ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[supercane]

Why do the TS Warnings extend WAY out into the Atlantic and off of Tampa, But nothing for land 20 miles next to the warnings?

Not true. Refer to your local NWS office for the inland TS warnings. Screen capture from NWS Miami website:

[somethingfunny]

Can someone explain why the ULL wouldn't serve to pull Bonnie northward and then over the top of it? I understand that they're basically moving in tandem, but I'd like a more detailed explanation if someone could please help me out with this.

well first, the ULL is moving faster than Bonnie is, and secondly, you have a high pressure ridge building westward, so thats not going to let Bonnie head that much north in the long term.. the ridge is your main steering current here..

Thanks! It seems like the ULL is having some influence in the short term at least. I'm interested to see what happens after the ULL's shadow moves away from Bonnie.

[lrak]

Why do the TS Warnings extend WAY out into the Atlantic and off of Tampa, But nothing for land 20 miles next to the warnings?

Not true. Refer to your local NWS office for the inland TS warnings. Screen capture from NWS Miami website:

The waters may have TS conditions like wind.

[redfish1]

has anyone else noticed the storm jog more NE or NNE?

no all i see is the convection getting pushed to the west due to the ridge building in

[supercane]

has anyone else noticed the storm jog more NE or NNE?

The storm center is not colocated with the convection. Those following the recon thread noticed that the center stayed on the south/southwest side of the convection all afternoon due to shear, and in fact the last center fix was west of the prior one. Of course, center relocation is possible, but without recon, it would be hard to know for certain. The setting sun will get rid of visible, and the next recon flight won't be until around midnight.

[tgenius]

Storm seems to have shrunk a bit in size but on AVR infrared seems like the REDs are starting to grow in size a bit...

[HURRICANELONNY]

Didn't they write books on Eddy's and there effect on storms? I know there were alot of storms that intensified just before landfall.

[alienstorm]

My projected path takes across northern Andros Island just north of Miami Beach and out somewhere near Ft. Myers tomorrow evening.

Storm moving wnw - nw at about 15 mph

[Blown Away]

Using the 2215 UTC (6:15) position of 22.9N and moving at 14 mph, and I think that forward speed is increasing, Bonnie will reach 23.9 around 10:15 pm and that is 4 hours earlier than she was supposed to reach that latitude. Bonnie was forecasted to reach 23.9 at 06z (2am). Assuming the NW motion continues for a few more hours Bonnie could go 50+ miles farther north before swinging west?? Am I crazy ?

[lrak]

Using the 2215 UTC (6:15) position of 22.9N and moving at 14 mph, and I think that forward speed is increasing, Bonnie will reach 23.9 around 10:15 pm and that is 4 hours earlier than she was supposed to reach that latitude. Bonnie was forecasted to reach 23.9 at 06z (2am). Assuming the NW motion continues for a few more hours Bonnie could go 50+ miles farther north before swinging west?? Am I crazy ?

Sounds good to me.

[cycloneye]

Jim Cantore is in North Miami beach.

[supercane]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Hurricane]

did the track go down???? it looks like it to me

[redfish1]

did the track go down???? it looks like it to me

explain what you are saying

[jlauderdal]

weather has changed here in the last hour, much darker to the east, low level clouds heading in a SW direction and wind increasing, its easy to tell we are now in the envelope of the system

[Bocadude85]

Using the 2215 UTC (6:15) position of 22.9N and moving at 14 mph, and I think that forward speed is increasing, Bonnie will reach 23.9 around 10:15 pm and that is 4 hours earlier than she was supposed to reach that latitude. Bonnie was forecasted to reach 23.9 at 06z (2am). Assuming the NW motion continues for a few more hours Bonnie could go 50+ miles farther north before swinging west?? Am I crazy ?

Well it has gained some longitude now the 8pm posistion is 23.1n 75.9 w.... I still do not think it will hit the mainland my best guess is central keys though I will say if it goes over Andros Island that I could be wrong

[southerngale]

did the track go down???? it looks like it to me

No. They don't adjust the track for intermediate advisories.

[Hurricane]

did the track go down???? it looks like it to me

explain what you are saying

I was asking if the track shifted west.

[tgenius]

On the latest AVR Loop, I'm seeing more and more RED (heavy) convection around center.. What time is Dmax?

[Macrocane]

Well this is a surprise to me I was out for 2 hours and now I find a tropical storm a little increase in organization, it's a very interesting system.