ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

A MLC appears to be forming on the southern portion of the disturbance. Surface reports don't indicate there's anything at the surface. The system appears to be moving WNW and although development in the WCAR appears to be limited, it could develop in two days or so in the BOC. Certainly, it needs to be watched for development.

[RL3AO]

I am a total weather novice but I don't see evidence of the incredibly stron TX high on most of the models. What is happening here and why won't this get into the GOM proper?

There is a high over Texas/Eastern New Mexico. If you look at the wind directions you can see the anti-cyclonic motion.

[HURAKAN]

Quite a view!

[RL3AO]

For the number of complaints about how slow the season is right now, what do those people think its going to be like when the MJO turns positive and the shear goes away? We could be looking at the E storm by Monday.

[Weatherfreak000]

I would sure love for all the naysayers on this invest to come own up to their crow I cannot lie I would have said the odds 92L would look better than 93L this morning had to be at least 15 to 1. Now you know why I dont gamble.

[vbhoutex]

I agree with Sandy that there isn't any evidence of any surface turning yet, but definitely appears to be an MLC trying to form on the Southern side of the disturbance. Will definitely be keeping an eye on this one for a few days.

[NOLA2010]

Is recon planing to go into this anytime soon?

[HURAKAN]

Is recon planing to go into this anytime soon?

Unfortunately, No. But I would guess that the NHC will schedule at least one in the GOM in a few days.

[StormClouds63]

For the number of complaints about how slow the season is right now, what do those people think its going to be like when the MJO turns positive and the shear goes away? We could be looking at the E storm by Monday.

Earl by this coming Monday?

[TwisterFanatic]

With the high moving back to the north and east in the next couple days would that affect the track of this?

[HURAKAN]

Next week we may get two systems in the Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

nice pic

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Next week we may get two systems in the Gulf.

Hurakan - can you elaborate for those of us who are novices?

[HURAKAN]

Next week we may get two systems in the Gulf.

Hurakan - can you elaborate for those of us who are novices?

Sorry, computer models are indicating that a low pressure will form in the northern part of the GOM. I say two bc I theorize that this system will also get into the GOM but in the southern part.

[mattpetre]

Wow, this system sure shows how quickly the weathervane of opinions can change in a day. I am with others on this that it will at least be raising eyes in the GOM. I think the high in TX is being given too much credit at this point for this storm. Seems to be retrograding and degrading both according to models and satellite presentation.

[HURAKAN]

An interesting image

[chzzdekr81]

Wow, I wrote this off yesterday, and now look at it!

[wxman57]

Wow, this system sure shows how quickly the weathervane of opinions can change in a day. I am with others on this that it will at least be raising eyes in the GOM. I think the high in TX is being given too much credit at this point for this storm. Seems to be retrograding and degrading both according to models and satellite presentation.

Don't get too excited about it coming northward into the Gulf. The high is actually forecast to build east-southeastward over the next few days. I'm looking at an overlay of the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro with the 500mb heights plotted to 10 meter intervals. High center near El Paso, TX today moves east to the Hill Country tomorrow and right out into the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. With that kind of flow pattern, this system will track across the southern Yucatan tonight/tomorrow, into the BoC then west right into Mexico, probably south of Tampico.