ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[tailgater]

Winds now out of the SE at Georgetown
Current Weather Conditions:
Georgetown, Exuma, Bahamas, The
(MYEG) 23-28-30N 075-46-00W 3M

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Conditions at Jul 22, 2010 - 08:59 PM EDTJul 22, 2010 - 07:59 PM CDTJul 22, 2010 - 06:59 PM MDTJul 22, 2010 - 05:59 PM PDTJul 22, 2010 - 04:59 PM ADTJul 22, 2010 - 03:59 PM HDT
2010.07.23 0059 UTC
Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT) gusting to 32 MPH (28 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Lightning observed
Precipitation last hour 0.03 inches
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.8 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
ob MYEG 230059Z AUTO 14018G28KT 10SM -RA SCT016 BKN025 OVC030 26/25 A2980 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND W P0003

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[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

Consider this an overall warning. The it's coming here or there is getting old. People are trying to get useful information about what is going on with the storm and do not want to skim through post after post about "it's coming to..."

Feel free to PM me if you have anything to add to this, otherwise cut it out.

Thanks, Michael. I don't have all night to sift through the wishcasts, especially when they don't have any science included.

Sorry I don't have time to post the steering winds right now, but we should take a good look at those CIMSS steering charts for different levels if we want to figure out where it'll go depending on its strength. I'll try to post later if I can.

[tgenius]

Latest

Sandy what's your take, do you think the windfield is expanding (seems to be getting a bit more organized)?

[Recurve]

Tampa -- you know about the zone forecasts? -- local NWS offices issue forecasts for zones, the Florida coastal zones extend 20 miles out, then farther out are open water zones, so a certain zone has a forecast and the next zone up might not have the same forecast, so the coastal zone might not have a TS wind warning, say, and the farther out zone does because the effects are expected to be different.

If this isn't what you're asking...but why a zone farther down isn't expected to have winds as high as a zone farther away -- they're forecasting that it will be weaker at the coastal zone but stronger over the open water zone even though it's farther from the track is my assumption. HTH.

[Comanche]

Well, looking at this, Bonnie looks like a hemophiliac that has been cut.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[supercane]

Don't we normally get an 8pm EDT model release? I dont want to keep refreshing if there's no point...lol...I'm also guessing the new forecast track will be released at 11pm EDT, right?

Look in Models thread: viewtopic.php?p=2019035#p2019035

[cycloneye]

Don't we normally get an 8pm EDT model release? I dont want to keep refreshing if there's no point...lol...I'm also guessing the new forecast track will be released at 11pm EDT, right?

Look in Models thread: viewtopic.php?p=2019035#p2019035

I just posted the 00z run.

[Nimbus]

The ULL is rolling west so fast Bonnie may have some opportunity to intensify. If I were living anywhere near Homestead I would be putting a couple gallon jugs of water in the freezer. Even a tropical storm can knock out the power for a day or two. She should stop chasing the convection north pretty soon and return to a WNW or eventually even westerly track as the ridge drops in. Maybe we will even get some shear from the northeast?

[chzzdekr81]

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

[Florida1118]

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

I dont. To me, it sems more like Texans want it. Im confused by what people are saying...Is it moving West, NW, N...? i know the I.A. says NW, but that was a little bit ago and I cant tell if the convection is moving or the COC is moving.

[sphelps8681]

Gee, once again it sounds like lot of posters wants these storms to end up in their backyard. After going through 2004, you can have them all. Don't want any storm banging on my door. Bonnie - go away.

Very few if any here in SFL, not so much for the big state across the GOM.

I don't think that is a fair assumption. I think it works both ways. It is very much in both camps imo. I have seen this happen every year since I have been on this website.

[Recurve]

Don't want it here, just want it past.

First shower bands are being dragged into the Upper Keys by they're being pulled by the ULL spinning away, not the TS complex yet.
Nice sunset here tonight.

Code: Select all

WFO Key West                  00:00     86     70     59     NE4 G11     1014.4
Key West Peary Court    23:58    86    74    68    E0 G8    1013.9
Cudjoe Key                    00:01    86    75    71    NE12 G19    1014.4
Ramrod Key                    23:50    85    74    70    NE12 G22    1014.3
Big Pine                            00:00    85    85    100    E7 G18    1013.4
Marathon (Little Venice)    23:59    85    75    73    NE4 G12    1014.0
Duck Key                            00:03    85    77    78    NE10 G16    1015.4
Long Key                            00:01    85    78    79    NE22 G30    1014.7
Upper Matecumbe Key    00:03    86    77    75    NE12 G20    1013.8
Islamorada                    23:59    85    76    74    E13 G22    1014.7


[chzzdekr81]

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

I dont. To me, it sems more like Texans want it. Im confused by what people are saying...Is it moving West, NW, N...? i know the I.A. says NW, but that was a little bit ago and I cant tell if the convection is moving or the COC is moving.

Most Texans are saying W, Most Lousianians (I think that's what they're called, LOL) are saying WNW-NW, and Most Floridians are saying Northwest.

[HURAKAN]

Sandy what's your take, do you think the windfield is expanding (seems to be getting a bit more organized)?

I think it looks more impressive than it actually is. The environment is getting better but it takes time for a system to develop. I also think that it will pass closer to Miami-Dade than the center track may suggest. But overall, I expect a rainy and windy day across South Florida with most of the area maybe getting sustained tropical depression winds and gusts of tropical storm intensity.

The "windfield" in most cases is an illusion or mirage!! Because RECON found TS winds in an area, it doesn't mean that the entire circulation is producing winds of tropical storm intensity. I think it may expand as the system slowly becomes better organized but nothing major to worry about!! Moving quite fast too, that helps.

[tpr1967]

Texas and Florida tug of war LoL. I believe she will turn to the WNW later tonight and increase in forward speed. JMO.

[cycloneye]

Moving quite fast too, that helps.

Sandy, that also helps to not have a big flooding event,not the type we have endured in Puerto Rico as the wave moved slowly.

[fox13weather]

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

No forecasting here ..just -removed-

[umguy]

The next update should provide some answers on track.

[Myersgirl]

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

I think you are mistaken, most people here want information that is beyond what we can get on the Weather Channel or our 5 minute weather segment. I am going to the Keys on Sunday by boat and this matters to me in my ordinary life. Just an education for you about "most people -removed-".