD MASS IS MORE ORGANISED. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5. THE CLOUD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. INTENSE TO VER INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF REST SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800 TO -850C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT. THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER. THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND NELLORE (43245) CLOSE TO CHENNAI (43279) BY 7TH NOVEMBER 2010 EVENING/NIGHT.


BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(IST)
POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

05-11-2010/0600
9.0/87.5
65-75 GUSTING TO 85

05-11-2010/1200
9.5/87.0
75-85 GUSTING TO 95

05-11-2010/1800
9.5/86.5
85-95 GUSTING 105

06-11-2010/0000
10.0/86.0
100-110 GUSTING 120

06-11-2010/0600
10.5/85.5
110-120 GUSTING 130

06-11-2010/1800
11.5/83.5
120-130 GUSTING 140

07-11-2010/0600
12.5/81.5
120-130 GUSTING 140

07-11-2010/1800
13.5/79.5
80-90 GUSTING 100

08-11-2010/0600
14.5/77.5
50-60 GUSTING 70


REMARKS

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS). 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NEGATIVE OVER NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING PAST 24 HOURS . SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 290-310 C AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL 90-100 KJ/CM2,. WHICH IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL IS (140-16×10-5S-1) AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS (20×10-5S-1) ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 150N AT 200 HPA LEVEL.

[KWT]

Not looking bad at the moment but I'd like to see a microwave image of the system core first to see what state its in and how likely it is to get strong...

[HURAKAN]

named JAL

[HURAKAN]

BOB 05/2010/09 Dated: 05.11. 2010

Time of issue: 1730 hours IST

Sub: Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 5th November 2010, near lat. 9.00N and long. 87.50E about 700 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 900 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1100 km southeast of Visakhapatnam. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 evening/night.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)

Position

(lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

Intensity

05-11-2010/1430

9.0/87.5

75-85 gusting to 95

Cyclonic Storm

05-11-2010/1730

9.5/87.0

85-95 gusting to 105

Cyclonic Storm

05-11-2010/2330

9.5/86.5

95-105 gusting 115

Severe Cyclonic Storm

06-11-2010/0530

10.0/86.0

100-110 gusting 120

Severe Cyclonic Storm

06-11-2010/1130

10.5/85.5

110-120 gusting 130

Severe Cyclonic Storm

06-11-2010/2330

11.5/83.5

120-130 gusting 140

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/1130

12.5/81.5

120-130 gusting 140

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

07-11-2010/2330

13.5/79.5

80-90 gusting 100

Cyclonic Storm

08-11-2010/1130

14.5/77.5

50-60 gusting 70

Depression

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema from morning of 7th November 2010.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.

Damage expected:

Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested:

Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

The system is under constant surveillance and concerned state Govts. are being informed.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 5th November.