ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldn't say the eyewall is open. Just not as intense to the NE

the EWRC looks to be nearly complete. The IR is starting to improve once again. This may have weakened as much as it is going to in the short term.

Does not look like any dry air has entrained

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... TYPE=amsre

TPW values are unusually high for a TC

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.6N 59.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 59.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.0N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.9N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.1N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.7N 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.4N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH
OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM PGTW AT 5.5/6.5. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED, BUT REMAINS ON A
CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MASIRAH
INDICATE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 115 NM AWAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 03A, WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE SOUTH-
WEST MONSOONAL FLOW. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT
DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC
03A. THE DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE INTENSITY VALUES
TO REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A MOVES OVER LAND, INCREASING DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE TRACK FOR PHET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTH-
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF PHET REMAINS IN PLACE. A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR ALLOWING TC 03A TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. TC 03A WILL TRACK MORE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS TC 03A BEGINS TO HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS IT CROSSES OVER WATER
INTO PAKISTAN, BUT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 OVER LAND.
THE TRACK SPEEDS FOR TC 03A HAVE BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWER TRANSITION TO THE
MID-LATITUDES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE MODEL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

Also, the 39Ghz analysis gives us a better image of the low level circulation than 89Ghz does, since 39Ghz has much less signal attenuation by ice crytals above the top of the rain layer. The 39Ghz from the same time as your image shows the low level eye is further south than the upper level portion and also shows that the low level circulation has lost a lot of symmetry. Could that be one reason this cannot complete the EWRC? Sorry I can't display the 39Ghz image. Photobucket is dead at the moment.

Here's the link:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=io&ACTIVES=10-IO-03A.PHET,10-WPAC-94W.INVEST&SIZE=Thumb&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2010&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2010/io032010.10060218.gif&CURRENT=20100602.1602.f18.x.color37.03APHET.120kts-933mb-185N-596E.87pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=io032010.10060218.gif&ATCF_NAME=io032010&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2010&MO=JUN&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2010&YR=10&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=03A.PHET&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc10/IO/03A.PHET/tc_ssmis/37v&PROD=37v&SUB_PROD=2degreeticks&TYPE=tc_ssmis

[ozonepete]

I wouldn't say the eyewall is open. Just not as intense to the NE

the EWRC looks to be nearly complete. The IR is starting to improve once again. This may have weakened as much as it is going to in the short term.

Does not look like any dry air has entrained

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... TYPE=amsre

TPW values are unusually high for a TC

Agreed. These SSTs can support its intensity for quite a while longer as long as the dry air doesn't come in. It all hinges on where it goes from here. When do you anticipate the recurve?

[Derek Ortt]

latest TMI shows an intense eyewall nearly surrounding the entire eye

I would not count on any further weakening before landfall

[Derek Ortt]

SSM/I rain rate from just 75 minutes ago

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E=tc_ssmis

the symmetry is fine with this, though we may need to watch the outer band to the south and east.

It looks like the first EWRC is complete,,, the question is, will it start another one

[ozonepete]

Still, CIMSS keeps dropping the Dvorak numbers and has weakening flag on. Here's the link (photobucket still dead):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/adt/odt03A.html

[ozonepete]

Can't post anymore - have to hit the hay. But I'm not convinced this will stay on the JTWC track. I still think a recurve will come sooner than that. At best this will get quite close to the coast but before landfall will turn northeast and parallel the coast just offshore. The high coming in behind the exiting trough that slowed it down will probably keep it offshore.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

Latest

(Edited) Looks like it has slowed even more and moved more northward. I'm now doubtful of landfall on Oman. But it has actually gotten more symmetry.

The one thing I would say: if it's really starting to recurve, it could easily intensify again for a while due to less land interaction, less dry air entrainment and really high SSTs. After all of the speculation, this may well be a big problem for Pakistan and/or northeast India after all.

[shah8]

Dr Ortt, when JTWC issued that forcast of doom track with cat5 and long trek into Oman interior, they did so by discounting the euro track and bending more to gfs/nogaps far west track, which I thought was very curious. The current track seems to be what the euro was saying all along. Why did JTWC bend the track so far west and have the storm go north for so long in that particular forcast?

Different question, was the relative surprise further west route into Oman a result of rapid strenghthening which helps build subtropical ridge or just that the trough wasn't as deep/south as needed?

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not a Dr. No need to call me Dr. Ortt

JT likely followed the trend with the western group being more accurate at the time

tricky to say if this will make landfall. May just brush the coast like Emily did to HAT in 1993

[shah8]

Well, it does seem to be growing stronger at this point. Will definitly check back in a couple of hours (We don't use ac here in the ATL and it's horrifically humid so very late bedtimes).

A brush might not be that bad for Oman, but I'm not sure the recurve will be strong enough to avoid a bad time of it in Pakistan if Oman doesn't take the brunt.

[omani1]

Hi
Please I want to coordinates of the storm is now?

[vjyanand]

I would like this storm to dissipitate or weaken as soon as possible. Its ruining south west monsoon's progress. The sooner it crosses the oman coast and weakens it is better for SW Monsoon. The temperature in bangalore and chennai have shot up in the last two days. The normal date for the SW Monsoon to set in coastal karnataka is 5 june. I fear we are going to miss that date.

[salmon123]

seems to me it starts re-curving
and path gonna change once again...

[vjyanand]

Yes the system seems to be re curving. The tail was ending up near gujarat yesterday pointing east. Now the tail is pointing southward.

[vjyanand]

The Meteorological department says Cyclone Phet has developed into a severe storm and has changed its course yet again from the shores of Oman back to Gujarat, India. 'Phet', moving at a great speed across the Arabian sea, is now likely to make landfall in the Kutch region in the next 24 hours.

The storm is now almost certain to hit land between Pakistan and Kutch, and regions from Kakhau to Kori creek have come under a cloud. The cyclone will be accompanied by surface wind speeds upto 200 kmph, potentially causing immense damage.

The twists and turns of Phet have kept the weather department on its toes. To begin with the cyclone was supposed to hit the coast of Gujarat first, but on Wednesday night appeared to change its course moving towards the coast of the Gulf Arab state of Oman - even as it gathered power and speed.

Now it seems the storm has re-curved and is set to indeed hit the coast Gujarat.

A high alert has been sounded across all ports in Gujarat and fishermen and saltpan workers have been recalled.

So far over 8,000 people have been evacuated from the state's coastal areas. According to reports, at least 6 people have died due to severe storms in Gujarat in the recent past.

THE REPORT IS FROM TIMES OF INDIA: 1 HOUR BACK

[Crostorm]