ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like the 12z GFS misses the trough this time..

It almost does but it too far north and easily sneaks in between the two ridges to the east and west. We'll have to see what future runs show as the recurve scenario is not 100% correct yet.

[cycloneye]

The latest. Continues to organize.

[Lowpressure]

Actually appears to be organizing a bit quicker than anticipated today. I am interested in the center apparently being initiated further south. As Cycloneye pointed out, banding starting to be evident.

[ROCK]

its getting there....maybe TD tomorrow or tonight...I suspect the NHC will wait and see if it pulses down overnight...

[Lowpressure]

its getting there....maybe TD tomorrow or tonight...I suspect the NHC will wait and see if it pulses down overnight...

Quick sat pass would help too.

[hurricaneCW]

Def a high risk today, it's really starting to get going with strong banding features developing and a tighter circulation.

[Macrocane]

its getting there....maybe TD tomorrow or tonight...I suspect the NHC will wait and see if it pulses down overnight...

Quick sat pass would help too.

Quikscat is dead But maybe an ASCAT pass is able to capture some circulation (if any).

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Danielle is definitely forming now at about 32.0 and 11.0. Not much doubt.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

Aye! That's exactly where I have it.

[Aric Dunn]

its getting there....maybe TD tomorrow or tonight...I suspect the NHC will wait and see if it pulses down overnight...

Quick sat pass would help too.

Quikscat is dead But maybe an ASCAT pass is able to capture some circulation (if any).

you mean this ASCAT ... lol from earlier this morning.. showing a decent pass with a decent circ ...

[Lowpressure]

Yeah, that one, and it looks considerable better now than in that pass.

[Sanibel]

I think ripe season conditions are forcing the issue. IMO there's a clear recurve synoptic set-up ahead.

[Aric Dunn]

what was the last best track position.. the ssd was 27.9 west which is much to far east.. its closer to 32w

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

95L will likely not begin to start moving with a more northerly component until it reaches 40˚W-45˚W. Why? Look at satellite loop of the North Atlantic (link below), note how the clouds around that area are moving westward indicative of a westerly steering flow. Now, look further west, see how the clouds begin moving with a more northerly component? Well, that's when it will begin to move WNW. Based on this, the northern Lesser Antilles still very much so have to watch 95L. They are by no means 'safe' from this. Although I do believe that 95L will recurve, it will likely not recurve as far east as the models depict, but instead further west as to put Bermuda in danger.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

nevermind found it.. 106N, 310W

thats better but I wonder what the models used for the initialization position. if they used the position that is 27w or 31 w big difference.

[Florida1118]

HIGH CHANCE: 60%
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

nevermind found it.. 106N, 310W

thats better but I wonder what the models used for the initialization position. if they used the position that is 27w or 31 w big difference.

12z tropical models iniciated at 10.6N-31.0W.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

nevermind found it.. 106N, 310W

thats better but I wonder what the models used for the initialization position. if they used the position that is 27w or 31 w big difference.

12z tropical models iniciated at 10.6N-31.0W.

K figured as much..

[Tropics Guy]

Wow, future Danielle starting to spin up nicely, could be a TD by tonight or tomorrow IMO...........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

TG

[Aric Dunn]

A floater would be nice from ssd..