#244 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 08, 2010 6:20 pm
WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 28.7N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.7N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 38.6N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 125.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081742Z AMSRE 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED LOW
LEVEL BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND
CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30
TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. A 081225Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND 20 TO
30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. NEAR TAU 72
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTH
KOREA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 96 TS
DIANMU IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING FASTER TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z,
091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN
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