ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[brunota2003]

I'd personally up the chances to 40% next time round, but I want to see what happens with regards to the old frontal boundary first...

well 30 to 40 not a big deal.. but I jumping on tonight being very beneficial to it as we will lose the boundary interaction over florida that are somewhat inhibiting the eastern semi circle flow..

Plus as it moves away from Florida, more and more of the inflow will be from the ocean itself, versus coming off of land (even if the land is swampy). DMAX should be interesting for this little system.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like I ended up in the dry quadrant today. Only a few storms at my house today. Tomorrow looks like a different story with 60-70% POPs and a slight to moderate chance of waterspouts over the GOM and coastal counties.

[Weatherfreak000]

So the longer it's attached the more south the models will go?

It makes little difference. Wxman57 alluded to this earlier. Track guidance remains highly clustered.

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

if you watch any loop you can see the upper flow shift as it sags south and the upper low heads slowly NW .. this is a sign the upper environment is improving as the SW side of a Upper low is better than the on the west side as it becomes very divergent aloft..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[Sanibel]

The ULL is digging right into it.

[lebron23]

the stronger the system the more west it goes

[Frank P]

Its almost mid August, you would expect something like this to have a little more potential for development, especially since there is so much expectation for developing storms this year.. if it was 2005 we'd have hurricane warnings posted on the MS coast by now..

I just got to believe at some point these systems will began to take off... but it seems like the shear monster has been playing havoc all summer long.. eventually things should take off and the shear monster will settle down.. maybe we're still a couple of weeks away...

[brunota2003]

From what I can tell, buoy obs might be hinting at a very, very, very weak llc (I can't plot them like wxman can, so it is difficult to determine with an image). The winds on the eastern side are 6 or 7 knots, though, which is pretty weak.

Of interest will be this observation platform, wnw of Key West (replacement station for the failed Dry Tortugas station).
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=plsf1

Right now, winds are out of the west at 22 knots, with a pressure of 1011 mb. The winds match (it is south of where Aric was pointing out the low level clouds starting to rotate, so the west wind would be correct), the pressure is still dropping, and the winds are still increasing. It looks like best guess would be 25 knot winds, with a minimum pressure of 1010 millibars at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Going to be a fun night.. with center reformations and stuff.. lol my favorite time when it all happens on radar

[cycloneye]

It looks like best guess would be 25 knot winds, with a minimum pressure of 1010 millibars at the moment

Lets see if the 00z Best Track data has those numbers.

[jasons2k]

Looking at Key West radar, it's clear there there are storms at different levels/heights in the atmosphere and they are colliding & moving in different directions all over the place, mostly from west to east and east to west.

In other words, there is still a lot of shear off the SW coast of Florida right now. It's very easy to see on the Key West long range.

[KWT]

Well at least we will be able to get a good idea of what is actually happening with this system thanks to good ole radar.

ULL heading NW at a decent clip at the moment, whether that will induce a weakening/strengthening trend will remain to be seen but as the old frontal boundary decays it'll probably be helped by some assistance in terms of upper divergence.

[brunota2003]

It looks like best guess would be 25 knot winds, with a minimum pressure of 1010 millibars at the moment

Lets see if the 00z Best Track data has those numbers.

I wouldn't be surprised if it does. That tower has 22 knot winds, with a pressure of 1011, and it isn't even in the heaviest convection...and is still south of the center (with the pressure still dropping).

[Ikester]

Any word on recon?

[Aric Dunn]

another thing .. this will also be pulled to the convection which is to the south... the NWS local meso forecast the low to be near Key West tomorrow and I would like to agree as it continues to sag south and the center will be pulled/reform closer and under the convection.. so as the ULL Moves NW it should allow the upper environment to improve over night.

shear still dropping pretty quickly..

[cycloneye]

Any word on recon?

Tomorrow afternoon will be the first mission. There is a thread for recon.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108909&p=2032348#p2032348

[Ikester]

Thanks, I don't know how I missed that.

[tailgater]

Going to be a fun night.. with center reformations and stuff.. lol my favorite time when it all happens on radar

Yeah I heard that!
a couple of inhibiting factors.


WV loop of Dry air to the north and west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Comanche]

The ULL is digging right into it.

Thank you for saying this, I was thinking maybe I was crazy. All I see is the ULL moving west into it and also wrapping dry air into the area as well. I don't think much of anything will come out of this and I hope this whole season will go down as a year with so much potential yet horrible upper environment. "2010, the year of shear"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html