ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[cycloneye]

Ivan, I see 18z NOGAPS is back with it.

[Goradd]

Great job with the model maps Michael. Keep em comin.....
I would be absolutely shocked if something doesn't develop over the next 7 days.... Especially in a really active year.

Is One Hurricane and One Tropical Storm really considered a Really Active year at this time in the season?

[Weatherfreak000]

Great job with the model maps Michael. Keep em comin.....
I would be absolutely shocked if something doesn't develop over the next 7 days.... Especially in a really active year.

Is One Hurricane and One Tropical Storm really considered a Really Active year at this time in the season?

Easily. Plus the un-named TD.

[lonelymike]

Dean I guess it depends on which model you believe for the ridge-the GFS or the Euro.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, I see 18z NOGAPS is back with it.

Because it shakes the other vorts and is able to consolidate. That is the message I'm taking from the models....if it can consolidate into one vort max then conditions are favorable to ramp up...

[Dean4Storms]

Dean I guess it depends on which model you believe for the ridge-the GFS or the Euro.

I think the 18z GFS looked realistic given what we currently are seeing.

[Ivanhater]

I don;t think they are going to run the HWRF or GFDL until we get one solid area. Make sense because unless we have a consolidated area, those models are junk...

[Blown Away]

If 90L loses out and merges with the wave behind it wouldn't that likely put the new circulation center farther east and essentially make the 90L models worthless?

[wzrgirl1]

I don't think we will have much to talk about until Monday at the earliest as far as a named system goes. After that, I think things will ramp up with 90L. Of course, it won't stop me from visiting this site several times a day.

[cycloneye]

Same goes for the 00z tropical models (BAMS) that apparently didn't run. What Ivan said 3 posts above may be the reason.

[wxgirl69]

Starting to come together at 108 hours, but time frame keeps pushing back which makes me suspicious...




Conditions are favorable though



Let's see if it drops it

One thing I have noticed is that when things get pushed back.. More than likely it will not come to fruition.

[gatorcane]

Not to mention this invest is looking quite pathetic. There is no need to even contemplate long-range models until we get something that actually has a decent chance at developing. The fact the ECMWF shows only a reflection in the long-range is quite telling.

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:
Not to mention this invest is looking quite pathetic. There is no need to even contemplate long-range models until we get something that actually has a decent chance at developing. The fact the ECMWF shows only a reflection in the long-range is quite telling.

You do realize the Euro has flipped every run for the past 3 days from an open wave to a hurricane the next....not really telling at all

[CourierPR]

:uarrow:
Not to mention this invest is looking quite pathetic. There is no need to even contemplate long-range models until we get something that actually has a decent chance at developing. The fact the ECMWF shows only a reflection in the long-range is quite telling.

I think you'll be jumping on the bandwagon for development next week after 90L merges with that system coming off Africa. Give it time.

[lester]

the nam develops 90L and the carib wave:



of course..it is the nam

[Vortex]

00Z GFS will start rolling in about 10 minutes. The 18Z run looked very reasonable and the solution offered in terms of track seemed to align very well with the forecasted synoptic environment.So im anxiously awaiting the 00z run...

[Ivanhater]

GFS shows nothing impressive

[blp]

Reflection starting to show up.

[Ivanhater]

GFS doesn't develop this..it seems like the models go back and forth every run for development. I'm not impressed so far...

[xcool22]

I have to throw it out the window gfs