ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

Wow, this system sure shows how quickly the weathervane of opinions can change in a day. I am with others on this that it will at least be raising eyes in the GOM. I think the high in TX is being given too much credit at this point for this storm. Seems to be retrograding and degrading both according to models and satellite presentation.

That is my concern as the high is expected to move further W iirc. That would tend to open up a weakness/avenue for what might develop to take a more NW or N course. IF that happens(way to early to come to any concrete conclusions)we could actually use the rain, but certainly don't want any major storms. Of course it also has to develop into a TC first.

[HURAKAN]

The MLC is looking more and more impressive

[thetruesms]

An interesting image

The NDVI image on the bottom is actually not meant for weather surveillance, but to look at land cover - primarily vegetative density. That 92L is returning anything is more of a coincidence than anything else. Either that, or a bunch of plants sprung up underneath the system on top of the water really quickly

[HURAKAN]

An interesting image

The NDVI image on the bottom is actually not meant for weather surveillance, but to look at land cover - primarily vegetative density. That 92L is returning anything is more of a coincidence than anything else. Either that, or a bunch of plants sprung up underneath the system on top of the water really quickly

lol ... thanks for the information ... but I liked the shape in the image

[wxman57]

Here are the charts I mentioned. 500mb (18,000ft) plotted for Fri, Sat and Sun. ECMWF in yellow, GFS in purple/pink. Note the eastward movement of the high in both models as a deep trof approaches from the west. This should prevent any movement northward by the disturbance.

[HURAKAN]

La Ceiba, Honduras:

4 PM (20) Aug 06 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.88 (1011) S 7
3 PM (19) Aug 06 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.88 (1011) SSW 6 showers in the vicinity
2 PM (18) No Data
1 PM (17) Aug 06 87 (31) 75 (24) 29.91 (1012) N 7
Noon (16) Aug 06 87 (31) 73 (23) 29.91 (1012) N 7
11 AM (15) Aug 06 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.91 (1012) NW 5
10 AM (14) Aug 06 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.9 (1012) Calm
9 AM (13) Aug 06 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.89 (1012) Calm
8 AM (12) Aug 06 73 (23) 71 (22) 29.86 (1011) Calm
7 AM (11) Aug 06 73 (23) 71 (22) 29.89 (1012) Calm
6 AM (10) Aug 06 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.86 (1011) Calm
5 AM (9) No Data
4 AM (8) No Data
3 AM (7) Aug 06 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) Calm
2 AM (6) Aug 06 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1012) Calm
1 AM (5) Aug 06 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.88 (1011) Calm
Midnight (4) Aug 06 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.88 (1011) Calm
11 PM (3) Aug 05 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.87 (1011) Calm
10 PM (2) Aug 05 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.86 (1011) E 6
9 PM (1) Aug 05 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.9 (1012) NE 12
8 PM (0) Aug 05 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.82 (1009) NNE 13
7 PM (23) Aug 05 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.79 (1008) NE 13
6 PM (22) Aug 05 87 (31) 75 (24) 29.8 (1009) NNE 16

[lrak]

It looks like it's forward speed has slowed, if this thing slows way down what affect will the H pressure have later in the week?

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for correcting me WXman57. I do not like to put out false info. Brain cells aren't capturing info like they used to. That makes me feel much better about this system.

[wxman57]

It looks like it's forward speed has slowed, if this thing slows way down what affect will the H pressure have later in the week?

High pressure is forecast to build southward over the western Gulf by Tuesday as the system moves into southern Mexico. It won't be out there in the BoC past then.

[lrak]

Thanks Wxman57, the waves will be going off as I look out my office window. Since its summer the taxpayers get a bit of time after work to catch leftovers.

[HURAKAN]

The MLC or beginnings of a LLC, look more and more impressive by the minute

[Hurricane]

Wxman, this is getting it's act together, and I think this can form into Danielle or Earl before Tuesday (when the high moves in)

[chzzdekr81]

Can someone update the graphic to show 92L?

[HURAKAN]

WOW

[cycloneye]

Can someone update the graphic to show 92L?

The graphic is automated.There has to be a glitch on it, but hopefully all is fixed soon.

[hurricaneCW]

There's not enough time to organize. Also, the convection has weakened somewhat. At best a TD at this point

[chzzdekr81]

IMAGE

WOW

Wow is right..

[HURAKAN]

There's not enough time to organize. Also, the convection has weakened somewhat. At best a TD at this point

So, it's not going into Central America anymore? Keep downcasting everything.

[hurricaneCW]

There's not enough time to organize. Also, the convection has weakened somewhat. At best a TD at this point

So, it's not going into Central America anymore? Keep downcasting everything.

It's going to hit the Yucatan in a day or so.

[chzzdekr81]

There's not enough time to organize. Also, the convection has weakened somewhat. At best a TD at this point

You have to remember though, this could still form in the BoC if it can't get its act together. I actually think the convection has strengthened. JMO.