ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[rockyman]

Not bad:

[tolakram]

Closest weather station: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IGREATEX4

[antonlsu]

I'm glad I don't pay for JB's services. On a side note, this is why nobody should focus on a particular cone or a particular model. Follow Ike as it was forecast to hit everywhere from the east coast of Florida to Brownsville.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

I remember that one, center was right over my house

[Ivanhater]

Good bit eastward shift in the track more in line with the models...

[StormClouds63]

500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

[Comanche]

Take a good look at the last couple of frames in this WV loop, it appears quite evident a larger piece of the ULL winds have affected the system as it is still running quite close to the ULL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[TheShrimper]

Sure puts an end to that W-SW (a few degrees at that) movement that someone was eluding to earlier.

[cycloneye]

Wow, Avila has been there since early this morning doing the TWO,s and the advisories.

[Aric Dunn]

where is Stewart oe beven when you need him.. that was a sad discussion ...

[Weatherfreak000]

I think the track is starting to really come into focus now with the center reformations. Might look to see even more East shifts.

[Frank P]

Good bit eastward shift in the track more in line with the models...

yep, and looks close to Morgan City La.. lets just hope the intensity stays at the forecasted level of 45 K.. but still this could be bad for the LA, MS, AL and Fl coasts as it relates to dumping copious amounts of oil on the beach and marshes.. strong southerly flow not what we need or want... hope the shear just kills it completely....

[SFLcane]

where is Stewart oe beven when you need him.. that was a sad discussion ...

Aric do you believe we'll get more northward adjustments to the forecast cone? thanks

[eastcoastFL]

It has been said over and over, remove the image tags if you are going to quote a post with an image.

if that was meant for me i dont even know what a image tag is. lol

[robbielyn]

Probably, but either way, for those that are looking for a shift east in the models, I don't think that is likely as the ridge is forecast to build west.

I agree with that, and if the LLC is outrunning the convection due to it's rapid west movement (and it is moving west pretty rapidly), that doesn't favor immediate intensification...

I so dont get where you see an llc outrunning the convection or going west for that matter. Its on a nw heading right now no stair stepping no westward its definitely nw.

[Aric Dunn]

where is Stewart oe beven when you need him.. that was a sad discussion ...

Aric do you believe we'll get more northward adjustments to the forecast cone? thanks

its likely as long as the NW motion keeps up... and It will probably last another 6 hours or so it is likely being dragged by the flow around the ULL and migrating towards the convection to its NW... I south florida landfall is looking more likely.

[rockyman]

Looks like the center is getting perilously close to being exposed (again). The shear obviously is still a factor.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah FrankP, that eastward poop in track put the highest winds and surge right over the oil spill. Everyone needs to be watchful as things area a little different for our area with Booms everywhere in the passes and bayous.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmm maybe my AL/FL. landfall wasn't so farfetched after all.

[StormClouds63]

With all this discussion of further development, remember there is a possibility, granted a small one, that this does not develop any further. Like many of you, I think this ends up a weak to moderate TS, but it might just fall apart (e.g. Chris in 2006 or Earl in 2004) and never strengthen. This is July, thankfully.

[Stormcenter]

Yes it sure is.

Looks like the center is getting perilously close to being exposed (again). The shear obviously is still a factor.