ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                2.5     2.6     3.5

Hermine's look is causing the raw to go haywire!!!

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 10, 2010090612, , BEST, 0, 226N, 954W, 45, 998, TS

45 knots

[lonelymike]

Are there any oil or gas rigs along Hermaine's path?

[Weatherfreak000]

It;s amazing to think last night some members were claiming this would fizzle out!

[jinftl]

Given that the forecast cone includes a small part of Texas that isn't even in a t.s. watch (let alone a t.s. warning), I would expect a pretty decent jump north at the 11am advisory for watches and warnings...at least to matagorda, maybe even freeport.

[KWT]

Raw numbers show exactly whats happening with this one, its rapidly strengthening IMO, classic La Nina type system...take a look at Lorenzo from 2007 for a good example...

No reason this can't reach 65-70kts before it comes inland.

[redfish1]

it should be moving NW at this point but it is still moving N what is going on?

[hurricaneCW]

Raw numbers show exactly whats happening with this one, its rapidly strengthening IMO, classic La Nina type system...take a look at Lorenzo from 2007 for a good example...

No reason this can't reach 65-70kts before it comes inland.

I agree. It's getting better and better with each frame, very strong and very cold cloud tops around the center. I'll say minimal cane at landfall.

[jinftl]

There was a swing in heading of 20 deg over the last 6 hours....from just east of due north at 1am to just west of due north at 7am....if that trend continues it will possibly be labeled as heading nnw at 10am cdt.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR



SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR

it should be moving NW at this point but it is still moving N what is going on?

[Migle]

it should be moving NW at this point but it is still moving N what is going on?

It is moving NW right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Put the Tropical Forecast Points on and you can see it going on the NHC track.

[srainhoutx]

RECON will likely find a very impressive system when they arrive...

[TexasF6]

WOBBLE WATCH THE HERMINE EDITION BEGINS!!!!!!!!!!

[KWT]

Probably not going to have a huge amount of time over water but La Nina systems in the BoC have a habit of undergoing RI in the SW.BoC, I can think of at least 4-5 decent hurricanes developing in this region from La Ninas.

Probably 50-55kts already...

[lonelymike]

Are there any oil or gas rigs along Hermaine's path?

[Migle]

WOBBLE WATCH THE HERMINE EDITION BEGINS!!!!!!!!!!

It's not wobbling. There's nothing to watch as it is going right on the NHC track.

It looks real good with some cold cloud tops and deep convection. Even if this does make "landfall" 30 miles south of Brownsville, they are still going to get a lot from this.

[jinftl]

A few....but hermine should steer clear of the main oil rig areas

Are there any oil or gas rigs along Hermaine's path?

[HURAKAN]

RECON on its way

[Portastorm]

I'll state the obvious -- wow, that is A LOT of moisture headed our way!

[Starburst]

Slightly irrelevant, but how do you pronounce Hermine? Like Hermione without the 'o' or as "her-mean"?

It's pronounced her-MEEN, as per NHC name pronunciation guide at nhc.noaa.gov.

Thanks.

NHC Page I was looking at has it pronounced tropical storm Hermine (pronounced Er-meen-e)

[jinftl]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

....FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DEWITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND
WILSON.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* EXPECT NUMEROUS BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

* THE CUMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES IN AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
RIVER RISES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

I'll state the obvious -- wow, that is A LOT of moisture headed our way!