ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Thanks Ivan, thats what i have been searching for. Does it go out another 12-24 hrs? Our mets are currently playing this conservatively giving us only a 30-40% chance of rain through the week.

Here you go Mike...scroll down to he 12z run and precip area and pick what hours you want

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... emble.html

[Ivanhater]

00z NAM

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Mike. Looks like a lot of folks along the coast could be in for some good rains later this week into the weekend.

[Dean4Storms]

00z NAM

If the NAM is correct with a 1000mb we could see some strong TS winds along the pressure gradient on the NE side if not some Hurricane gusts.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well well, cant say im surprised that things are looking better for this system. DO NOT take any storm or wave in the Gulf for granted. We've all seen storms bomb in the GOM. Lets keep our eyes peeled.

[Dean4Storms]

Latest Statistical models......

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... nvest1.gif

Note the extrapolated position has it moving SW into the convection we see on radar????

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

66 hour 850 Vort

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066l.gif

[ROCK]

66 hour 850 Vort

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066l.gif

yep...more left and if anybody decided to look at the 12Z EURO except me while I was flying all over the nation you would see this coming....

OT---I left SOFLO at 12pm...rerouted to Maryland, Balitmore then to Jackson, MS then had to fly around 50,000 tops just to get to Houston 8 hrs later....

[brunota2003]

So, the weaker the system...the faster and further to the left it goes, but the stronger the slower it is and the further to the right it goes is what I'm picking up?

[Ivanhater]

Rock..the 12z Euro takes this into Nola/Mississippi area getting strung up with a trough

[ROCK]

So, the weaker the system...the faster and further to the left it goes, but the stronger the slower it is and the further to the right it goes is what I'm picking up?

yes, the ridge breaking down might be an out for 94 but it remains to be seen if the trof digs enough and how strong 94 is....

12Z ECM from their web site....granted the EURO dosent exactly initilize correctly nor does to strengthen it at all...Neither does the 12Z GFS that takes it in SW LA.....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 912!!step/

[ROCK]

Rock..the 12z Euro takes this into Nola/Mississippi area getting strung up with a trough

again we have competing maps....IVAN.... I am looking at the ECM site....12z GFS starting to come around IMO...

[Ivanhater]

Nice tour of the country Rock with that plane ride!

Nogaps shows reflection into Mobile

[HouTXmetro]

Rock/Ivan I don't understand how y'all are getting different products from the same model. But anyways...Rock what did the EURO that you saw show?

[ROCK]

Rock/Ivan I don't understand how y'all are getting different products from the same model. But anyways...Rock what did the EURO that you saw show?

similar to the 12z GFS...little more left with a weak reflection in the mid-Tx coast....thus the Larry rationale....see discussion posted by Port....

[ROCK]

Nice tour of the country Rock with that plane ride!

Nogaps shows reflection into Mobile

you and your NOGAPS.... stick to the NAM bro.....

[Bailey1777]

i will bet a 20 dollar donation to s2k that this system gets west of 92.

[ROCK]

looking at the development trend tonight though and lack of current steering I would go from TX/LA border over to FL Panhandle if I was a betting man...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian into Mobile