ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

On the latest AVR Loop, I'm seeing more and more RED (heavy) convection around center.. What time is Dmax?

After 3 AM.

[Hugo1989]

I told them Tuesday that Bonnie would be born within 48 hours.

[lonelymike]

Jim Cantore is in North Miami beach.

Next Jim Cantore is going to be airlifted to the Deepwater Horizon site and make hourly reports from a rowboat....if we could only be so lucky

[HouTXmetro]

That center just keeps relocating under the convection more and more North. Very Weak.

[Hurricane]

That center just keeps relocating under the convection more and more North. Very Weak.

The center doesn't keep relocating north...?

[TexasF6]

If Cantore is in Miami? Bonnie will definitely NOT be going that way!!!! j/k. This is just some WX Channel humor for the rookies on the board. Bonnie is moving wnw apparently.....we'll see if she jogs wsw with that ridges crunch!!!

[Ivanhater]

I told them Tuesday that Bonnie would be born within 48 hours.

There is no need for the large font and bold.

[redfish1]

If Cantore is in Miami? Bonnie will definitely NOT be going that way!!!! j/k. This is just some WX Channel humor for the rookies on the board. Bonnie is moving wnw apparently.....we'll see if she jogs wsw with that ridges crunch!!!

starting to make the turn...just like i thought

[CourierPR]

Dudes, she is moving NW or 310 degrees as of 8 pm

[HouTXmetro]

Dudes, she is moving NW or 310 degrees as of 8 pm

Yep I see no indication of WNW...NW to NNW to relocating NNE is what I been seeing all day.

[supercane]

SSD Dvorak classification:
22/2345 UTC 23.3N 76.1W T2.5/2.5 BONNIE -- Atlantic
22/1745 UTC 22.4N 75.1W T2.0/2.0 03L -- Atlantic

agrees well with operational intensity.

[cpdaman]

seems like a lot of shear is still effecting it via the ull

how small of a system is this?

[tgenius]

seems like a lot of shear is still effecting it via the ull

how small of a system is this?

It seems like Sheer took a big chunk of the system BUT looks to be forming more compactly and stronger (alot of deep reds on AVR infrared)

[ROCK]

seems like a lot of shear is still effecting it via the ull

how small of a system is this?

its about the size of a Texas super cell in spring... ....she might be moving / relocating but she wont be doing that much longer...another few hours and she will start to feel the ridge....

[supercane]

how small of a system is this?

From the 5PM advisory, the extent of TS winds in four quadrants is as follows:
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
or, as averaged in the 8PM advisory,
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 45 MILES...
70 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

[redfish1]

wxman57... please tell me your thoughts on Bonnie...when she will turn to the west and your projected landfall...i highly respect your thoughts

[Blown Away]

Bonnie blowing up on the IR with almost all the convection on the east side. If Bonnie continues to deepen over the next few hours I wonder it will allow her to push a little farther north?? IMO, if Bonnie comes in around the FL tip most of the energy will swing over Miami?

[TexasF6]

I believe the center is still to the south and west of the CDO? The apparent NW or NNW motion is the illusion of the CDO, not necessarily the COC. This is just my two shillingsworth. Not official. It appears to my naked eye with a zoom on a good recent satpicloop that the center is still decoupled and racing WNW. Where are my ProMets at? Thoughts??? (pardon the typos, i never got the asdfg jkl;' thing down!)

[Ikester]

Yes, I don't think the center has moved much north. I'm lead to believe it is an optical illusion as the t-storms are being blown off the center to the north by the shear. IMO, you can clearly see how the center has maintained a WNW track while the tstorms were almost removed from the COC.

[tgenius]

From what I remember, Lightning in a Hurricane is a very rare thing; but is it so uncommon in Tropical Storms?