ATL: RICHARD - Models

[cycloneye]

12z GFS does not follow other global models that have the northern tracks as it dies in Belize.

[PTrackerLA]

May see some big changes in the 12z GFDL and HWRF since they are run off the GFS.

[caneseddy]

May see some big changes in the 12z GFDL and HWRF since they are run off the GFS.

I would not be so sure....GFS has kept this system down south while the GFDL and HWRF have been the northernmost models for the past several runs so they had been seeing something that the GFS has not..but who knows what will happen

[Typhoon_Willie]

Interesting discussion on how Richard may move in the near future...

THE STORM HAS BEEN ERRATICALLY MOVING DURING MOST OF ITS LIFE...AND
A LONG-TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 135/5. CURRENTLY RICHARD IS UNDERGOING
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AS IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BY LATE TOMORROW...RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO
THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE THE
KEY FEATURE IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST. GENERALLY THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD
ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS
THE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE
RIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. CONSIDERING THAT THE
NEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE.

[ronjon]

May see some big changes in the 12z GFDL and HWRF since they are run off the GFS.

I would not be so sure....GFS has kept this system down south while the GFDL and HWRF have been the northernmost models for the past several runs so they had been seeing something that the GFS has not..but who knows what will happen

Part of it might be intensity with both HWRF and GFDL at major hurricane status while GFS keeps it weak.

[dwsqos2]

And right now, it is weak, very weak, so perhaps the gfs will verify.

[DESTRUCTION5]

May see some big changes in the 12z GFDL and HWRF since they are run off the GFS.

Id be surprised to see big changes since GFS has been in the same page for 2 days....If it verifies it has to get call of the year honors.

[clfenwi]

12 NOGAPS is ever so slightly north of its 00Z run (but south of the 12Z GFS). Runs the storm westward along the Honduras coastline. 84h:



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[Bocadude85]

If you want to see the top 10 analogs for Richard then:
Go to this link and scroll down to Richard and then open the drop down box and click top 10 analogs and then click display.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/

[Typhoon_Willie]

A snippet of what the Hurricane Center is thinking regarding the GFS Global models
and the rest of model guidance concerning the movement of Richard.


GENERALLY THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD
ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS
THE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE
RIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. CONSIDERING THAT THE
NEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE.

[Ntxw]

Guess we'll have a better idea with fresh ECMWF data.

[wzrgirl1]

A snippet of what the Hurricane Center is thinking regarding the GFS Global models
and the rest of model guidance concering the movement of Richard.


GENERALLY THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD
ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS
THE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE
RIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. CONSIDERING THAT THE
NEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE.

I wonder if this mind set will be a trend......

[MWatkins]

I wouldn't count on the GFDL or HWRF shifting.

In fact, looking at the 48 to 72 hour period there is less mid-level ridging to the north of Richard than in the 0Z guidance.

I think the hurricane specific models are taking Richard into that initial weakness, which is why they have it on the Florida coast in less than 5 days.

That will be the ballgame. If Richard is a weak to mid tropical storm and sitting close to 16N in 72 hours like the GFS shows, it likely misses that weakness and gets driven westward as a skinny ridge to the north fills back in.

The GFDL and HWRF have a significantly stronger system almost up near 20N by that time.

If Richard gets close to that latitude, it gets picked up and becomes a big problem.

The next 48 hours are the key to this whole thing...if Richard begins a NW movement later today or tonight as per the hurricane models, we will have a good idea on how this will play out.

MW

[Ntxw]

12z CMC kills Richard in the Yucatan and entrenches him into the train of moisture leading the trough up into the southeast.

[wzrgirl1]

I wouldn't count on the GFDL or HWRF shifting.

In fact, looking at the 48 to 72 hour period there is less mid-level ridging to the north of Richard than in the 0Z guidance.

I think the hurricane specific models are taking Richard into that initial weakness, which is why they have it on the Florida coast in less than 5 days.

That will be the ballgame. If Richard is a weak to mid tropical storm and sitting close to 16N in 72 hours like the GFS shows, it likely misses that weakness and gets driven westward as a skinny ridge to the north fills back in.

The GFDL and HWRF have a significantly stronger system almost up near 20N by that time.

If Richard gets close to that latitude, it gets picked up and becomes a big problem.

The next 48 hours are the key to this whole thing...if Richard begins a NW movement later today or tonight as per the hurricane models, we will have a good idea on how this will play out.

MW

Mike,

Which way are you leaning towards? I trust your instincts.

[caneseddy]

Good analysis as always Mike

It looks like the NHC agrees with Richard becoming stronger and getting pulled into the weakness...we shall see

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes Mike the next 48 hours will be key as to where Richard goes.

[caneseddy]

12z HWRF rolling in shortly

Edit: Has Richard as a Cat 1 hurricane in 48 hours

[Vortex]

12z HWRF rolling in shortly

Edit: Has Richard as a Cat 1 hurricane in 48 hours

Do you have a link? At work so missing my links..Thx

[caneseddy]

12z HWRF rolling in shortly

Edit: Has Richard as a Cat 1 hurricane in 48 hours

Do you have a link? At work so missing my links..Thx

Here you go.....it's the Penn State site

http://tc.met.psu.edu/