ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HurricaneQueen]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

looks like the cavalry is on its way to pick up Earl.

Definitly looking NW looks the turn may of begun shall be good for PR and HIS and no worry to FL.

well, that's not helping us
we're getting slammed here

Barb, Great to hear that you are OK but not that you are getting slammed. Continue to be safe and we'll be anxious to hear all about it when the time comes. Amazed that you have internet!!

[sandyb]

i live in carteret county in NC how much of this do you think we will get the outer banks is north east of us but not that far

[Sanibel]

I think the 'wobbles' might be "pigtail" intensification jerks.


Track is obviously WNW and lifting. (I might trust NHC track on Earl)

[Gustywind]

Impressive

[HurricaneQueen]

we're getting slammed here

Are the electric lines ran underground on St. Maarten? I'm really amazed you still have power!

ravyrn,

Since Luis hit St. Maarten in 1995, part of the rebuilding included underground utilities. I'm not certain if everything is now underground but much better than before.

[TheBurn]

GOES-E LOOP CLOSE-UP

[hurricaneCW]

Earl is doing a classic stair-stepping pattern that is very common with strong hurricanes rounding a ridge of high pressure. There will be wobbles further to the NW and some wobbles closer to the west. It's the long term motion that matters. However right now the storm is generally moving more north than it was this morning or last night. I would estimate the 6 hour motion at 290-295. I won't be long before it moves even further to the NW though.

[cwachal]

BREAKING NEWS:
Earl is now 125 mph and pressure of 955 MB

[wxman57]

Honestly, any pro mets here chime in on NHC's projected 5 day cone? I'm visiting in NS now and have travel plans that if have to be changed, should be considered in the next day or two.

I think that there is a very good chance that Earl will impact Nova Scotia late Friday or Saturday. Hard to say precisely how strong it will be when it reaches the area. There is some very warm water in its path, just as with Juan a few years back. Could still be a Cat 2 up there.

[eastcoastFL]

Holy Cow! 125mph? This thing is really ramping up and fast!

[UpTheCreek]

i live in carteret county in NC how much of this do you think we will get the outer banks is north east of us but not that far

Sandy, it's way, way too early to make any predictions. I wouldn't even worry about it until Wednesday, especially if it starts getting pulled north soon.

[artist]

msbee in St. Martin says it has gotten worse there.

[GCANE]

[Fego]

Talked with Cycloneye by phone a few minutes ago. He is ok and his family too but there is not power were he lives. Until now, we don't have any report of fatalities, no major damages; a lot of rain, strong wind. I'll be, as a tv reporter, working in the east zone of the island, so if I can I'll keep you posted.

.

[Sanibel]

BVIGal must be getting strong Tropical Storm winds in the south quadrant right now.

[abajan]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

Absolutely. Ditto for the southern side. From the few storms I have witnessed here in Barbados, the difference in weather experienced when cyclones pass to our north, putting us on the weaker side, compared to when they pass to the south, is like night and day.

I would prefer a major cane passing to the north than a Cat1 passing to our south any day. Of course, distance from the center of circulation also has to be factored in.

[hurricaneCW]

Is there any chance of that parts of NJ could experience TS force winds? I would think that unless the TS winds spread out beyond 300 miles across while the storm curves to the N/NE, then there is no chance of getting TS force winds.

[ravyrn]

i live in carteret county in NC how much of this do you think we will get the outer banks is north east of us but not that far

Sandy, it's way, way too early to make any predictions. I wouldn't even worry about it until Wednesday, especially if it starts getting pulled north soon.

Bad advice. Definitely keep an eye on it. Wednesday would be too late to make any real preparations on the NC coast, as you'll begin feeling the effects of this storm within around 24hrs of noon on Wednesday. If you wait until Wednesday, you'll risk long lines and many stores being closed beginning Wednesday PM. NHC's plot suggests this thing is gonna start booking it starting Wednesday AM.

You need to start planning today, and based upon it's track over the next 24 hrs, make preparations tomorrow on Tuesday, if not today. Make sure you fill up your vehicle with gas today as well as any gas cans you got handy.

[UpTheCreek]

Is there any chance of that parts of NJ could experience TS force winds? I would think that unless the TS winds spread out beyond 300 miles across while the storm curves to the N/NE, then there is no chance of getting TS force winds.

Come on, CW! You know there's a chance! Most of NJ is in the latest cone. Why wouldn't there be a chance? I've read your posts, you know better!

[hurricaneCW]

Is there any chance of that parts of NJ could experience TS force winds? I would think that unless the TS winds spread out beyond 300 miles across while the storm curves to the N/NE, then there is no chance of getting TS force winds.

Come on, CW! You know there's a chance! Most of NJ is in the latest cone. Why wouldn't there be a chance? I've read your posts, you know better!

Well I'm basing this on Earl following the center of the NHC forecast cone, not the possible west or east shifts of the center track which could still happen.