WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

Those "lines, are called in meteorological talk, is cloud lines, if over land they are cloud streets... "the more you know!"

Anyhow, they are exactly what you say, old man winter coming down, it is the cooler air moving over the warmer water. A good way to tell you temp will drop...... Wow I'm a geek,

[Infdidoll]

Rob and Infidoll did you see what I said aout teh storm. Look it JMA. It shifted west..wonder if that would do anything to the track

Yes, I went and checked it out. Looks like we're still in the cone with JMA, but they still have it forecast just to the east of us:



JMA is probably more worried about protecting people in Okinawa because if they didn't err on the side of caution, they'd get a roasting of PAGASA proportions. Since JTWC isn't run by the government of Japan, they can probably do a little more true-to-data forecasting. I think JMA is just playing their cards close. I don't blame them.

[StormingB81]

Well remember that last typhoon the wassupposed to hit us and turned north and the last minute and nailed north Okinawa. never know what will happend

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well JT is going to air on the side of caution as well, I know sometimes they play political, for example this storm, the long range it points directly towards the Kanto Plain where a bunch of bases are. The the size of the cold surge and given the fact your already seeing a strong Nrthly wind I am very confident this will remain to the E.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[StormingB81]

looks like an eye starting to form

[phwxenthusiast]

Those "lines, are called in meteorological talk, is cloud lines, if over land they are cloud streets... "the more you know!"

Anyhow, they are exactly what you say, old man winter coming down, it is the cooler air moving over the warmer water. A good way to tell you temp will drop...... Wow I'm a geek,

hmm, maybe that's why i was seeing some low 30-degree (Fahrenheit) readings in S. Korea...!!
a bit off topic, but i just want to ask how far south does snow usually fall in East Asia??

[RobWESTPACWX]

I've been in blizzards in Busan S. Korea so I know it goes that far S.

I think it really depends on where you are in pertaining to latitude, over china you have the tibet platue that goes as really far S. But you can see snow in Kyushu during the winter, what happens is a lake effect type effect where cold siberian air flows over the warm SOJ, and can dump a lot of snow. Thats the farther S I have seen it, I'm sure its gone farther....

[phwxenthusiast]

I've been in blizzards in Busan S. Korea so I know it goes that far S.

I think it really depends on where you are in pertaining to latitude, over china you have the tibet platue that goes as really far S. But you can see snow in Kyushu during the winter, what happens is a lake effect type effect where cold siberian air flows over the warm SOJ, and can dump a lot of snow. Thats the farther S I have seen it, I'm sure its gone farther....

ahh thanks, so maybe around 33-35N?? almost similar here in the US then right (except maybe in TX lol)?? and how deep is the snow usually?? sorry for the off topic haha, i'm just wondering if snow is possible in RP lol...

anyway, became a fan already in FB...!!:D

[RobWESTPACWX]

Cool PH!!!

I have never heard of snow as far south as the PI, that would be like seeing snow in the Caribbean. Would haft to be one massive cold surge for that.

[StormingB81]

I am looking at this more and more and more models are shifting tis storm closer to Okinawa

[StormingB81]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp2t.png

Here is a link..they are all shifting to the left toward Okinawa

[StormingB81]

From the Kadena Air Base face book page..they state we are STILL TCCOR 4...WOW!! Someone may get a talking to after this. Especially with the track lately heading more WNW and the models growing more and more bringing it closer to Okinawa they are not being on the safe side. I have all my guys preparing now we been all day. atleast we wont be running like chickens with our heads cut off when it is sounded

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF 00z out, slams Chaba into Okinawa at full force in 72 hours time. Already looked into flights to Naha....

[RobWESTPACWX]

ECMWF 00z out, slams Chaba into Okinawa at full force in 72 hours time. Already looked into flights to Naha....

I was thinking about going down as well....

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hmm, unless I can hop a MAC flight S I'm not going, Narita to Okinawa is about a grand, no way!

[RobWESTPACWX]

GFS is brining it farther W as well. I still think it will remain E of the island but much closer now, CPA is going to be less than 100nm, that will put Okinawa in the 65kt plus range.

[RobWESTPACWX]

O and not free flights S until Saturday. Guess I'll haft to wait for it to come here.

[Infdidoll]

WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.4N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 31.4N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 35.9N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 128.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 400 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG A NARROW EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH OF NORTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE ERODES. COMPARISON OF 500 MB CHARTS
FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THIS EXTENSION HAS YET TO
WEAKEN, VALIDATING THE PRESENT 6-HOUR MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING COLD SURGE OVER
EASTERN ASIAN WATERS, HAS BEGUN TO BUFFET THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TYPHOON. A WEAK INFLUX OF STRATOCUMULUS IS SNAKING IN TOWARDS
THE CENTER OF THE TYPHOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SURGE HAS YET TO MODIFY THE
TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH TY 16W. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM A T4.0 TO A T4.5. THE INITIAL FORECAST
INTENSITY REFLECTS THE NUMERICAL AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. MORE
RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEPLETED OVER THE CENTER. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ASSESSED AS A WEAKER SYSTEM INITIALLY, WHICH WOULD THEN REPLICATE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STABILIZED SOME AS
GFDN AND WBAR HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE PACKING. BEYOND
TAU 48 NOGAPS AND GFDN DIVERGE WESTWARD FROM THE PACKING AND
ILLOGICALLY DRIVE THE TY INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
SASEBO. JGSM AND EGRR (BEYOND TAU 72) TRACK THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
SLOW, PERHAPS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SURGE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE BY
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

620pm and STILL at TCCOR 4