ATL: PAULA - Models

[KWT]

Looks like the GFS more or less loses the system, still has the vort but it looks quite weak...looks like another run that we can throw out of the window as trash!

[SouthFloridawx]

66 Hrs

[SouthFloridawx]

Slowly North and East gradually so far...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F11%2F2010+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&model=GFS&area=WNATL&cat=&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US%2C+Central+America%2C+Caribbean&fcast=Loop+All

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looks like the GFS more or less loses the system, still has the vort but it looks quite weak...looks like another run that we can throw out of the window as trash!

There are still things you can learn from it. For instance, if a weak system can be drawn as far north as the GFS shows then a stronger systems might certainly be taken NE.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS has never been good for intensity. Track is another story though

It's important to note that 72 hours out, Paula is considerable NE of where the 12z run had her in the same timeframe.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you look at the 850mb Vorticity at 24 Hours, the system looks elongated... Which is not really the case right now... 12Z will be initiated better...

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the GFS more or less loses the system, still has the vort but it looks quite weak...looks like another run that we can throw out of the window as trash!

There are still things you can learn from it. For instance, if a weak system can be drawn as far north as the GFS shows then a stronger systems might certainly be taken NE.

Very well said, and we learned that GFS clearly isn't handling the strengthening trend we are witnessing Another sign that would point towards getting picked up.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Up... poof and out...

[KWT]

Looks like the GFS more or less loses the system, still has the vort but it looks quite weak...looks like another run that we can throw out of the window as trash!

There are still things you can learn from it. For instance, if a weak system can be drawn as far north as the GFS shows then a stronger systems might certainly be taken NE.

True to an extent but the GFS not having a good grip on the system leads to it elongating it too much and trying to reform the center more to the north, if you look at the vort map the 24hrs 850hpa low is up near the Yucatan channel and the low then tries to form way to the north...therefore because it hasn't got a grip on the storm it creates an errornous system which in turn messes up the whole run. Of course the outcome may well be the same once the system is correctly inputted but the GFS trying to form the center well to the north of where it actually is is going to cause trust issues with the model.

[SouthFloridawx]

Slowly North and East gradually so far...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F11%2F2010+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&model=GFS&area=WNATL&cat=&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US%2C+Central+America%2C+Caribbean&fcast=Loop+All

GFS Slowly kills it over Florida. Can still see some left over vorticity there after 100 hours..

[Macrocane]

I think we'll have to wait until 0z runs to have a better idea of what is going to happen with Paula, the models should have better input data by that time plus we're going to have more models to look at.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Up... poof and out...

A stalled, weaker system that far north would probably be sheared apart by the strong westerly flow following the passage of the front. The question is would a stronger Paula be pulled all the way through to the NE in advance of the front?

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z Nogaps @ 24 Hours

[SouthDadeFish]

If Paula can form an eyewall before it reaches the higher shear levels the models are predicting, it will be more resistant to wind shear. That doesn't mean it wont affect it, but it will have a harder time killing Paula.

[SouthFloridawx]

36 Hrs...

[KWT]

I should add quickly that the GFS solution is more realistic IMO on the 18z then the 12z solution of it rather hanging about in the Caribbean but we will see!

[SouthFloridawx]

48 Hours...

[SouthFloridawx]

60 Hrs...

[KWT]

Looks like the 18z models are a good deal quicker in taking this to the NW in the next 24hrs, if that were to occur then there caqn be few doubts of the eventual outcome...

However equally it remains to be seen whether that occurs or not...

Steering weakens right near the shear zone on the Nogaps, if it weakens a little quicker or the system is slower then it'll stay in the Caribbean for longer.