ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[Ikester]

I'm not so sure thats true though Ikester, quite a few of the models did show a hurricane, I know of several GFDL runs that got upto 100kts and in that case they actually were too strong with it.

Then again I do know what you mean, quite a decent percentage didn't go strong enough with Alex, but then again conditions are more condusive for Alex and it was way more advanced at this point then 96L is.

good point KWT.. and also keep in mind how long Alex was in the GoM for.. 96L is moving at a pretty decent trek.. I just think its going to run out of time before it can get its act together.. which is good news for texas..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This has the potential to SINK Houston in a ton of flood water. Some areas of the city had between 7 and 15" of rain last Friday. If we get that kind of rainfall again, organized system or not, we're done. Thank God I have floaties...

[HURAKAN]

601
WHXX01 KWBC 070038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED JUL 7 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100707 0000 100707 1200 100708 0000 100708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 89.9W 22.1N 92.2W 23.2N 94.3W 24.1N 96.2W
BAMD 21.0N 89.9W 21.8N 91.5W 22.5N 93.2W 23.1N 95.1W
BAMM 21.0N 89.9W 22.0N 91.8W 22.9N 93.8W 23.7N 95.7W
LBAR 21.0N 89.9W 22.0N 92.1W 23.5N 94.5W 25.2N 97.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100709 0000 100710 0000 100711 0000 100712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 98.2W 26.1N 102.0W 27.3N 105.8W 28.7N 109.0W
BAMD 23.6N 96.9W 24.4N 100.9W 25.1N 105.4W 26.4N 109.7W
BAMM 24.4N 97.7W 25.6N 101.6W 26.8N 105.7W 28.2N 109.2W
LBAR 26.8N 99.4W 30.5N 102.0W 33.1N 101.1W 34.4N 98.0W
SHIP 48KTS 59KTS 65KTS 66KTS
DSHP 34KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 89.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.2N LONM12 = 87.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 85.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[lonelymike]

I'm not so sure thats true though Ikester, quite a few of the models did show a hurricane, I know of several GFDL runs that got upto 100kts and in that case they actually were too strong with it.

Then again I do know what you mean, quite a decent percentage didn't go strong enough with Alex, but then again conditions are more condusive for Alex and it was way more advanced at this point then 96L is.

good point KWT.. and also keep in mind how long Alex was in the GoM for.. 96L is moving at a pretty decent trek.. I just think its going to run out of time before it can get its act together.. which is good news for texas..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This has the potential to SINK Houston in a ton of flood water. Some areas of the city had between 7 and 15" of rain last Friday. If we get that kind of rainfall again, organized system or not, we're done. Thank God I have floaties...

Thought Texas needed the rain?

[lrak]

I think SE Texas is the wettest spot in the state, its the rest of us that could use a drink.

[redfish1]

why did the models shift so much more south today???

[Ivanhater]

why did the models shift so much more south today???

They were initialized near the MLC coming off the Yucatan. There is another low pressure max in the central gulf right now that some of the models were following yesterday. There is nothing organized yet so it depends on what area you want to follow at this point. The NHC seems to think the MLC on the southern side has the best shot right now

[HURAKAN]

I would add that the weaker it remains, the farther west it's likely to travel.

[Portastorm]

Thought Texas needed the rain?

Parts of Texas do need the rain but not the Houston area. Believe it or not, portions of central, north central, and far east Texas are showing rainfall deficits right now.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 0z ops 48h

[Wx_Warrior]

0z gfs para 42h

[ROCK]

I am sure glad I dont have to stay up for any late night EURO runs....

then again I am sure we will have plenty in a few weeks...

[southerngale]

Thought Texas needed the rain?

We sure don't need any more rain in SE TX, Beaumont area. We've gotten plenty lately and are saturated!

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

HWRF is stronger

[Wx_Warrior]

for that to verify, it would need a big jumpstart & do so rapidly.

[southerngale]

It's a much better consensus than with Alex. Maybe it will stay that way.

[HURAKAN]

ivan, where do u get those graphics? look great!

[Duddy]

WxWarrior, that image isn't loading. It's just a missing image placeholder.

[Wx_Warrior]