ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[micktooth]

yep, and looks close to Morgan City La.. lets just hope the intensity stays at the forecasted level of 45 K.. but still this could be bad for the LA, MS, AL and Fl coasts as it relates to dumping copious amounts of oil on the beach and marshes.. strong southerly flow not what we need or want... hope the shear just kills it completely....[/quote]


From Dr. Masters on Wunderground:

"The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands."

[Bocadude85]

TD 3 looks like its weakening to me... what do you guys think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[tolakram]

I place the center between two areas of convection, and it appears SW outflow is improving. Any thoughts on this?

[thetruesms]

Yeah FrankP, that eastward shift in track put the highest winds and surge right over the oil spill. Everyone needs to be watchful as things area a little different for our area with Booms everywhere in the passes and bayous.

In Florida, at least, boom should be getting taken out of the water until conditions are appropriate to return it.

[jasons2k]

Hmm, just not buying the eastward shift yet. I think today's northern track will have a little impact in the track but more in the short term. I expect once it bumps into the ridge and gets a steady wnw motion again, the models will start to swing back to the west.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah FrankP, that eastward shift in track put the highest winds and surge right over the oil spill. Everyone needs to be watchful as things area a little different for our area with Booms everywhere in the passes and bayous.

In Florida, at least, boom should be getting taken out of the water until conditions are appropriate to return it.

I saw that on the news last night, I saw the boom being taking out of the bayous in P'cola but not sure about Pensacola pass and Pensacola bay and such. I'm sure they are watching it closely.

[ROCK]

One thing is for sure cloud tops are warming and its eating some nice dry air and modest shear....if anything attm its weakening......

[ROCK]

Hmm, just not buying the eastward shift yet. I think today's northern track will have a little impact in the track but more in the short term. I expect once it bumps into the ridge and gets a steady wnw motion again, the models will start to swing back to the west.

depends if the ridge is as strong as I expect to be....another model (that cannot be named) run tonight will be interesting...

[poof121]

It could be that inflow was impeded by the mountains on the eastern end of Cuba. It may improve once it gets away from those mountains. Also, the small upper high that it had over it earlier today is gone.

[tolakram]

One thing is for sure cloud tops are warming and its eating some nice dry air and modest shear....if anything attm its weakening......

High speed IR makes it appear more steady state, maybe even strengthening again.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[SFLcane]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

[HURAKAN]

Outflow improving and it has a big tail

[ronjon]

First bands showing up on Miami long range radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[dixiebreeze]

22/1745 UTC 22.4N 75.1W T2.0/2.0 03L -- Atlantic

[StormTracker]

A little off topic but has anyone noticed that the map at the top of the page says invest 97L AND TD three?

Yeah, saw that. Looks like it happened when the models shifted about 25 mins ago. It'll washout in a little while...

[Blown Away]

I guess we just sit and watch TD3 move NW, which is already a little N of the 5pm track. If TD3 goes to Miami I'll get some nice go to the beach and watch the waves weather!!!

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html


fixin to get sandwiched.....cloud tops warming....just a bubbling a burst here or there....

[supercane]

I place the center between two areas of convection, and it appears SW outflow is improving. Any thoughts on this?

Will see shortly if your pick of Long Island is correct, as recon flying very near there now:

[xironman]

Still hanging on to convection close to d-min, lets see what tonight brings.

[Aric Dunn]

recon found 43kt fl winds and sfmr of 46kts.. it very likely Bonnie