ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

Also, let's not forget that even if Earl's worst misses the US east coast, the official forecast takes the center of a strong hurricane directly over Halifax, a city of 375,000 folks. Someone's going to get this storm, unfortunately.

Going to get it? Someone already has gotten it...Our friends in the Islands!

[TexasF6]

Glad you are ok msbee!!!

[Mello1]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/07L.EARL/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

For many of you wondering ...
This map has the closest distance the eye of Earl will come to many locations if it follows the exact expected track.

.mil's cone has the entire eastern seaboard from north of Savannah, GA to Portland, ME, and as far east covering the eastern half of the Carolina's, most of PA and NY state and all states east of those.

I'm just wondering why the NHC's cone is narrower than the military's cone?

This storm is coming a bit too close for comfort for me.

[Cainer]

Also, let's not forget that even if Earl's worst misses the US east coast, the official forecast takes the center of a strong hurricane directly over Halifax, a city of 375,000 folks. Someone's going to get this storm, unfortunately.

And it takes Earl almost directly over me, in Yarmouth NS. Yarmouth has had hurricane a couple hits in the past few years (Kyle, Noel), both borderline TS/Cat 1. I'm not too concerned about Earl yet, as it will be weakening and moving quickly, but after seeing the aftermath of Juan in Halifax I'll be sure to never underestimate the power of even a weak Cat 2 at landfall.

[hurricaneCW]

I hope the turn is as sharp as forecast because if for any reason it's more of a N/NNE turn toward SNE, then someone would get blasted by hurricane force winds and maybe even a direct hit. Earl is gradually getting larger as well and could expand even further once it has an EWRC, so a lot of coastal areas could be seeing TS force winds.

I also wonder if Fiona could change things, even a bit.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow...Between Danielle and Earl I'm sure the Atlantic ACE numbers have gotten a big boost...

SFT

[sponger]

Either way, this will be a large coastal flooding event.

[RL3AO]

934mb!

Holy RI batman.

[SouthFLTropics]

934mb!

Holy RI batman.

Geez, talk about bombing out...I don't know if we have seen RI like this since Charley in 04'...

SFT

[CrazyC83]

If there is ANY good news, it is that if it is RI'ing now, it has lots of time to weaken...but also spread out...

[KBBOCA]

What was Danielle's peak intensity? (winds / pressure). I'm wondering if Earl now has her beat?

Also, I'll re-ask my earlier question: Has Earl officially made landfall in the islands? One of the satellite shots earlier seemed to show Sombrero Island (I think?) in the eye of the storm. So, just wondering if that counted as a landfall for Earl.

Thanks in advance for any answers. Earl sure is a terrifying-looking storm that has just been incredible to watch. I'm thankful that so far it seems the Islands have been spared much worse damage. It could have been so much worse given the looks of him now!

[CrazyC83]

What was Danielle's peak intensity? (winds / pressure). I'm wondering if Earl now has her beat?

Also, I'll re-ask my earlier question: Has Earl officially made landfall in the islands? One of the satellite shots earlier seemed to show Sombrero Island (I think?) in the eye of the storm. So, just wondering if that counted as a landfall for Earl.

Thanks in advance for any answers. Earl sure is a terrifying-looking storm that has just been incredible to watch. I'm thankful that so far it seems the Islands have been spared much worse damage. It could have been so much worse given the looks of him now!

Danielle's peak was 942mb and 115 kt (although I think it was a bit lower than that), so she has been beaten.

[BigB0882]

Good question about landfall. Does it have to be populated to count as landfall? If not then it has made landfall on Sombrero Island. If that is a requirement then I the answer seems to be "no" it has not.

[CrazyC83]

If they find winds much stronger, expect a Special Advisory around 6 pm, perhaps forecasting Cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

Good question about landfall. Does it have to be populated to count as landfall? If not then it has made landfall on Sombrero Island. If that is a requirement then I the answer seems to be "no" it has not.

Not sure what the rules for that are. It would be nice if there was at least a barometer on that island though.

[ColinDelia]

.mil's cone has the entire eastern seaboard from north of Savannah, GA to Portland, ME, and as far east covering the eastern half of the Carolina's, most of PA and NY state and all states east of those.

I'm just wondering why the NHC's cone is narrower than the military's cone?

This storm is coming a bit too close for comfort for me.

The navy cone is the area of US Navy ship avoidance. They take the average track error and add it to the expected radii of 34 knot winds. Also, the width of their cone at 72 hours is maintained through 120 hours.

[HurricaneBelle]

Good question about landfall. Does it have to be populated to count as landfall? If not then it has made landfall on Sombrero Island. If that is a requirement then I the answer seems to be "no" it has not.

I don't think it matters what the population of the land mass is - otherwise it would called a "peoplefall" instead of a landfall.

[Swimdude]

934mb!

Holy RI batman.

Geez, talk about bombing out...I don't know if we have seen RI like this since Charley in 04'...

SFT

Not to be captain obvious here, but... Remember Wilma?

[KBBOCA]

A possible Cat 5 with much of the east coast in the cone. YIKES. There goes all the talk of a slow, boring season!

I wonder if S2K might want to make the 2010 fundraiser more prominent somehow right now, given that I suspect the traffic here is going to spike incredibly.

I'm safely FAR away from Earl on the coast of W. Africa at the moment, but I'm certainly thinking of all those who might be feeling really nervous right now. Glad S2K is around to keep everyone up to date. Thanks mods for all you do.

[HurricaneBelle]

934mb!

Holy RI batman.

Geez, talk about bombing out...I don't know if we have seen RI like this since Charley in 04'...

SFT

Not to be captain obvious here, but... Remember Wilma?

Not to mention Humberto. Many storms over the past six years have undergone RI.