WTIO31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 59.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 59.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.3N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.2N 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0N 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.0N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.1N 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.3N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.7N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BECOME COVERED BY A DENSE
LAYER OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL EYE IS
STILL VISIBLE ON A RECENT 1713Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE IMAGE ALSO
INDICATES THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, IN AN AREA OF STRONG GRADIENT CONVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTH-
WEST AND NORTHWEST. A 1711Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG SOUTHWEST MON-
SOONAL FLOW SUPPORTING A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS MOVING INTO TC 03A. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 6.0/6.5 DVORAK FROM PGTW, WHICH INDI-
CATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF TC 03A AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST OF OMAN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
AS WELL. THE TRACK FOR PHET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST OF PHET REMAINS IN PLACE. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR ALLOWING TC 03A TO BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. INTENSITY FOR TC 03A IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS INCREASING ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR FROM OMAN INTO TC 03A WEAKENS THE SYSTEM. AS
PHET REMAINS OVER OMAN, THE DRY AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, WITH ONLY A SMALL PERIOD IN WHICH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC) WILL BE BACK OVER WATER. AS THE LLCC QUICKLY
TRACKS INTO INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR TC
03A TO RE-INTENSIFY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
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