ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Nederlander]

I hear you on that, but really visible is just one image. I don't mean to doubt you, but sometimes an eye is forming that isn't all that "visible," if you know what I mean. But infrared and microwave can and do pick up on those sorts of things; hence my concern about the lighter red dot near the center. Plus, we have to remember this has been intensifying a bit more than forecast, and intensity forecasts are the trickier ones to figure out.

Does that make sense?

-Andrew92

I was referring to a vis loop.. but yeah you are correct in the fact that vis may not pick up on it if its covered up by the CDO.. the two best ways are probably radar, and local obs.. a significant drop in wind speed near the center, for example..

[KWT]

Yes, but very slightly. It won't be long until it hits the mainland.

I'd have thought probably would be able to get upto 60kts...

If you think about it, this system really isn't that far away from a hurricane, only 10kts...

[Nederlander]

whats the topography like of the land it will be crossing? is it pretty mountainous?

[HurricaneStriker]

Hmm. On satellite imagery, it would appear as Alex already made landfall. On radar, however, you can see the center clearer and that it's actually offshore.

[Ntxwx]

whats the topography like of the land it will be crossing? is it pretty mountainous?

Nope. Actually relatively flat.

[HurricaneStriker]

whats the topography like of the land it will be crossing? is it pretty mountainous?

Belize is flat, with the exception of the Maya Mountains. The Yucatan Peninsula and the areas immediately south of the BoC are flat too. However, once you get about 50 miles into the Mexican mainland outside of the areas I stated, it is full of mountains.

[Ptarmigan]

Alex is not too far from being a hurricane. Here is the NAM 84 hour radar simulation. It wants more towards the Texas/Mexico border.

[Nederlander]

Alex is not too far from being a hurricane. Here is the NAM 84 hour radar simulation. It wants more towards the Texas/Mexico border.

and the famous quote..... It's the NAM

[ronjon]

Boy, Alex is huge. It's affecting the weather over the eastern Pacific, CA, and the caribbean.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim16vis.html

[KWT]

Looks like its just going to end up missing that higher ground over Mexico, which is good for the system as it will stay over fairly flat land.

Also I think its safe to say the NAM is out to sea on its 18z run...well ok maybe not out to sea but you get the point

[wx247]

Looks like its just going to end up missing that higher ground over Mexico, which is good for the system as it will stay over fairly flat land.

Also I think its safe to say the NAM is out to sea on its 18z run...well ok maybe not out to sea but you get the point

How about out to lunch... maybe more accurate, if it were able to consume crow.

[HURAKAN]

Good pic

[KWT]

How about out to lunch... maybe more accurate, if it were able to consume crow.

Stil lstranger things have happened, there still seems to be sime uncertainty over the upper trough and how hard it digs down, we were just starting to get good model convergence as well!

Hurakan that is a superb photo!

[HurricaneStriker]

Here's webcam imagery from Ambergris Caye with what appears to be a few debarked trees and branches. Note that this Caye was within the tropical storm wind area.

[KWT]

How about out to lunch... maybe more accurate, if it were able to consume crow.

Still stranger things have happened, there still seems to be sime uncertainty over the upper trough and how hard it digs down, we were just starting to get good model convergence as well!

Hurakan that is a superb photo!

[HurricaneStriker]

Very close to landfall! Maybe within 10km from Belize City.

[KWT]

The Vis imagery lops show this sysgtem has really evolved in the last 6hrs, from a slightly sheared look still to a very impressive structure. I think its quite obvious it has now moved directly under the upper high now.

[americanre1]

Is it just me or has the forward motion pretty much come to a stall???

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[HURAKAN]

I have to disagree with the NHC. It has to be 70 mph or more if a few hours ago RECON found a rapidly intensifying system. Also, the pressure was 996 mb and dropping. I wouldn't expect the pressure to have remained at 996 mb until now. But they're the authority.