ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[chrisjslucia]

Thanks Cane

[hurricaneCW]

So what is the track prognosis, is it more likely to head towards the CONUS or recurve.

[Evil Jeremy]

So what is the track prognosis, is it more likely to head towards the CONUS or recurve.

Way to far out to tell at the moment, but I think that this is the first legit threat to the SE CONUS this year. By the time this approaches the Caribbean, ridging should finally be building back in.

[x-y-no]

Ivan and Grenada in 2004 is a personal matter,so understand the concerns of "I" storms, but getting back to Gaston (to be) can anyone give me a heads up on the divergence of the models - BAMS is taking this directly through my front door and HWRF seems to be another southerly bet. I hate the model game this far out (not enough finger nails) but any explanation on the model variations would be a help.

The divergence of the BAM models is indicative of very different steering at the different levels, hence also of shear.

It seems unlikely that this will remain a shallow system all the way across the basin, but obviously it will be shallow in the short term. So I'd say the BAMM is the member of that group which deserves the most attention.

The globals really don't have a handle on it yet, so I'd wait for the next couple of runs before giving them too much weight.

[sfwx]

:uarrow:

But for every Ivan there is an Irene, which didn't do anything. Still however I storms are mostly scary.

Well, Irene put a huge tree down on my house and caused pretty bad flooding in our area. I wouldn't say they was "nothing!"

Eric

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow:

But for every Ivan there is an Irene, which didn't do anything. Still however I storms are mostly scary.

Well, Irene put a huge tree down on my house and caused pretty bad flooding in our area. I wouldn't say they was "nothing!"

Eric

I'm with you on that...Irene snuck up on us and wasn't no slouch...

SFT

[Scorpion]

Amazing how we can agonize over model runs while waiting a week for a TD to form, and then something like this pops up in about a day.

[Ivanhater]

Models missed this one. I wonder if the Globals had a hard time or the resolution to see all these systems come off Africa in a short period of time and this one slipped under?

[ROCK]

Models missed this one. I wonder if the Globals had a hard time or the resolution to see all these systems come off Africa in a short period of time and this one slipped under?

I can say one thing...so far Africa has been what 4 for 4....4 waves in succession have developed...thats pretty amazing if you ask me....

[Ivanhater]

Models missed this one. I wonder if the Globals had a hard time or the resolution to see all these systems come off Africa in a short period of time and this one slipped under?

I can say one thing...so far Africa has been what 4 for 4....4 waves in succession have developed...thats pretty amazing if you ask me....

Yep, and models are keen on developing another one behind TD9...that switch was flipped on big time..

[ROCK]

not sure I have ever seen that many come off and develop in a row like that....

He sure looks decent today. Stable environment might keep him down some but I dont suspect by much...

[hurricaneCW]

This is all happening in an unfavorable MJO for the area. It's supposed to become favorable towards the end of the first week of September. It just proves that the MJO state does not matter in a moderate La Nina.

[KWT]

Very interesting little system this one, despite what is actually a fairly stable set-up around it the circulation is strong enough to at the moment over-ride it.

I see no reason why a fair bit down the line this one can't become alot stronger...

The only other thing I will say is if the 00z ECM comes off there is little chance this one is a risk...but its way too far off and I suspect we could have another system that may threaten the E.coast down the line from this.

[Sanibel]

My total guess is this one recurves but the other active African waves in September would perhaps have the potential to experience a different steering regime and threaten the US.

[MGC]

I would guess the this one recurves also. The troughs have been fairly pronounced this year so lets hope this one is a fish....the northern Caribbean islands have seen enough damage from Earl......MGC

[hurricaneCW]

It's way too early to say recurve for this one. It could actually enter the Caribbean. Please don't think it's probably going to recurve based on the current gfs run. That run is nearly 10 days out and is very inaccurate past 5 days.

[blazess556]

It's way too early to say recurve for this one. It could actually enter the Caribbean. Please don't think it's probably going to recurve based on the current gfs run. That run is nearly 10 days out and is very inaccurate past 5 days.

thank you. someone here with some reason.

[KWT]

Not just the GFS to be fair but most models do show at least a fairly sharp upper trough digging down again between 192-240hrs...

However that being said this is far from a certain recurve and HWC is quite right, this one has a decent chance of getting into the Caribbean....and from that position its going to have to hit land somewhere even on a recurve pattern...

So this one will need VERY close attention.

[johngaltfla]

This storm hasn't even begun to intensify yet so calling for a recurve is way premature, IMHO. Give it 72 hours, see if the high pressure system rebuilds in behind the two storms near the U.S. then you may get a better picture. If this storm tracks south of the Puerto Rico, we are going to have a GOM player in all probability, but again, it is WAY too early to call.

[Blown Away]

IMO, by the time TD9 reaches the NE Caribbean area Earl/Fiona should be moving out of the picture and the persistent troughing/weakness they leave behind should be replaced by ridging and the models have been hinting there will be some decent ridging in the W Atlantic. The TD9 models are suggesting a system that will go more west and they have done a decent job predicting Danielle/Earl/Fiona's general track idea.