WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: FANAPI - Typhoon (1011/12W/Inday)
Wow, all they way from Keesler! On that note I suppose there are no other planes out here that could do that. The only one that would possible would be the P-3's. But that does not seem very intelligent.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 23.9N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 24.1N 119.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 201200UTC 23.9N 115.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 211200UTC 23.7N 111.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 23.9N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 24.1N 119.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 201200UTC 23.9N 115.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 211200UTC 23.7N 111.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Simone Lussardi
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 24
- Age: 48
- Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 12:00 am
- Location: Foshan, Guangdong, China
It is going ballistic at Ishigakijima, I think the outer eyewall is on the island, latest report is 109 kph sustained winds (around 60 knots) without gust report, and 974 hpa. Since they are 10 minutes winds (or even hourly average on Wunder) I guess the gusts might be in the order of 160 kph already, so is typhoon force, still from NE. They should increase as pressure still dropping and direction hasn't shifted to ENE.
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Simone Lussardi
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 24
- Age: 48
- Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 12:00 am
- Location: Foshan, Guangdong, China
In the Chinese Typhoon BBS, I was reading that the maximum gust ever reported on Ishigakijima was 70.2 m/s, or ~253 kph or ~138 knots, on July 31st, 1977. This is anyway lower than the maximum gust ever reported in Hong Kong. During Typhoon Wanda in 1962, Hong Kong Observatory, buried in the middle of the city, reported a gust of 140 knots with mean 10 minute winds of 78 knots. Much higher gusts were reported at other locations.
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SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 015
WTPN31 PGTW 180900
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.0N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.8N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.0N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.6N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 124.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 180900
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.0N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.8N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.0N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.6N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 124.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 23.9N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 24.1N 119.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 201200UTC 23.9N 115.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 211200UTC 23.7N 111.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 23.9N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.8N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.9N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.2N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.8N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 123.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z.//
NNNN
07fW40184
WTCI RCTP 181200 =
WARNING VALID 191200Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201011 (FANAPI 201011) WARNING =
POSITION 181200Z AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 23.8N ) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST ( 124.3E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS WEST 17KM/HR BECOMING 20KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 950 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 43 METER PER SECOND GUST 53 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 200 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 190000Z AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 23.8N ) ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST ( 122.3E )=
24HRS VALID AT 191200Z AT TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ( 23.9N ) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST ( 119.9E )=
48HRS VALID AT 201200Z AT TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ( 24.6N ) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ( 115.5E )=
72HRS VALID AT 211200Z AT TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 25.8N ) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST ( 111.8E )=
671
TCNA21 RJTD 181200
CCAA 18120 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14239 11243 12234 255// 92809=
TPPN10 PGTW 181225
A. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI)
B. 18/1132Z
C. 23.9N
D. 124.2E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 16NM OW EYE W/LG SURR SHADE
YIELDS DT OF 5.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/0653Z 23.8N 125.1E TRMM
18/0824Z 23.8N 124.9E SSMS
BRANDON
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 23.9N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 24.1N 119.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 201200UTC 23.9N 115.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 211200UTC 23.7N 111.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 23.9N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.8N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.9N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.2N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.8N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 123.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z.//
NNNN
07fW40184
WTCI RCTP 181200 =
WARNING VALID 191200Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201011 (FANAPI 201011) WARNING =
POSITION 181200Z AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 23.8N ) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST ( 124.3E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS WEST 17KM/HR BECOMING 20KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 950 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 43 METER PER SECOND GUST 53 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 200 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 190000Z AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 23.8N ) ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST ( 122.3E )=
24HRS VALID AT 191200Z AT TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ( 23.9N ) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST ( 119.9E )=
48HRS VALID AT 201200Z AT TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ( 24.6N ) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ( 115.5E )=
72HRS VALID AT 211200Z AT TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 25.8N ) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST ( 111.8E )=
671
TCNA21 RJTD 181200
CCAA 18120 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14239 11243 12234 255// 92809=
TPPN10 PGTW 181225
A. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI)
B. 18/1132Z
C. 23.9N
D. 124.2E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 16NM OW EYE W/LG SURR SHADE
YIELDS DT OF 5.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/0653Z 23.8N 125.1E TRMM
18/0824Z 23.8N 124.9E SSMS
BRANDON
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: FANAPI - Typhoon (1011/12W/Inday)
Ob from the miyaki showing 70kts, 80mph in the outer eye wall. Hope all are safe there.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 181122Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 16 NM
EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. A RADAR LOOP FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN AND ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY INDICATE TY 12W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYE-WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON AN EYE FIX IN IR AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS AND THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM
ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN (30 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM) INDICATING
60 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM
MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN (75 NM NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM) INDICATING 35 KNOT
WINDS GUSTING TO 53 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
FOLLOWING THE COMPLETION OF AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BY
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER EASTERN
CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
WTPQ20 VHHH 181345
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 181200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON FANAPI (1011) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 80 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 181122Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 16 NM
EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. A RADAR LOOP FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN AND ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY INDICATE TY 12W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYE-WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON AN EYE FIX IN IR AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS AND THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM
ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN (30 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM) INDICATING
60 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM
MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN (75 NM NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM) INDICATING 35 KNOT
WINDS GUSTING TO 53 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
FOLLOWING THE COMPLETION OF AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BY
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER EASTERN
CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
WTPQ20 VHHH 181345
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 181200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON FANAPI (1011) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 80 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
One more Video Update today at Westernpacificweather.com all, thanks for all that stopped by to view it!
On that note though, I'm out for the night, haft to get up by 5 for work and the 21Z update. Have a good night everyone.
On that note though, I'm out for the night, haft to get up by 5 for work and the 21Z update. Have a good night everyone.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: WPAC: FANAPI - Typhoon (1011/12W/Inday)
I posted the link to your midnight update over on the Taiwan site. Hopefully that will help ease a few minds so they won't feel completely in the dark. Someone over there said it was very calm, right now, with hardly any wind yet.
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: FANAPI - Typhoon (1011/12W/Inday)
Thanks for posting over posting over there, nice to get a liaison between the two sites. I hope all their stay safe and the info we give them really helps.
On that note, I really am off for the night.
On that note, I really am off for the night.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: FANAPI - Typhoon (1011/12W/Inday)
Seems like the WHOLE of Taiwan will receive the brunt of Fanapi.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: FANAPI - Typhoon (1011/12W/Inday)
Hi Everyone!
I am from Taipei -- been reading these forums, thanks for all the info and updates.
Right now it is still very calm here , barely any rain.
I am from Taipei -- been reading these forums, thanks for all the info and updates.
Right now it is still very calm here , barely any rain.
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phwxenthusiast
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