ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[StormTracker]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I've been hinting at that all day Ivan!

[Blown Away]

If you live in a mobile home or in a high rise on the beach a TS force wind can be very scary!!

[lebron23]

i understand what your saying but with the speed it is moving and direction all south florida will get is some squally weather...not to much to be concerned about

If it keeps moving this direction it moves straight across Miami Beach....

[ConvergenceZone]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

That's good because that will probably weaken it, which means there won't be much left of it once it re-emerges into the gulf...Good news!

[brunota2003]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

That's good because that will probably weaken it, which means there won't be much left of it once it re-emerges into the gulf...Good news!

Not necessarily. It would depend on where it hits, and even if it made landfall on S. FL, who is to say it stays onshore very long? More than one storm has crossed FL, only to rapidly reorganize in the Gulf and strengthen.

"Did you learn anything from that experience?" "Location, location, location" - Jeff Dunham and Achmed

[Countrygirl911]

wow been a few hrs since i have been on come back and the cone has moved to the east a little. How strong do u think it will get once in the gulf

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

That's good because that will probably weaken it, which means there won't be much left of it once it re-emerges into the gulf...Good news!

Not really, if it goes over the warm steamy swamps of south florida, history has shown that storms barely weaken, if at all. Some have even strengthened if they have a short jaunt before reentering the gulf.

A cross over that takes it further north through central florida would be better for decreasing this, but I doubt it could get any further than punta gorda, and will probably be more like a naples crossover instead.

[CronkPSU]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

That's good because that will probably weaken it, which means there won't be much left of it once it re-emerges into the gulf...Good news!

Not necessarily. It would depend on where it hits, and even if it made landfall on S. FL, who is to say it stays onshore very long? More than one storm has crossed FL, only to rapidly reorganize in the Gulf and strengthen.

including Katrina right about this time 5 years ago....

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Every hour that the NW motion continues, the more and more likely that scenario becomes. I wouldn't even be 100% shocked to see this storm come in slightly north of Miami, though that scenario is still pretty unlikely at this point. For now I am sticking with the forecast I made earlier in the personal forecast thread. A landfall near Miami followed by a WNW movement across the state and an exit near Charlotte Harbor. ( forecast can be viewed here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108650 )

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[TwisterFanatic]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

That's good because that will probably weaken it, which means there won't be much left of it once it re-emerges into the gulf...Good news!

Not really, if it goes over the warm steamy swamps of south florida, history has shown that storms barely weaken, if at all. Some have even strengthened if they have a short jaunt before reentering the gulf.

A cross over that takes it further north through central florida would be better for decreasing this, but I doubt it could get any further than punta gorda, and will probably be more like a naples crossover instead.

Also take in account this thing is moving pretty quickly at 15 MPH.

[ronjon]

I'm thinking that the ULL diving SW into the keys is "sling shoting" soon to be Bonnie to the NW. The path is pretty similar to yesterdays GFDL runs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Bocadude85]

Im wondering if td 3 will even make it to be ts Bonnie... I know recon found winds to support it but I mean this thing is a mess right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html


OK I see we now have Bonnie I guess I was wrong

[AdamFirst]

Im wondering if td 3 will even make it to be ts Bonnie... I know recon found winds to support it but I mean this thing is a mess right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

If they can declare Danny, they can declare anything.

[jasons2k]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
615 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

[hurricanefloyd5]

we have bonnie

[JPmia]

yeah i agree with the more northwestern trend that some mention above...i'll stick with my previous post that it will come in somewhere around upper keys and southern tip of peninsula (Homestead/Florida City)...the question will be strength...Max Mayfield noticeably pointed out that none of the computer models forecast it to be strong, but that's what they said about Irene and Katrina so I will hold judgement...these buggers have a way of surprising us when the water temps are close to 90 and shear goes down

Tropical Storm Bonnie per local Channel 10.

[TwisterFanatic]

Im wondering if td 3 will even make it to be ts Bonnie... I know recon found winds to support it but I mean this thing is a mess right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

You have your answer... lol

[Lane]

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


SUMMARY OF 615 PM EDT...2215 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 75.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[redfish1]

was the nw movement expected?

[marciacubed]

I was hoping that it wouldn't develop My husband is flying out of FTL @3pm tomorrow what are the chances he will get out?