ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[perk]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

still heading west???

Florida versus Texas posters ... let the fireworks begin.

I certainly hope not. A week of that would be counter productive. Mods be on the look out.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

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WHXX01 KWBC 011908
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1908 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100801  1800   100802  0600   100802  1800   100803  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.8N  36.3W   10.3N  38.0W   11.0N  40.6W   11.8N  43.5W
BAMD     9.8N  36.3W   10.5N  38.3W   11.4N  40.6W   12.6N  43.1W
BAMM     9.8N  36.3W   10.5N  38.4W   11.5N  41.0W   12.7N  44.0W
LBAR     9.8N  36.3W   10.2N  38.4W   11.0N  41.3W   11.9N  44.6W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          46KTS          57KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          46KTS          57KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100803  1800   100804  1800   100805  1800   100806  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  46.6W   15.4N  53.6W   18.2N  60.1W   20.7N  65.6W
BAMD    13.9N  45.7W   16.3N  50.5W   18.0N  54.1W   18.8N  56.7W
BAMM    14.3N  47.3W   17.7N  53.8W   20.9N  59.0W   23.8N  62.8W
LBAR    12.8N  48.2W   14.5N  55.0W   19.8N  61.5W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        67KTS          75KTS          71KTS          66KTS
DSHP        67KTS          75KTS          71KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.8N LONCUR =  36.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =   9.4N LONM12 =  35.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  34.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[MWatkins]

If it were weak, this would be ok...If the 00z is stronger like I think it will be..it will be even further north (Possibly not even getting to the Gulf)

Curious why you would say that? What would be the feature that would draw a stronger system north, because I am not seeing it in the EURO model.

At least not in the mean layer/500MB analysis.

MW

[lonelymike]

Hate to ask a dumb question. Just looked at the 12z Euro and it shows nothing at 240. Shows Colin approaching the Bahamas and then vahooom.....it vanishes

[KWT]

What I will say is the models really do create quite a potent upper trough, it IS going to gain possibly significant latitude at some point between say 120-168hrs, but the models differ with the speed quite a lot and thats the key...because between that time the greatest pull northwards is over say 65-75W. If the system is in place then its going to get quite alot of lift and a recurve would be likely, but if its a little slower, then as the models show the upper trough eases a little and a path towards the WNW and land would be quite probable.

Toughie!

[TheBurn]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Hate to ask a dumb question. Just looked at the 12z Euro and it shows nothing at 240. Shows Colin approaching the Bahamas and then vahooom.....it vanishes

at 240 it's off the upper TX coast. That's a different system at that time in the bahamas.

[ConvergenceZone]

Question for some of you saying that it's possible that it MAY move towards the Gulf. Does that mean that these models posted above that show it heading towards the east coast or going fish, are recruving it back to the west later in the period?

[artist]

If it were weak, this would be ok...If the 00z is stronger like I think it will be..it will be even further north (Possibly not even getting to the Gulf)

Curious why you would say that? What would be the feature that would draw a stronger system north, because I am not seeing it in the EURO model.

At least not in the mean layer/500MB analysis.

MW

Mike, what are your thoughts at this time? Man, I miss your video updates.

[lonelymike]

Hate to ask a dumb question. Just looked at the 12z Euro and it shows nothing at 240. Shows Colin approaching the Bahamas and then vahooom.....it vanishes

at 240 it's off the upper TX coast. That's a different system at that time in the bahamas.

Uh ok went back and looked and didn't see it. Someone wanna post it?

[Ivanhater]

If it were weak, this would be ok...If the 00z is stronger like I think it will be..it will be even further north (Possibly not even getting to the Gulf)

Curious why you would say that? What would be the feature that would draw a stronger system north, because I am not seeing it in the EURO model.

At least not in the mean layer/500MB analysis.

MW

Comparing the 00Z run from last night and today's 12z run, the trough digging over the North east looks more amplified on the 12z run.

Here is last night's run at 144 hours.



Now 120 hours on today's run has a more amplified trough digging over the NE and a weaker ridge.



Now, given that the trough is more amplified on the 12z EURO, if this storm were as strong as last night's run, I feel it would be further north close to the GFS and CMC solution.

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong MW..chances are I am

But it does seem the upper air pattern is close to the GFS and CMC through 144 hours at least...

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

18z SHIP run

Shear at 36kts by 108 hours.

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                  *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL912010  08/01/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    34    40    46    57    67    72    75    74    71    69    66
V (KT) LAND       25    29    34    40    46    57    67    72    75    74    71    69    66
V (KT) LGE mod    25    28    31    35    39    48    58    67    70    69    66    62    58

SHEAR (KT)        11     9     9     8     7     4     2    15    13    21    28    36    21
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     1    -3     0     0     1     4     0     0     0    -2    -5    -2
SHEAR DIR         38    59    63    50    57   283   320   283   284   260   249   255   232
SST (C)         28.9  28.7  28.6  28.4  28.3  28.2  28.1  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.2  28.4  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   149   147   146   144   143   142   141   147   146   146   141   143   141
ADJ. POT. INT.   150   150   149   148   147   147   145   149   146   141   133   132   128
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     7     7     8     9    10    10    11    10    10
700-500 MB RH     77    79    78    75    72    69    64    60    60    59    61    60    61
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     7     7     8     9    11    13    12    14    14    13    15    14
850 MB ENV VOR    36    35    32    30    26    21    11    -2   -16   -25   -34   -30   -39
200 MB DIV       114   112    92    68    67    35    19    19    48    34    42    46    47
LAND (KM)       1469  1479  1499  1480  1394  1253  1181  1192  1090   963   758   653   675
LAT (DEG N)      9.8  10.2  10.5  11.0  11.5  12.7  14.3  15.9  17.7  19.3  20.9  22.3  23.8
LONG(DEG W)     36.3  37.4  38.4  39.7  41.0  44.0  47.3  50.6  53.8  56.6  59.0  61.1  62.8
STM SPEED (KT)     8    11    12    14    15    17    18    18    17    15    13    12    10
HEAT CONTENT      37    34    30    31    33    33    40    73    69    59    33    43    38

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/  6      CX,CY:  -5/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  679  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  95.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   6.  13.  21.  26.  31.  34.  35.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   9.   9.   8.   6.   4.   0.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   2.   4.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   9.  15.  21.  32.  42.  47.  50.  49.  46.  44.  41.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST     08/01/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.8 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  90.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 123.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  78.6 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   8.9 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  33.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    66% is   5.2 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    54% is   6.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    36% is   7.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    14% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST     08/01/10  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST     08/01/2010  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[KWT]

Those models sure are arching towards the East coast, its certainly one of the more likely options. If this one reaches say 35N then it'll scoot out to sea without any risk of it being pushed back west, but if it doesn't then the risk will still remain.

[Javlin]

Personally and I think alot on the forum know beyond 4-5 days it's all speculation at this point and time.This season thus far has had it's far share of TUTT's and ULL's that models do poorly on for the most part in the down range in time picture.I feel that model support for the N Leewards is justified for paying attention to what may be coming but when it gets to the islands then start looking at the models for the rest of the picture.

[LaBreeze]

I am praying that this scenario does not play out.

[ROCK]

Question for some of you saying that it's possible that it MAY move towards the Gulf. Does that mean that these models posted above that show it heading towards the east coast or going fish, are recruving it back to the west later in the period?

some are..some are taking it out to sea....speed, how strong....alot of variables

[MWatkins]

SHIPS sees 36 (less 5 knots for directional adjustment) knots of shear for one 12 hour forecast period then backs it down to 21 knots again...and even then the increase in shear only lasts about 24 hours before it's backed down.

All systems on the general forecast trajectory of 91L have to deal with the TUTT...but the big and strong ones can bust through it like Georges, Floyd, Ike etc.

Also, the "big" reduction in the SHIPS model is a result of negative 850MB environmental vorticity (in the model) more than the shear anyway. Not sure if I buy that in the extended range...

Interesting that the RI probabilities are way higher than the sample mean...

MW

[KWT]

some are..some are taking it out to sea....speed, how strong....alot of variables

Yeah just about anything is possible right now, all I'll say for now as you said is speed is key, as it how deeply the upper trough digs anfd how strong this one is, for example if it becomes a strong hurricane before 60W, the odds of a fish increases quite markedly.

[Countrygirl911]

wow i leave for church come back and the model runs are comming in showinf SWLA and texas line and that it looks to be a monster i pray that is not the fact and that it just becomes a fish or dissapears. Nearly 5 years after Katrina they have a monster heading that way as of now i know model runs changes very often expecially this far out but lord help us all if that model run shows to be on the right track.