ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[JtSmarts]

Latest JB Video:
http://www.accuweather.com/video/594956 ... nes%29.asp

[KWT]

I'm glad you can be so certain about a tropical cyclone 9 days out. Thankfully we have you.

I don't know, think I'm nailing Danielle's track at the moment from longer then 9 days out!

Seriously though as I said with Danielle, it is too early to know but in this case take a look at the upper level pattern and the fact that Danielle does go through and slow down whilst Earl races westwards. Its possible though Earl could miss the connection but I'm doubtful right now to be honest.

I did think at one point this one was a real threat but we will have to see how the upper level pattern evolves...

Lets just say I'm gaining a lot of confidence in the models this year, the resolution upgrades seem to be really helping them out with tropical cyclone forecasting.

WNW motion should carry on for the next few days though and then we will learn how the upper pattern responds in the meantime...though I'm not totally comfortable with this one missing the NE Caribbean just yet though the models are pretty keen.

[BigB0882]

Look how much further West Danielle is getting than predicted. It is silly to sit here and try to call Earl this far out. I hope it recurves but I'm not going to make such a bold predictions this early, not this season!

[HURAKAN]

Earl .. is that you?

[KWT]

I'd say yes Hurakan, that sure does look like a pretty quickly developing storm to me!

The key for the track will be how fast Danielle moves, if it races away then I suppose there is a chance it misses the connection, if Danielle takes its time like progged and Earl catches up, then this is a goner.

To be honest, I probably am still being too quick to judge the pattern, I'll give it another 24hrs and see how the pattern evolves on the models...

[JtSmarts]

Wow TD-7 is looking great right now, I definitely agree with whoever said he could strengthen faster than Danielle did.

[lester]

His name will soon be Earl..

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                2.1     2.2     3.4


very impressive raw

[HURAKAN]

loop

[Cryomaniac]

Looks very much like a fast developing system in that loop.

[HURAKAN]

catch the train!

[hurricaneCW]

Danielle looks rather sheared right now but this one is a developing beauty. Maybe we'll get the first major out of this one. As for as the track analysis, all that really has to happen is Danielle has to move away fast enough. Notice that the latest gfs brought future Earl further west because of the increased distance between him and Danielle. A little further distance and this one could miss the connection and head for the east coast. Even if it misses, Bermuda looks to be well in the path of this one.

[Vortex]

and fiona not far behind

[Cookiely]

I'm hoping my dream doesn't come true and Earl is a fish. In my dream last week it was an E storm off the coast raking Naples, St. Pete and Tampa in my dream.

[abajan]

Danielle looks rather sheared right now but this one is a developing beauty. Maybe we'll get the first major out of this one...

Make that the second major. Remember Alex?

[HURAKAN]

Danielle looks rather sheared right now but this one is a developing beauty. Maybe we'll get the first major out of this one...

Make that the second major. Remember Alex?

Alex had winds up to 105 mph. Major hurricane is 111 mph and above.

[Scorpion]

Definitely will be Earl at 5, probably 40 kt.

[blazess556]

Danielle looks rather sheared right now but this one is a developing beauty. Maybe we'll get the first major out of this one...

Make that the second major. Remember Alex?

alex wasn't a major

[blazess556]

Definitely will be Earl at 5, probably 40 kt.

totally agree. earl has a better chance at a major than danielle.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm hoping my dream doesn't come true and Earl is a fish. In my dream last week it was an E storm off the coast raking Naples, St. Pete and Tampa in my dream.

Good thing it's only a dream, but I for one would love a hurricane up here. That would be spectacular to witness and experience. I hope one impacts me once in my lifetime. Nothing too powerful, a Cat 1 would do.