ATL: IGOR - Models

[gatorcane]

Looks like an Earl part 2 but maybe further east. We are still out about 7 days though before the shortwave induces a weakness. If the shortwave troughs rotating around the long wave trough are not as deep. It could make a difference how far west he makes it.

[lonelymike]

No doubt Gator but as KWT has been pointing out this troughy pattern shows no signs of abating. Hard to believe its 9/10 and no major hurricane in the greater atlantic basin

[Florida1118]

Models still look like a confused mess...Still have to wait a few days and see if a they can start to agree.

[hurricaneCW]

No doubt Gator but as KWT has been pointing out this troughy pattern shows no signs of abating. Hard to believe its 9/10 and no major hurricane in the greater atlantic basin

There are clearly signs that shows stronger western atlantic ridging and less troughiness otherwise there would be no doubt that Igor would recurve well east of the U.S., and even east of Bermuda, probably 55-60W given it's September and Igor is already above 17N, east of 40W.

[SouthFLTropics]

No doubt Gator but as KWT has been pointing out this troughy pattern shows no signs of abating. Hard to believe its 9/10 and no major hurricane in the greater atlantic basin

There are clearly signs that shows stronger western atlantic ridging and less troughiness otherwise there would be no doubt that Igor would recurve well east of the U.S., and even east of Bermuda, probably 55-60W given it's September and Igor is already above 17N, east of 40W.

With that in mind CW I have been thinking that maybe the seasons are running about 1 to 2 months behind. If the long range models are correct we are heading into more of an August type pattern instead of a late September/early October pattern.

SFT

[hurricaneCW]

It's a matter of timing, the ridging pattern is likely to be temporary if it does transpire. Probably no longer than 7-10 days, which coincidentally, will be the next time the eastern U.S. is likely to experience well above normal temperatures. The trend west in the models is indicative of stronger subtropical ridging/less troughiness to a certain longitude, but it doesn't mean the storm will be able to make it all the way to the U.S. Chances are, it probably has a 10% chance of making it.

[caneseddy]

00z GFS out to 48 hours shows Igor as a hurricane moving west around 17N/45W...still going west

edit: out to 108 hrs, Igor is at 60W below 20N

at 120 hrs, Igor lifting north now at 20N past 60W

AT 168 hrs, recurving around 62W...and at 174, there she goes north..at 240 passing very close to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

[SFLcane]

recurving around 60W on the 00z GFS...

[Wx_Warrior]

long rang 0z cmc

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 111305
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100911 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  1200   100912  0000   100912  1200   100913  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  38.7W   18.0N  41.2W   19.0N  44.1W   20.2N  47.3W
BAMD    17.3N  38.7W   17.7N  41.9W   17.9N  45.0W   18.2N  47.5W
BAMM    17.3N  38.7W   18.0N  41.7W   18.6N  44.8W   19.2N  47.5W
LBAR    17.3N  38.7W   17.9N  41.9W   18.6N  45.1W   19.0N  48.3W
SHIP        60KTS          66KTS          75KTS          83KTS
DSHP        60KTS          66KTS          75KTS          83KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  1200   100914  1200   100915  1200   100916  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.7N  50.9W   19.3N  57.6W   16.6N  59.4W   18.4N  55.7W
BAMD    18.3N  49.5W   19.1N  52.4W   21.1N  54.6W   24.1N  57.8W
BAMM    19.5N  50.1W   19.1N  54.5W   19.2N  55.6W   22.6N  56.2W
LBAR    19.5N  51.1W   20.6N  55.4W   21.6N  57.2W   22.8N  59.5W
SHIP        92KTS         108KTS         114KTS         113KTS
DSHP        92KTS         108KTS         114KTS         113KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.3N LONCUR =  38.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  17.1N LONM12 =  35.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  23KT
LATM24 =  16.3N LONM24 =  30.4W
WNDCUR =   60KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS =  995MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  100NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW = 100NM


[Thunder44]

The persistent break in subtropical ridge over West Atlantic, with each successive trough moving off the East coast, makes me think Igor will most likely miss the Leeward Islands and the US. All the long range guidance shows this pattern continuing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

[Typhoon_Willie]

According to those model runs Cycloneye just posted Bermuda may be in the cross hairs.

[gatorcane]

12z gfs recurve

[hurricaneCW]

Hit on Bermuda from the gfs.

[ROCK]

Hit on Bermuda from the gfs.

yeah that doesnt count as a recurve...

[ronjon]

Latest CMC much further west. HWRF also hinting at Igor missing the trough and sneaking under the ridge. Not sure it's an open atlantic recurve yet.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010091112-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, I feel ike I seen this same storm before(ie earl)...

[SFLcane]

12z model plots...

[BigA]

12Z UKMET is to the west and slightly to the south of yesterday's 12Z run, at least through 72 hours.

12Z ECMWF still looks fishy (except for Bermuda and perhaps Atlantic Canada, and if you live in those areas that's a might big "except") but looks to be about 200-300 miles west of yesterday's 12Z and today's 00Z ECMWF run.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

685
WHXX01 KWBC 111844
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100911 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  1800   100912  0600   100912  1800   100913  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N  40.4W   18.2N  42.7W   19.3N  45.5W   20.2N  48.7W
BAMD    17.4N  40.4W   17.6N  43.3W   17.9N  45.8W   18.3N  47.9W
BAMM    17.4N  40.4W   17.8N  43.2W   18.4N  46.0W   18.8N  48.2W
LBAR    17.4N  40.4W   17.9N  43.4W   18.4N  46.6W   18.9N  49.6W
SHIP        60KTS          66KTS          75KTS          85KTS
DSHP        60KTS          66KTS          75KTS          85KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  1800   100914  1800   100915  1800   100916  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.4N  52.0W   18.6N  57.1W   18.2N  56.4W   24.1N  56.1W
BAMD    18.7N  49.6W   20.2N  52.8W   22.5N  56.0W   24.7N  59.6W
BAMM    19.1N  50.5W   19.3N  53.7W   21.2N  55.2W   24.7N  58.5W
LBAR    19.6N  52.4W   21.3N  56.8W   22.4N  59.0W   24.0N  60.2W
SHIP        97KTS         112KTS         123KTS         124KTS
DSHP        97KTS         112KTS         123KTS         124KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.4N LONCUR =  40.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  17.1N LONM12 =  37.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  16.6N LONM24 =  32.5W
WNDCUR =   60KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   60KT
CENPRS =  995MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  100NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW = 100NM