ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Needs to move away from SA

[Vortmax1]

Most likely those 20-25 knot trades are disruptive to any development in the current location. It looks like the shear is increasing a bit also.
Better chances for development will obviously be further West later tomorrow or Friday.

[ColinDelia]

I would point out that only a short while ago Karl became a tropical storm in the Caribbean.

What I meant is that Karl recently formed in the Caribbean despite the below seasonal value for "vertical instability" given in the plot
we are discussing. Are the values in that plot averaged over the entire Caribbean? It's not clear to me what the plot represents as far as WHERE in the Caribbean or if it is averaged over a few points or a gridded satellite average.

The most recent value given in the Caribbean plot looks to be about 5C whereas the number in the Tropical Atlantic, which has been a true breeding ground recently was between 3 and 4C.

Caribbean


Tropical Atlantic (Note the vertical instability in this plot was less than the climatological normal during the recent period which was chalk full of Hurricanes)


I don't know much about this. Just throwing it out there.

[CourierPR]

Most likely those 20-25 knot trades are disruptive to any development in the current location. It looks like the shear is increasing a bit also.
Better chances for development will obviously be further West later tomorrow or Friday.

The comments in the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert posted earlier seem to indicate an increasingly favorable environment for this developing system.

[jlauderdal]

As this day progresses Invest 95L is looking less organized with each new frame.
I take back what I said earlier about this being a developing system.
To be truly honest...this just looks like a Tropical Wave passing through the Caribbean right now.
Any development will not be happening in this current location.

it was never forecast to develop in this area, its doing what was expected which is moving away from a an unfavorable area to a more favorable area and as a result you should start to see the percentage by NHC go up, its on track and on schedule

[btangy]

Hot of the press... we just had a dropsonde from the PREDICT-GV flight with southwesterly winds at 5-10 knots at 850 mb near Aruba, so it appears that there is a weak circulation forming N of the Gulf of Venezuela. We lost the drop data below that level, but the SW winds appear to extend through low-levels.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Tropical Atlantic (Note the vertical instability in this plot was less than the climatological normal during the recent period which was chalk full of Hurricanes)

Very true, but could we surmise that the ramp up in activity coincided with the significantly improving instability, even though it only seemed to achieve seasonal norm?

One other thing, is it not odd that various model outputs have 95L at times stationary over extremely high TCHPs and yet the output doesn't come close to suggesting an extremely powerful system as a result? Seems odd to me, but I am just an amateur seeking an education.

[Vortmax1]

it was never forecast to develop in this area, its doing what was expected which is moving away from a an unfavorable area to a more favorable area

Absolutely. That's what I said here.....Most likely those 20-25 knot trades are disruptive to any development in the current location. It looks like the shear is increasing a bit also.
Better chances for development will obviously be further West later tomorrow or Friday.

As of this moment it does not "look" like a developing system.
That is all.....

[btangy]

Looks like there's a nice curved band forming NW of Curacao. Although the convection isn't as prevalent as it was yesterday at this time, the structure is gradually improving.

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappicolor.html

[artist]

Hot of the press... we just had a dropsonde from the PREDICT-GV flight with southwesterly winds at 5-10 knots at 850 mb near Aruba, so it appears that there is a weak circulation forming N of the Gulf of Venezuela. We lost the drop data below that level, but the SW winds appear to extend through low-levels.

so it seems it is beginning to try to come together? Thanks for the info.

[artist]

btangy- is there anywhere we can access that data as it comes in?

[jlauderdal]

it was never forecast to develop in this area, its doing what was expected which is moving away from a an unfavorable area to a more favorable area

Absolutely. That's what I said here.....Most likely those 20-25 knot trades are disruptive to any development in the current location. It looks like the shear is increasing a bit also.
Better chances for development will obviously be further West later tomorrow or Friday.

As of this moment it does not "look" like a developing system.
That is all.....

well it appears structure is better just not much convection, all in all it is slowly developing as we both thought it would for the same reason

[MGC]

Looks like that ULL over PR moving westward might be a big fly in the ointment to 95L......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Convergence has increased a lot

[CourierPR]

Looks like that ULL over PR moving westward might be a big fly in the ointment to 95L......MGC

If it were then I don't think the NHC would be assigning such a high probability for development.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it will take another 36 hours before any development.

[KWT]

Yeah its still a little too far east to really make the most of it but the conditions are getting there...

For those who argue it should be dropped even below 30%...look at how terrible Karl looked even 24-36hrs before it got upgraded...

[KWT]

Looks like it will take another 36 hours before any development.

24-36hrs seems reasonable, I expect 77-80W is the zone to watch for development, reminds me alot of Alex in that respect and developmental region maybe close to Alex as well...

[HurricaneBelle]

Tampa Bay NWS acknowledges 95L's potential in their latest AFD:

CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF AND
GFS WANT TO PUSH A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD FROM THE CARRIBEAN
HELPING TO KEEP THE EFFECTS OF THE OF THE MID LATITUDE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT CONCERN IS THE FORMATION OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE STATE. ECMWF IS
MUCH QUICKER THAN GFS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PUSHING EXCESS
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUES. REGARDLESS...SINCE THESE
FEATURES AND THEIR IMPACTS ARE IN THE TAIL-END OF THE MODEL
PACKAGES AND THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL NOT BITE ON THE
SOLUTIONS UNTIL THE SYSTEMS ACTUALLY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AND MODELS
BECOME MUCH MORE CONSISTENT.

[cwachal]

if it is going to develop in the same location as Alex... what makes you think that it will be stronger then Alex was at landfall in Mexico (1st landfall)?