ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Gaining latitude

[Nederlander]

Gaining latitude

Are we sure that its not just our eyes? do we have coordinates to back this up? I mean i agree Ivan, it does appear that way.. but I also know that in the past, I would have bet my unborn children on a storm changing its heading, only to find out that convection was playing tricks on me..

p.s. two years ago i said I would never wobble watch again.. looks like im doing it again

[ROCK]

almost half way across the Yucatan....pulling up also....so much for not even entering the BOC theory...

[paintplaye]

Gaining latitude

Are we sure that its not just our eyes? do we have coordinates to back this up? I mean i agree Ivan, it does appear that way.. but I also know that in the past, I would have bet my unborn children on a storm changing its heading, only to find out that convection was playing tricks on me..

p.s. two years ago i said I would never wobble watch again.. looks like im doing it again

He posted cord earlier and they showed a NW heading.

[americanre1]

FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm ALEX Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270559
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN YUCATAN BUT STILL PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CHETUMAL
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[americanre1]

Been moving NW since last advisory

7PM CDST 17.4N/88.1W....

9PM CDST 17.7N/88.4W

These were the earlier coordinates

[HurricaneRobert]

moved twice as far west than north

[bahamaswx]

Still got a long way to go to the BOC. Pretty impressive to still be firing so much deep convection over the center while inland. Drawing from the EPAC is definitely helping.

[BigA]

Here's a radar loop from Belize. Gives a pretty solid indication that Alex is moving northwest.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

Said radar also seems to show that Alex's core is getting more organized as it moves inland.

Off topic: I hope that no one's life or livelihood is damaged or destroyed by the storm, but it's pretty cool that my namesake storm (I am Alex) is not a sheared fish-spinner. After 1998's Alex, my dad gave me a lot of good natured teasing.

[americanre1]

And it looks like he is trying to take the quickest smoothest path to the BoC.

[Ivanhater]

[americanre1]

Here's a radar loop from Belize. Gives a pretty solid indication that Alex is moving northwest.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

With that radar, if he was over right now, he would be blowing up big time. So we can be thankful that he is in land right now. I could really seeing him blow up in the BoC and GoM in the next few days. He is really impressive over land just wait until he gets back over water. Have a center that wasn't super deep should actually help him go through RI as soon as the center is back over water.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

This loop shows that it may be going further north than than the models are forecasting - look at the upper level winds digging down to the south ahead of Alex. The future track depends on that pretty strong trough coming in from the northwest.

[americanre1]

This loop shows that it may be going further north than than the models are forecasting - look at the upper level winds digging down to the south ahead of Alex. The future track depends on that pretty strong trough coming in from the northwest.

Real nice convective burst over the center. From my untrained eye, I would swear he was actually getting stronger over land. Has that ever happened before???

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nederlander]

Real nice convective burst over the center. From my untrained eye, I would swear he was actually getting stronger over land. Has that ever happened before???

yes.. for a brief period of time.. i believe Andrew did if I am not mistaken

edit: but i do not think that is whats happening here.. cloud tops look to be warming

[somethingfunny]

I believe that eye structure was always there as Alex strengthened offshore but it was obscured by clouds, and as the cloudtops warm over land the "eye" is just becoming exposed. Fay did something similar....tropical storms don't gain strength over land, but some maintain their structure better than others, mainly based on topography.

Alex's core looks really, really solid. This will have no problem re-strengthening once it re-emerges over water. And x-y-no's theory was correct - it's taking the shortest route possible over the Yucatan.

[RattleMan]

I believe that eye structure was always there as Alex strengthened offshore but it was obscured by clouds, and as the cloudtops warm over land the "eye" is just becoming exposed. Fay did something similar....tropical storms don't gain strength over land, but some maintain their structure better than others, mainly based on topography.

Alex's core looks really, really solid. This will have no problem re-strengthening once it re-emerges over water. And x-y-no's theory was correct - it's taking the shortest route possible over the Yucatan.

Shortly after landfall, a well-defined eye feature developed in both satellite and radar imagery, possibly due to the decreasing wind shear and increasing low-level frictional convergence. Despite land interaction over South Florida, Fay strengthened slightly and it is estimated that its peak intensity of 60 kt was achieved around 1800 UTC that same day when the center was near the western end of Lake Okeechobee.

It can happen...

[somethingfunny]

The 5AM Discussion is very worrying.

[Chacor]

The newest discussion does not bode well.

WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.3N 89.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.2N 91.9W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 92.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.6N 95.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.2N 97.4W 85 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 99.7W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.