ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

pretty strong outlook in my opinion. i am more concerned with whats occuring than models which will surely change again.

[FogbowBlue]

Do y'all think this will be another Tx/Mx hit? We sure are getting weary....

Too early to tell. With the ridging we have had across the South lately I wouldn't be surprised if it stays in the Carribean and or BOC IF it develops into anything. I hope it doesn't develop. My daughter and her husband are cruising to Cozumel starting Monday.

Thanks for the response - hope your daughter/husband will be okay - that may be one bumpy sail.....I'm ready to be done with this crazy cane season.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty clear where the center of the broad center is with the surface observations and satellite.. the Invest location actually about (for once) lol...

[Aric Dunn]

or this view...

[HURAKAN]

72 hours

[Red Seal]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THIS
AREA...AND DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE CIRCULATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Yeah Aric thats quite obvious where it is right now but like Gaston its going to need to improve on its convection if its going to get much stronger then it is right now...still this one has alot of time yet to do the job and I suspect it will do the job in the end...

ps, interesting Hurakan, whilst I think its a little quick on the motion, thats the sort of forecast I'd make as well and go along with the ECM.

[jlauderdal]

My prediction for the next 48 hr's......0 percent chance of patience.

and at least 200 posts of conflicting ideas about the system

[jlauderdal]

50%, interesting. Stewart

Here's what I see.



I don't think the system is more north, but pretty much where it was yesterday. The bands are starting to form below my center estimate, but outflow noted by the red curve is going to hit this area edit: around 10pm ... if I judge the timing right. I think we'll see convection wiped away this evening and have it pick back up again tomorrow morning. This is the graveyard, and the disturbance is still close to SA, so I really don't see this developing very rapidly.

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no worries, avila is lurking and ready to give it a haircut to 40%

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on what I'm seeing I'm going to go with a TD by Sunday at 11:00PM

[KWT]

It does sort of look like the first phases of a developing WPAC system right now with the circulation a little vois of meaningful convection, but another big blowup overnight will only help to aid the circulation.

[Vortex]

Nice banding developing on the south side of the circulation. Barbados is getting gusty out of the south...Should help the thermodynamics and convection is likely to blossom tonight..

[Riptide]

Not to be a Debbie-downer but the probability of 92L dissipating is greater than the probability of 92L forming a low-level circulation. I don't think this is the threat the Gulf Coast or Caribbean has been waiting for.(Sorry if this is offensive, speaking from a personal perspective)

[SouthFLTropics]

Not to be a Debbie-downer but the probability of 92L dissipating is greater than the probability of 92L forming a low-level circulation. I don't think this is the threat the gulf coast or Caribbean has been waiting for.

Ah, a Hurricane Debby reference...The Miami storm that never was...

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091018, , BEST, 0, 132N, 604W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Vortex]

The vis implies a slow NW movement...Winds should shift to the SW very soon over barbados.

[Aric Dunn]

radar.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?88

[Red Seal]

Based on what I'm seeing I'm going to go with a TD by Sunday at 11:00PM

Sounds like a winner to me

[cycloneye]

radar.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?88

Do you see it at the best track position 13.2N-60.4W?

[cycloneye]

Moving WNW at 300 degrees.

LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 60.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 5KT