ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[KWT]

This one is the real threat IMO, not Earl or any of the others...thats not to say Earl isn't going to cause problems because its going to be a tight call for the Caribbean Islands but the real threat for at least the states is Fiona.

The models suggest Earl's motion is key, if Earl gets far enough west then this one should be spun to the north and both Earl and Fiona recurve out to sea happy as larry...IF Earl takes the express route out between 60-65W then the upper high will likely build i behind Earl and strongly enough to shunt this one back westwards right into the E.coast probably as a major hurricane.

Right now Earl looks like it gets far enough west to prevent this one from doing the worst case but obviously it needs careful watching.

[artist]

weren't they doing some research with drones or something in this area around this time or last week or something?

I know that some years ago,they went to a storm named Delta near the CV Islands,but I dont have clear details. Maybe, our friend pojo can shed light, but I haven't seen her at the board for a long time.

They went to Debby in 2006.

ok, I found what I had read. I am wondering if they have been out there for this storm or earl possibly -

:31 A.M. — VIRGINA KEY — A new study is trying to determine why some hurricanes rapidly intensify into destructive storms, while others remain weak.


Michael Montgomery, a meteorology professor at the U.S. Naval Post Graduate School, says researchers believe that there are unseen, protected areas of developing storms that somehow defy odds and give some systems a chance to intensify.

Frank Marks, the director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, says the new study starting this week will use the Global Hawk, a jet-powered unmanned drone used by the military in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Researchers hope the additional drones will be able to sample areas that can't be scanned by hurricane hunter planes or weather satellites.

Officials hope the additional data will lead to more accurate forecasts.

http://www.news-press.com/article/20100 ... cane-study

[TheBurn]

[Typhoon_Willie]

The African wave train continues... Looks like it is going to be busy these next few weeks.

[KWT]

I maybe a little too quick with this one but I do think this one is a very uncertain set-up, more so then for DAnielle/Earl...there are real suggestions by the models of a *proper* upper high trying to form and if that was to occur as long as the system is say south of 30-32N a bendback westwards is really possible from 192hrs onwards IMO.

Of course the possible interaction with Earl and therefore Earl's strength and track is going to be a very key factor in how this all goes down so to speak!

[Ivanhater]

FRIDAY 3:00 PM
IS FIONA THE LEGENDARY SHORT CUT STORM?

I dont believe the GFS for a second on pulling what will be Fiona into Earl.

Instead for the second run in a row, the European has a more sinister look, saying the unusual... actually the 1 in 100 year storm, is on the table.. a hit from the southeast on the east coast. This morning it tried a blend of 1947 ( Savannah) and Dora in 1964. Now it is trying a blend of Isabel and 1933.. And its now weakling either.. a pressure forecast under 950 mb on a global model 2 runs in a row is big trouble.

But here is what to take away from this... the idea that each storm is west of the one before. This makes sense, given the overall shift in the pattern that will probably focus alot of activity even further west after the 10th.

BTW the model is taking Danielle and pulling it into what has to be one of the 5 deepest low pressures before Labor Day in the north Atlantic basin. The difference between Earl and Fiona to be is the ridge is BUILDING in front of Fiona over the top... while with Earl it is in place before ( heat wave) and collapses) This is what must have happened in 1933 to drive that hurricane ashore.. the surface high builds to over 1030 over Maine. Given the major ridges over Japan and the Aleutians, there is reason to believe that if Fiona is around next weekend, it can get "trapped" under a building ridge that would be aimed over the northeast. So while I cant trust details, I can put the puzzle together enough to say that each of these is responding a bit further west, and the overall pattern is one that says such a thing as the model is suggesting.. like it saw lets say with Isabel, is one the table. What I dont believe is the idea that Fiana to be is going to get pulled into Earl. Doesnt make sense given the speed of the stream that is allowing these to march off every 15-20 degrees. It should stay separate, and if it does, should respond further west with the pattern that is shifting the threat of storms further west with time.

ciao for now ****


JOE B

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Ivanhater]

80 PERCENT

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

[Ivanhater]

I give up Luis

[cycloneye]

I give up Luis

I only look for the info and post those at the forum. The important thing is to have a good rapid up to the minute information,that many boards around the net dont have.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

97L continues to slowly organize with convective organization good enough for tropical depression classification. The challenge now is the broad low pressure area associated with it that still needs to consolidate and become better defined. At the present time I believe that there is a near 100% chance that 97L becomes a tropical depression, with the most likely date for that classification being tomorrow, if it can work on its circulation of course.

[KWT]

Yeah this one looks just about certain to be our next system...

Track is just too early to tell though, some of the models, esp the GFS based models are trying to turn this one out to sea near 60W but like Joe B I don't think thats going to happen...the same trend we are seeing with Earl will carry on with 97L...but the BIG difference as Joe B states is this one will be coming into the SW Atlantic at a time when a upper high is trying to develop and somewhat seal the weakness caused by Earl withdrawing.

Uncertain times ahead either way!

[cycloneye]

Sab Dvorak T numbers go up

27/2345 UTC 12.7N 27.0W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic

[jaxfladude]

Did another climo check on 97L's current location. Of all Aug/Sep storms within 65nm of 97L's current location, now there is ONE single hurricane that struck the U.S. and one that made a pretty good impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean storm was Luis '95. The U.S. storm was the very unusual track of Dora of 1964. Interestingly, the EC and CMC models take 97L on a track similar to Dora out to 10 days. I'd say that's possible, but more likely it'll recurve before the models are indicating.

Image

May Dora be the only one of her kind to do so this seasons and all future seasons for the rest of my time living in NE FLA! After that.....


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

80 PERCENT

...........................

Triplets!


The chances of a land-falling hit are getting higher-ish.....Alex and Bonnie not withstanding.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010082800, , BEST, 0, 123N, 254W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

Convection has increased

[KWT]

Gained a little bit of latitude but thats to be expected. Fiona will probably end up north of Earl's position by 60W BUT the key will be whether the upper high builds back or not, pretty tough call but we will see what the models show tomorrow!

[OuterBanker]

Good evening all, sure is boring around here. Nothing to talk about.

Kinda wishing that were still true.

Looks like a lot of sleep deprevation next few weeks.

For once I won't be backing the euro.

00z was bad enough, 12z even worse.

At least I know it will change tommorow.

[Blown Away]

Instead for the second run in a row, the European has a more sinister look, saying the unusual... actually the 1 in 100 year storm, is on the table.. a hit from the southeast on the east coast. This morning it tried a blend of 1947 ( Savannah) and Dora in 1964. Now it is trying a blend of Isabel and 1933.. And its now weakling either.. a pressure forecast under 950 mb on a global model 2 runs in a row is big trouble.

What did he mean about the 1 in 100 storm?

[shah8]

I don't get that either...

Hazel, Hugo, David are three in about 60 years.