ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[gatorcane]

I think the GFS has nailed the track and intensity this time. Kudos to the GFS. Big weakness thing monster is headed towards. Actually besides yesterday's weird runs the Euro also has been showing strong system and recurve.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow:

I think the GFS has nailed the track and intensity this time. Kudos to the GFS. Big weakness thing monster is headed towards. Actually besides yesterday's weird runs the Euro also has been showing strong system and recurve.

I agree gator, there's no reason to think that it won't be a fish at this point....You can clearly see the weakness in all of the model plotting maps. As pointed out earlier, most CV systems do recurve anyway, so this is nothing out of the ordinary.... I still think it will be fun to see how strong it gets though.

[KWT]

Models still in agreement after a brief fling from the 12z ECM...its not going to matter really where it sets-up probably because the system will still head due north once they reach 55W in the current set-up...just means an extra 12-18hrs in warm waters probably!

the ECM will be flinging another run soon. But I like the way you are sticking to your guns......

Not really sticking to my guns, just sticking to the utterly overwhelming data at the moment, if that were to shift I'd shift as well, I'm not like Joe B, stubborn to one evolution

[hurricaneCW]

I hope now that we can get past the point of this being a complete recurve to just discuss the intensity. We're lucky the storm developed during a time of an unusually strong east coast trough. Future storms in September probably won't have to deal with that, not until October but then the Cape Verde season shuts off anyway.

[KWT]

We'll see HCW, when you've had troughing that stubborn its rare it kicks out until the winter patterns kicks in (usually evolves and changes during October and into November), esp when the global pattern is stagnant like it is.

Still the models are also very uncertain about the possible strength of 95L still, the GFS is a bit weaker in the next 3-5 days, we will see they generally aren't quite as agressive in the first few days but still generally become a hurricane...

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100821  1800   100822  0600   100822  1800   100823  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N  31.8W   11.1N  32.5W   12.0N  33.3W   13.7N  35.0W
BAMD    10.8N  31.8W   10.9N  33.5W   10.9N  35.1W   11.0N  36.8W
BAMM    10.8N  31.8W   11.2N  32.8W   12.0N  34.0W   13.1N  35.8W
LBAR    10.8N  31.8W   11.2N  33.8W   12.0N  36.7W   12.5N  39.9W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          59KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          59KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100823  1800   100824  1800   100825  1800   100826  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  38.2W   20.2N  46.6W   21.7N  53.8W   21.1N  56.6W
BAMD    11.6N  38.5W   14.3N  42.4W   19.5N  46.3W   25.7N  47.7W
BAMM    15.0N  38.5W   19.4N  45.7W   22.4N  52.0W   23.1N  55.0W
LBAR    13.2N  43.6W   14.2N  50.2W   15.8N  53.7W   25.2N  54.4W
SHIP        70KTS          86KTS          87KTS          88KTS
DSHP        70KTS          86KTS          87KTS          88KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR =  31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  10.5N LONM12 =  30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  10.4N LONM24 =  29.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

12z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

WOW ECM is exceptionally quick with the recurve on this run...recurves at 50W!!!

[gatorcane]

WOW ECM is exceptionally quick with the recurve on this run...recurves at 50W!!!

Yeah where has the ridging gone? Btw the bamd also shoots it off to the north.

[hurricaneCW]

How often do you get an August, Cape Verde system that develops around 11N, west of 30W and curves out to sea at 50W in a moderate La Nina. Another very strange possible verification in a very strange hurricane season. I mean how much earlier can this thing curve out to sea, 45W!

[ROCK]

WOW ECM is exceptionally quick with the recurve on this run...recurves at 50W!!!

it also intializes way back at 24W.... garbage in garbage out....its on the wrong vortex...

[KWT]

Yeah its a little early perhaps but its happened before quite a few times, the simple truth is the upper ridging has been pretty poor!

[Comanche]

Not sure if there's much to argue about in light of the fact that models have been very consistent, and pretty much all in agreement as well. Could see arguments sake IF there was enough model divergence, but...............

[ROCK]

Not sure if there's much to argue about in light of the fact that models have been very consistent, and pretty much all in agreement as well. Could see arguments sake IF there was enough model divergence, but...............

no arguing here... just a healthy debate....my undergrad was in law with a minor in litigation....

[perk]

WOW ECM is exceptionally quick with the recurve on this run...recurves at 50W!!!

it also intializes way back at 24W.... garbage in garbage out....its on the wrong vortex...

Rock you beat me to it, and for you guys in the recurve camp you may end up being right, but please tell me you're not gonna use this run to justify your argument.

[KWT]

Nah the ECM probably is too far east, but if you adjust a little further west it actually puts the ECM slap bang in the middle of the current VERY tight model consensus...

[Emmett_Brown]

I have seen some mention here and other boards that the Euro ensemble in the 7-10 day range shows a stronger ridge in the SE Conus and SW Atlantic, but the Euro operational run shows a trough... so there is just enough conflicting data to raise at least a small amount of doubt about the future path of TD6. The majority of the data points to re-curve, but the overall pattern of La-Nina favors stronger connecting ridges, so there is a bit of conflict in my opinion between what the majority of models are showing and what you would usually expect for this time of year and state of ENSO. Unfortunately I don't have access to this data so no links to share, just conveying what I have heard.

Certainly one thing that favors a recurve now is that the pace of development is accelerating... which favors a turn to the N earlier as we all know...

[Fego]

Here we can compare TD#6/Danielle with others systems developed at the same position.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html


going to wnw to west for awhile.....

[KWT]

THe ECM ensembles do show two seperate solutions that may occur...

The first is the same one we've been watching from all the models, the recurve at 55-60W...

The second is the upper trough gets away quickly enough and the system gets further west, at the very least it would put Bermuda at real risk because the ridging comes back stronger again.