ATL: RICHARD - Models

[calmbeforestorm1]

I think the models are pretty clear in their solutions at this point. If Richard stays weak as the GFS and ECWMF suggest then it will take a more northerly course being steered more by the lower level flow. If it becomes a stronger, larger system as the GFDL and HWRF suggest it will be steered more by the mid and upper levels and curve NE at some point and threaten points south from Tampa.

[Evil Jeremy]

Totally reminds me of the early stages of wilma at this point. I will reserve judgement though, when it's a little farther down the line.

Wilma's second model set (as a classified storm, don't know if they ran models on Invests at the time) with the second NHC forecast track:

[Frank2]

Here's the 12Z sounding for EYW (note the 50 kt winds at 300 mb):

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/eyw.gif

and while the shear is forecast to relax by next week, there's still going to be at least some shear and in addition the Gulf SST's are actually a bit below normal (the 80 degree line is down to Tampa), so I wouldn't board up just yet (lol)...

Frank

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wow this just sneeked up on me. I wrote it off a few days ago as a suicide storm into CA. That't what I get for taking my eyes off it the last 2 days. I should know how quickly things can change this time of year!
I predict little sleep the next few days as I get sucked into the board at night and running preps during the day until it is clear this isn't coming my way!
Except for Saturday...sister coming into town and we're going to ride roller coasters!
Lucky for her, she flies out Sunday morning, so she'll avoid any rough flight if there's a storm approaching a few days later.
Don't want a strong storm to hit anyone, but we could certainly use a little rain around here. Haven't seen any in a month!

[KWT]

Wow look like Wilma formed in more or less the same spot as this one has done looking at the model map of Wilma above, very interesting indeed!

[Blown Away]

Wow look like Wilma formed in more or less the same spot as this one has done looking at the model map of Wilma above, very interesting indeed!

IMO, it's pretty clear if the high pushes TD19 far enough into the Yucatan it dies, game over. If TD19 gets tugged north and skirts the NE Yucatan it will stay intact the trough will pick Richard up and he will go NE. IMO the ultimate track will go through somewhere from the FL Straits to Cedar Key.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Unless it slows down to spend a lot of time over the Yucatan, that flat bit of land will barely affect the strength of the storm and it will continue on without much difficulty.

When will these threads get renamed to Richard?? It's time.

[SFLcane]

Evil Jeremy can you link me to those old SFWMD models plots of wilma...thanks

[Evil Jeremy]

Evil Jeremy can you link me to those old SFWMD models plots of wilma...thanks

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... &year=2005

For those interested in models, FLHurricane.com has all model runs for all classified systems (not including invests, or the storm's time as an invest) since 2005. Just select the year you want from the menu:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormlist.php?year=2010

[cycloneye]

When will these threads get renamed to Richard?? It's time

When the 11 AM Advisory is released with TS Richard.

[SFLcane]

12z model plots...

[KWT]

Most of the early guidence on the 12z runs are going into the Yucatan, but then again alot of those are simply statistical models so may not be the best judge of whats going to happen.

[Blown Away]

Most of the early guidence on the 12z runs are going into the Yucatan, but then again alot of those are simply statistical models so may not be the best judge of whats going to happen.

IMO, follow the TVCN and climatology would suggest a right bias with the model runs. I expect a north NHC track shift at 11am.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
The HWRF is making the consensus tracks look bad IMO. With a ridge firmly placed over SFL it looks unlikely at this time Richard will follow the HWRF.

I'm just saying the TVCN might be not very effective atm.

[MWatkins]

I find it interesting how different things are from yesterday. Some were so sure this was going inland over CA, now the track is going to the FL panhandle?

And, it seems there is a lot of faith in the GFS ridge staying in place...which is interesting...because if all of the other models (including the Euro) were showing a system approaching the US coast from the east...we would see 1000 posts on how the GFS is out to lunch, and the other global models are always right...blah blah blah etc.

I would advise anyone reading this forum, especially if you are new, to be careful not to get caught up in this stuff.

That Wilma graphic that someone posted earlier in the thread, showing the model forecasts early in its lifecycle, should tell you all you need to know about how sure this science is...

Lots of heat in the Caribbean, a well defined circulation under relaxing shear...and model guidance that is correcting north. And I do mean correcting, remember, if you used the 12Z Monday GFS to make todays forecast, you would be tracking a east pac system now.

Also, don't get caught up in the shear discussion...Wilma was sheared as it intensified from a cat 1 to a cat 3 in the SE Gulf.

Keep an eye on this system if you are in Florida, especially as the weekend approaches. This part of the Caribbean is exactly where October Florida storms come from.

MW

[sfwx]

Excellent and level headed post Mike. ( as always! )

Eric

[Weatherfreak000]

And, it seems there is a lot of faith in the GFS ridge staying in place...which is interesting...because if all of the other models (including the Euro) were showing a system approaching the US coast from the east...we would see 1000 posts on how the GFS is out to lunch, and the other global models are always right...blah blah blah etc.[/QUOTE]

With all due respect Mr. Watkins, I totally 100% agree. On October 21st, if a storm were approaching from the East and wasn't at least at 75W with a ridge on top of it I would be absolutely convinced it was going to recurve. I am just THAT convinced this season will not allow anything to come from the East I think alot of people would wanna agree with that as well.

I get your point though of course and your completely right. I just kinda thought it was a funny kind of year to throw out that analogy.

[caneseddy]

12Z NAM is out and has Richard brushing Honduras and then heading towards Northern Belize/southern Yucatan on a WNW/NW heading

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS 78hrs


96hr, weaker and further south

120hrs emerging in BOC

144hrs takes what is left of Richard into Mexico again, no southern drought relief or Florida storm threat this run

[KWT]

Given the GFS had this out in the EPAC a little while ago, and then had this making landfall In S.Honduras a few days ago, I'm going to continue to think the GFS is overdoing that ridge for now...