ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Mantains at 50kts.

AL, 01, 2010062700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 881W, 50, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[cwachal]

well that is a lot weaker then I thought they would go

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like it is gaining more latitude. Will be interesting with it likely to begin weakening if that causes it to turn back more westward!

[KWT]

Thats interesting because the offical advisory went for 55kts before 00z!!

Ah well there ya go, maybe a rare mistake there...

FWIW if Alex takes a more northerly track like the CMC/GFS and the GFDL, a great match would be the June 1921 hurricane, its almost an exact match for the GFDL and the track of this system thus far.

Dean4Storms, agreed, think its trying to 'climb' the coastline.

[littlevince]

Last 8 hours loop

[Ivanhater]

Hmm...that's a big move north

23.6N 93.7W

25.0N 94.1W

edit, this is bamd which should of been posted in the models thread

[x-y-no]

Alex is giving us a great illustration of how systems will often turn to take the shortest path across land. We've now got a big flare-up of convection at the closest point in the BOC, and that will tend to draw the LLC towards it.

[KWT]

Ah yeah that is a decent shift Ivanhater, I was just gonna ask what that was for actually!

x-y-no, I was saying earlier how I thought that could be rather suggestive of the possible emergence point, certainly interesting that its blowing up just as Alex reaches the coast.

[Ivanhater]

Trough digging strong

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-wv.html

[Javlin]

Alex is giving us a great illustration of how systems will often turn to take the shortest path across land. We've now got a big flare-up of convection at the closest point in the BOC, and that will tend to draw the LLC towards it.

I have never heard that one will be interesting to see if that does play out.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Trough digging strong

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-wv.html

And moving at a good pace as well. Monday should be very interesting if our ridge starts breaking down and moving east more than models are showing.

[hurricaneCW]

Alex is giving us a great illustration of how systems will often turn to take the shortest path across land. We've now got a big flare-up of convection at the closest point in the BOC, and that will tend to draw the LLC towards it.

Katrina is a perfect example of that. Took the shortest patch across Florida and barely weakened.

[Hurricane Andrew]

WHen do you think this will emerge? I think tommorow around noon time.
Intensity-35-45MPH

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[wxman57]

If my eyes dont pull tricks on me,I see a slight NW jog at the end.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

It's tricky because the convection is moving around the center, making it appear as though it may be jogging NW. Looks 270-275 to me. I'm wondering if it'll fully emerge into the BoC.

[ronjon]

We have to remember that Alex will be slowing down as the ridge weakens and it starts rounding the corner of the subtropical ridge. GFDL forecasts about 24-30 hrs for Alex to reemerge in the BOC so they'll be plenty of time to watch it.

[HURAKAN]

Center has to be inland between the two stations

[wxman57]

Trough digging strong

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-wv.html

That's pretty far away from Alex - up in Utah. I'm thinking well south of Tampico now, maybe final landfall around 20-21N. Good news for the NW Gulf offshore areas.

[Ivanhater]

Trough digging strong

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-wv.html

That's pretty far away from Alex - up in Utah. I'm thinking well south of Tampico now, maybe final landfall around 20-21N. Good news for the NW Gulf offshore areas.

Flow out ahead of it is already south to north in west Texas. It is moving fairly quicky as well. NHC mentions a slowdown int he BOC as the steering currents weaken so this may get tugged on. With the gfs, cmc and gfdl seeing this, I am closely watching this scenario...

[Nederlander]

Trough digging strong

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-wv.html

That's pretty far away from Alex - up in Utah. I'm thinking well south of Tampico now, maybe final landfall around 20-21N. Good news for the NW Gulf offshore areas.

what do you think the models (gfs, cmc, gfdl, nam) are trying to sniff out then?

[Ivanhater]

The early 00z models you like to post are responding to this as well