ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

MIMIC would tend to agree with your assertions gentlemen...

[Weatherfreak000]

The Dmax is realllly helping 97L out as far as convection and you can really see the structure improving already.


By tomorrow we should see the models verify and at least some organization.

[Blown Away]

TAFB has our low back.

Convection starting to build near the LLC this morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.

[Blown Away]

What do you think Luis, any chance of this becoming a named system?

[cycloneye]

What do you think Luis, any chance of this becoming a named system?

It may have a favorable window in the next few days.

[gatorcane]

Looking bleak for this invest. Goes to show you why we don't use the nam for the tropics.

Let's face it models were not bullish on development. You can see why.

[cycloneye]

models were not bullish on development

Go to the models thread as the 00z ECMWF has something to say about that.

[Blown Away]

Looking bleak for this invest. Goes to show you why we don't use the nam for the tropics.

Let's face it models were not bullish on development. You can see why.

Convection has been building in the area where the LLC is supposed to be. If this convection persists I can see 30-40% again. It does look better now than it did 6 hours ago.

[cycloneye]

And we got a floater for 97L.

[wxman57]

Don't really need ASCAT for these systems now, as they're moving into a region with a lot of obs. I can see two small rotations,the smallest is to the west just approaching the northern Leeward Islands. It's so tiny, though, that obs 28 miles west of its center do not reflect the circulation. Just a tiny eddy, really. The circulation near 17.3N/55.1W is larger, but not near any observation points yet. Could develop Sunday/Monday as it passes by the NE Caribbean, but chances maybe only 30%.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure if conditions will support another development burst.

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

Obs suggest that the small vortex near the northern Leeward Islands is not at the surface. It passed right over a few observation sites and there was no change in wind direction.

[TYNI]

I call this grasping at straws, scattered convection, unfavorable conditions, falling SSTs.... and don't ask me to explain - it's all there...

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Wow,no replies since my posting of the 2 PM TWO. Here is the 8 PM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

Wow,no replies since my posting of the 2 PM TWO. Here is the 8 PM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hey Luis seems that posts are drying up as the convection of 97L Thanks for keep us ionformed Cycloneye. I will continue to keep an eye on 97L in case of. Whereas looking at the latest sat pics convection is trying to make a slight come back but no more for the moment. Let's wait and see what could happen with 97L during the next 24-48H.

[Rainband]

i think the post above about straws sums it up bring on winter

[Gustywind]