ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

NWS in Mobile places the low 70 miles south of Destin moving west.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=mob

[KWT]

Looks like a sheared naked low to me....but, there is always a chance that some convection could pop near the center thus warenting an upgrade....MGC

Oh I think there is enough present with this one to warrent an upgrade, but upper conditions don't look as good as they were first progged to be as Wxman7 said...now where have we heard that before hmmm....

[Stormcenter]

Isn't that what you called it the first time Ex-TD was in the GOM.

Anyway the convection this time around is much more inpressive especially for
a sheared system. It still has potential (IMO) as long as it remains over
water and the shear lessens somewhat. Neither of course is a done deal.

Looks like a sheared naked low to me....but, there is always a chance that some convection could pop near the center thus warenting an upgrade....MGC

[KWT]

The only good news is the sheared presentation may allow for slightly less rainfall then was expected as the convection is obviously on the southern side of the system so the rains won't come in until the low is inland.

I still think its going to develop myself...

[Aric Dunn]

Im sorry although I agree there is a LLC it is still a very sheared system and I guess by definition its a TD with maybe 25kt winds somewhere well removed from the center. But unless there is some sign the shear is going to decrease enough I dont see it making it to TS at this time. the center will never be able to consolidate under the deep convection because of the shear so its going to have a hard time maintaining convergence and thus and convection near the center... maybe if the shear drops say if the upper high shifts back east some then it could reach TS...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Elliptical banding features developing. Once these bands get more circular is likely when this thing will ramp up as the circulation tightens. Very likely that Recon will find a tropical depression when they head out at 18:00 UTC (2 PM EDT).

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The shear is being overplayed. Yes, 10-20 knots of northeasterly shear are affecting the eastern quadrant of the system. No, not the entire system is experiencing this shear...in fact anticyclonic flow is what most of the system is experiencing, along with 5-10 knots of shear. As it moves SW and then W shear will decrease to favorable conditions. Plus, it may even intensify over the Louisiana marsh land...conditions aloft are favorable there, plus the marsh is very moist and warm.

[Aric Dunn]

The shear is being overplayed. Yes, 10-20 knots of northeasterly shear are affecting the eastern quadrant of the system. No, not the entire system is experiencing this shear...in fact anticyclonic flow is what most of the system is experiencing, along with 5-10 knots of shear. As it moves SW and then W shear will decrease to favorable conditions. Plus, it may even intensify over the Louisiana marsh land...conditions aloft are favorable there, plus the marsh is very moist and warm.

unfortunately the shear is right over the LLC ! it does not matter if the northern half is under low shear and in this case there is no convection there anyway. the shear is not being overplayed its just a statement of current conditions. I dont think anyone said the shear will stay or that it wont strengthen just that right now the shear is holding the system back. So like usual we must wait.. lol

[KWT]

Yeah I agree MH1, to be honest the NHC could well pull the trigger within the next 6-12hrs IMO, and yeah its sheared but when has that ever stopped the NHC from upgrading in the gulf in the past...

[bbadon]

It looks to me on long range radar an MLC is developing in the heavier convection. Could this pull the LLC closer to the deeper convection? Also the MLC is south of the LA coast which could provide more time over water. Comments please?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Looks to me like the LLC has advected westward under the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

shear is increasing over the LLC as of the 15z cimss which is easily seen on satellite.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

20 knots is the maximum affecting it as of 15:15 UTC. Anticyclonic flow now above the system...probably why the COC was able to advect westward under the convection.

[vbhoutex]

It looks like extd5 is attempting to fill in on the N side of the llc with more and more banding beginning to appear. With the MLC obviously well south under the convection it still has a long way to go to stack and begin any real attempt at "organization". Still appears to be moving W to me with the LLC now almost S of P'cola.IF the LLC were to move SW vs W then I would begin to "worry" that this might make it to TS strength and possibly come further West before the ridge breaks down/splits and takes it inland somewhere over Southern LA.

[Aric Dunn]

20 knots is the maximum affecting it as of 15:15 UTC. Anticyclonic flow now above the system...probably why the COC was able to advect westward under the convection.

its north of the system and 20kts is a lot of shear.. should still make TD.. but TS is looking less likely..

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Regardless of the shear maps reality shows a highly sheared system with little or no convection to the north and east.

[MGC]

The center on radar looks to be heading west...not sure if the system is vertically stacked due to the shear...the surface circulation might be a bit east of the radar center....sure does not look to be intensifying much....not sure if NHC will upgrade at this time but ya never know. Slim shot it gets upgraded to TS...flip a coin for TD.......MGC

[ColinDelia]

CIMSS is showing greater divergence now. Looks to me like maybe the upper level high has moved slightly east? (going by the windbarbs presented)

[HurrMark]

I have seen systems that were initiated that looked worse than this. I think it is probably a 30-35 mph TD. Chances that it will become a TS might be slightly lower on my end...maybe 50-50.

[ColinDelia]

Divergence 6 hours ago


Divergence 3 hours ago


Divergence (most recent)