ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[americanre1]

Also with the feeding bands coming in from the Pacific and the GoM and the Caribbean, isn't there a chance that Alex might not weaken that much over land. There is a lot of warm air and moisture being fed into this system and since it doesn't have a deep convective center doesn't that mean the center can continuously move around while over land.

[Ivanhater]

Trough around the 4 corners region is digging strong. IMO this will allow the ridge to weaken a bit and pull on Alex

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[wxman57]

The temporary weakness in the ridge to the north, at least what the earlier models were showing. Looking more like the ECMWF was right in keeping the ridge stronger, though.

I'm starting to have doubts about that idea, the models of the last few days were lifting the system out to the NW yesterday but that still hasn't occured at all, not sure what really changes apart from perhaps a slight weakening of the subtropical high pressure ridge but I'm not sure its enough to lift it out to nearly the NW like what is expected. I still do think it'll get into the BoC though.

That's what I said, that the ECMWF looks to have been better in keeping the ridge stronger (and the trof influence weaker).

[Gustywind]

EURO nailed it

Once again confirms that is the best model,period. Speaking of the EURO,it has something over me for July 6 ,but that is another story in Talking Tropics.

Again another one Cycloneye... but on PR? ohoh!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Nederlander]

Just wondering if the same thing that is suppose to pull Darby NE might pull Alex N or NE in the next couple days.

Alex is what is supposed to pull Darby to the east

[Andrew92]

Just curious....what is that lighter red spot in about where the center of the storm is? Not to set any alarms, but could it be a developing eye?

-Andrew92

[Macrocane]

The winds have increased in San Salvador in the last few hours, some gusts upto 25 km/h (16 mph) have been registered althoguh the rains have not been very strong in the last 4 hours they have been persistent amounting 36 mm/1.42 inches.

[HurricaneStriker]

According to this RGB image, the center of Alex appears to be a bit southeast of the Turneffe Islands, or where the burst of convection (faintly visible) is. Only an hour, or maybe even minutes until Alex makes landfall.

[Nederlander]

Just curious....what is that lighter red spot in about where the center of the storm is? Not to set any alarms, but could it be a developing eye?

-Andrew92

you would probably want to look at vis imagery for signs of an eye forming.. i dont see that happening..

Edit: are there any radar stations in Belize or nearby?

[americanre1]

I have been lurking for the last couple years since being banned during Ike and Gustav. I evidently upset one of the moderators. So I will not do any -removed- like I did in the past. Just will ask questions about what I think could happen.

With that said. Is there a chance that the upper arm of Alex breaks off and forms the other system that some of these models are predicting? or is it a home brewed from the trough that is digging down???

If Alex all of sudden decides to move NW instead of W-NW like it is now. Would it have a better chance of landing more North than where the current forecast is landing?

[Swimdude]

I don't think that's an eye we're seeing... But whatever we saw in that frame was almost definitely over the center of Alex... I'm REALLY glad this doesn't have another 12-24 hours over the Caribbean--I can easily see it bombing away with that opportunity. It definitely has the structure to do that.

[msbee]

Belize radar
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

[KWT]

Looks like if that is the center its taking its time a little bit, because recon found the center pretty much in the same spot, a good 2-3hrs ago now so its probably safe to assume the center is a little to the west of the location the Vis.imagery suggests.

[HurricaneStriker]

Just curious....what is that lighter red spot in about where the center of the storm is? Not to set any alarms, but could it be a developing eye?

-Andrew92

you would probably want to look at vis imagery for signs of an eye forming.. i dont see that happening..

Edit: are there any radar stations in Belize or nearby?

Yes. There are radar stations in Belize. This one's from Philip Goldson Int'l Airport in Belize. You can notice a possible forming eyewall west of Halfmoon Caye.

[Andrew92]

Just curious....what is that lighter red spot in about where the center of the storm is? Not to set any alarms, but could it be a developing eye?

-Andrew92

you would probably want to look at vis imagery for signs of an eye forming.. i dont see that happening..

Edit: are there any radar stations in Belize or nearby?

I hear you on that, but really visible is just one image. I don't mean to doubt you, but sometimes an eye is forming that isn't all that "visible," if you know what I mean. But infrared and microwave can and do pick up on those sorts of things; hence my concern about the lighter red dot near the center. Plus, we have to remember this has been intensifying a bit more than forecast, and intensity forecasts are the trickier ones to figure out.

Does that make sense?

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Yeah, that radar helps a bit too. Any chance it could still intensify between landfall on that barrier island and the mainland?

-Andrew92

[Nederlander]

I have been lurking for the last couple years since being banned during Ike and Gustav. I evidently upset one of the moderators. So I will not do any -removed- like I did in the past. Just will ask questions about what I think could happen.

With that said. Is there a chance that the upper arm of Alex breaks off and forms the other system that some of these models are predicting? or is it a home brewed from the trough that is digging down???

If Alex all of sudden decides to move NW instead of W-NW like it is now. Would it have a better chance of landing more North than where the current forecast is landing?

Well, while some will say that these systems have a mind of their own, I tend to disagree with that statement.. Tropical cyclones are steered.. and in this case you have a strong subtropical ridge sitting on top of Alex.. now some models project this ridge weakening, but Alex's track has not shown any signs of that.. In fact, on this heading, it will spend a very short time over the BoC.. That trof just isnt strong enough to dive south and break down that ridge..I think the overall consensus now is Mexico.. As far as the upper arm breaking off? I guess there is a chance of that happening, but who knows.. I cant really make a valid comment on what the homegrown system is because I havent looked at the models yet..

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[HurricaneStriker]

Yeah, that radar helps a bit too. Any chance it could still intensify between landfall on that barrier island and the mainland?

-Andrew92

Yes, but very slightly. It won't be long until it hits the mainland.