ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Blown Away]

Yes, I don't think the center has moved much north. I'm lead to believe it is an optical illusion as the t-storms are being blown off the center to the north by the shear. IMO, you can clearly see how the center has maintained a WNW track while the tstorms were almost removed from the COC.

What would be blowing the storms NE towards a giant ridge? No it's the convection expanding N and NE, she is getting stronger IMO.

[Florida1118]

Looks NNW-NW to me. It might be the convection because i cannot pick out the center exactly. i think we will have some cone and Advisory Shifts at 11pm.
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[Ivanhater]

It is not an illusion. Bonnie has been moving NW.

This from the 7pm advisory

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

Now, it will turn more to the wnw later, but how much latitude does she gain before that is the question.

[Steve H.]

Gee, once again it sounds like lot of posters wants these storms to end up in their backyard. After going through 2004, you can have them all. Don't want any storm banging on my door. Bonnie - go away.

[CourierPR]

Yes, I don't think the center has moved much north. I'm lead to believe it is an optical illusion as the t-storms are being blown off the center to the north by the shear. IMO, you can clearly see how the center has maintained a WNW track while the tstorms were almost removed from the COC.

The Pro Mets that run the NHC say NW, 310 degrees at 8 pm. I'll go with their expert analysis.

[Ikester]

It doesn't matter which way it is moving. The point is the ridge is to its north and any hope of this skirting the west coast of Florida or ending up in AL or the FL panhandle is remote at best.

[Blown Away]

Gee, once again it sounds like lot of posters wants these storms to end up in their backyard. After going through 2004, you can have them all. Don't want any storm banging on my door. Bonnie - go away.

Very few if any here in SFL, not so much for the big state across the GOM.

[djmikey]

Don't we normally get an 8pm EDT model release? I dont want to keep refreshing if there's no point...lol...I'm also guessing the new forecast track will be released at 11pm EDT, right?

[supercane]

What would be blowing the storms NE towards a giant ridge?

The exact same ULL that has sheared 03L's convection the last few days, including this afternoon when recon was examining the system.

No it's the convection expanding N and NE, she is getting stronger IMO.

It's possible that the system has become more vertically stacked, but I would wait for recon to confirm that supposition, and I suspect NHC will, too, before drastically upping the intensity. More likely, the center remains on the SW edge of the convection, as NHC indicated in their 8PM update.

[Ikester]

Yes, I don't think the center has moved much north. I'm lead to believe it is an optical illusion as the t-storms are being blown off the center to the north by the shear. IMO, you can clearly see how the center has maintained a WNW track while the tstorms were almost removed from the COC.

The Pro Mets that run the NHC say NW, 310 degrees at 8 pm. I'll go with their expert analysis.

No need to even get into it on here. Don't feel like justifying myself to you or ivanhater when he flexes his arm...

[Florida1118]

Gee, once again it sounds like lot of posters wants these storms to end up in their backyard. After going through 2004, you can have them all. Don't want any storm banging on my door. Bonnie - go away.

Very few if any here in SFL, not so much for the big state across the GOM.

Trust me, After 2004/05, I'm going to stick with tracking them very far away from me.

[tgenius]

I live In Kendall.. which is about 20 miles or so north of Homestead.. so if it comes in around Middle/Upper Keys or Homestead.. I stand to get most of the rain and wind.. am I worried? Nope. Just like a typical rainstorm (though last thurs night around 11pm it felt like the world was erupting with a rain storm that lasted about 15 min!)

[CourierPR]

It doesn't matter which way it is moving. The point is the ridge is to its north and any hope of this skirting the west coast of Florida or ending up in AL or the FL panhandle is remote at best.

The ridge may be to the north of the storm but it's still moving NW at a pretty good clip and that is the point.

[Blown Away]

What would be blowing the storms NE towards a giant ridge?

The exact same ULL that has sheared 03L's convection the last few days, including this afternoon when recon was examining the system.

No it's the convection expanding N and NE, she is getting stronger IMO.

It's possible that the system has become more vertically stacked, but I would wait for recon to confirm that supposition, and I suspect NHC will, too, before drastically upping the intensity. More likely, the center remains on the SW edge of the convection, as NHC indicated in their 8PM update.

No doubt the LLC is on the SW edge of the convection, but the convection has been expanding from the LLC to the N and NE. Still mostly on track, maybe a hair NE.

[T'Bonz]

When is GOES eclipse tonight? The links at the NOAA site regarding the schedule are broken.

[ozonepete]

Bonnie blowing up on the IR with almost all the convection on the east side. If Bonnie continues to deepen over the next few hours I wonder it will allow her to push a little farther north?? IMO, if Bonnie comes in around the FL tip most of the energy will swing over Miami?

I would think that Bonnie would move more west as it deepens. The deeper the circulation gets, i.e. the higher into the upper levels it gets, the more it will encounter more westerly upper level winds around the bottom of that STR building out out to the west. The ULL is moving westward pretty quickly now, so it looks like the STR will have more influence. Of course, what it does once it gets into the Gulf will be another really interesting question. The models certainlt seem to be pointing to a recurve with each successive run...

[Ivanhater]

Consider this an overall warning. The it's coming here or there is getting old. People are trying to get useful information about what is going on with the storm and do not want to skim through post after post about "it's coming to..."

Feel free to PM me if you have anything to add to this, otherwise cut it out.

[ObsessedMiami]

Gee, once again it sounds like lot of posters wants these storms to end up in their backyard. After going through 2004, you can have them all. Don't want any storm banging on my door. Bonnie - go away.

Very few if any here in SFL, not so much for the big state across the GOM.

We need a designation, call it the Cantore Box, where a storm is poised to hit both SFL, then eventually the Gulf Coast. While inside that box, the forum posters duel to swing the conversation to their own respective states. While a storm is in the Cantore box, I think a special disclaimer should be posted in each posting.

Stay safe no matter where you are this weekend.

[TampaFl]

Why do the TS Warnings extend WAY out into the Atlantic and off of Tampa, But nothing for land 20 miles next to the warnings?

Not true. Refer to your local NWS office for the inland TS warnings. Screen capture from NWS Miami website:

This is from NWS Tampa: Off shore waters have tropical storm warnings.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/

[Bocadude85]

It doesn't matter which way it is moving. The point is the ridge is to its north and any hope of this skirting the west coast of Florida or ending up in AL or the FL panhandle is remote at best.

I dont think anyone is saying its going to hit the west coast of Florida what they are saying is the more nw it moves the more likely a SE Florida landfall will occur