WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[supercane]

18Z Dvorak updates below, but to summarize, RJTD (JMA) still at T3.0, PGTW (JTWC) up to T5.0. Given KNES' T4.0 earlier, JTWC likely to upgrade to typhoon with 21Z advisory. Still awaiting JMA's 18Z advisory.

333
TCNA21 RJTD 141800
CCAA 14180 47644 MEGI(1013) 17135 11378 13334 230// 93111=

TPPN11 PGTW 141827
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI)
B. 14/1730Z
C. 13.5N
D. 137.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 30A/PBO CDO/ANMTN. EMBD CENTER TO CMG SURROUNDING
CNVCTN YIELDS 5.0 DT. MET YIELDS 4.5 PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/1541Z 13.0N 138.3E TRMM
ROSS

[GCANE]

TUTT directly to the east at 10N 159W is building nicely and as a result is improving the poleward outflow channel.

Equatorward channel is looking better as well.

Symmetry seems to be improving.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1013 MEGI (1013) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 13.5N 137.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 15.6N 134.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 161800UTC 17.3N 130.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 171800UTC 17.5N 125.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF shows landfall at 96 hours in Luzon.



Typhoon Hunter,12z ECMWF has second landfall of Megi near Hong Kong.

[P.K.]

KMA and CMA 18Z advisories.

WTKO20 RKSL 141800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME STS 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141800UTC 13.5N 137.8E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 151800UTC 15.4N 134.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 66KT
48HR
POSITION 161800UTC 17.0N 130.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 171800UTC 17.4N 125.4E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


WTPQ20 BABJ 141800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC
00HR 13.5N 137.7E 980HPA 30M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 18KM/H
P+24HR 15.5N 134.3E 965HPA 38M/S
P+48HR 17.4N 129.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+72HR 17.6N 125.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 17.6N 121.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.3N 117.9E 950HPA 45M/S=

[supercane]

JMA 5-day out, largely unchanged:
WTPQ50 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1013 MEGI (1013) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 13.5N 137.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 15.6N 134.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 161800UTC 17.3N 130.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 171800UTC 17.5N 125.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 181800UTC 17.5N 121.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
120HF 191800UTC 17.4N 118.9E 260NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT =



Earlier ASCAT:


Eye starting to show up on microwave:

[somethingfunny]

This is a serious cyclone. Prayers for everyone in its path.

[supercane]

VDM out, peak SFMR winds 82kt, MSLP 980 mb (extrap), peak flight-level winds 79kt, circular 12-nmi eye open to SE, storm gaining latitude:
630

URPA12 PGUA 141951

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/19:37:20Z
B. 13 deg 44 min N
137 deg 54 min E
C. NA
D. 82 kt
E. 001 deg 7 nm
F. 108 deg 79 kt
G. 011 deg 12 nm
H. EXTRAP 980 mb
I. 5 C / 3656 m
J. 13 C / 3632 m
K. 4 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0430W MEGI OB 03
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 19:33:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM NONSTANDARD LEVEL
SFC CNTR 290 / 4 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[GCANE]

Typhoon Dot

Birth
Oct. 13, 1985

Death
Oct. 22, 1985

Minimum Pressure
895 (hPa)

Maximum Wind
120 (knots)

Largest Radius of Storm Wind
180 (nm) / 330 (km)

Largest Diameter of Storm Wind
270 (nm) / 500 (km)

Largest Radius of Gale Wind
300 (nm) / 560 (km)

Largest Diameter of Gale Wind
500 (nm) / 930 (km)

Length of Movement
4490 (km)

Average Speed
22.7 (km/h) | 544 (km/d)

Range of Movement
Latitude 7.3 : Longitude 38.5

Wind Flux
2.5900E+03

Accumulated Cyclone Energy
2.2425E+05

Power Dissipation Index
2.0954E+07

Maximum Pressure Drop
-20 hPa / 06 hours
-35 hPa / 12 hours
-65 hPa / 24 hours
-90 hPa / 48 hours

Data Start
1985-10-11 12:00:00 UTC

Data End
1985-10-22 12:00:00 UTC

Data Duration
264 (hours) / 11.000 (days)

[StormingB81]

WOW..This am NOGAPS has it coming right next to Okinawa instead of PI....but it seems no gaps goes back and forth...

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to typhoon

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, AIRCRAFT AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.4N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.7N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.6N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 137.2E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS
TRACKED WEST NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM HAS CEASED AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS
WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS ON ALL SIDES. BOUNDARY LAYER
PROCESSES HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE VIGOROUS AND ORGANIZED, AND THE
SYSTEM IS NOW SPORTING A MICROWAVE EYE. CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING
AROUND THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING IS NOW PRESENT ON ALL SIDES
OF THE STORM. ALONG-TRACK CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE
FROM CONSENSUS AND STEER THE STORM ON A POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72,
HOWEVER THIS IS A VERY RECENT DEVELOPMENT AND THROUGH TAU 72, THERE
EXISTS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK AND GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
NNNN

[supercane]

Latest vortex message shows MSLP up to 983 mb, SFMR winds peak at 52kt. Strange.
903

URPA12 PGUA 142116

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/21:13:40Z
B. 13 deg 50 min N
137 deg 40 min E
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 160 deg 10 nm
F. 251 deg 58 kt
G. 160 deg 11 nm
H. EXTRAP 983 mb
I. 10 C / 3652 m
J. 17 C / 3658 m
K. 3 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF304 0430W MEGI OB 15
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 19:33:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM NONSTANDARD LEVEL

KNES Dvorak still at T4.0:

TXPN23 KNES 142122
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 14/2030Z
C. 13.7N
D. 138.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...8/10 WHITE BANDING GIVES A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
14/1541Z 13.2N 138.3E TMI
14/1709Z 13.5N 138.4E AMSU
...NEWHARD
=

[supercane]

JMA 21Z advisory:

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 14.0N 137.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 16.0N 133.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 161800UTC 17.3N 130.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 171800UTC 17.5N 125.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[supercane]

Updated VDM:

517
URPA12 PGUA 142126

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/21:13:40Z
B. 13 deg 50 min N
137 deg 40 min E
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 160 deg 10 nm
F. 251 deg 58 kt
G. 160 deg 11 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 10 C / 3652 m
J. 17 C / 3658 m
K. 3 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E36/20/16
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0430W MEGI OB 15
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 19:33:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68 KT N QUAD 21:17:30Z
OUTBOUND SFC WINDS 83 KTS
;

[P.K.]

CMA also upgrades to a TY with a forecast peak of 60m/s but this is still a STS per the RSMC.

WTPQ20 BABJ 142100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 142100 UTC
00HR 13.9N 137.5E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 18KM/H
P+24HR 16.0N 134.0E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 17.5N 129.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 18.0N 124.9E 920HPA 60M/S
P+96HR 18.1N 121.4E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.9N 117.9E 945HPA 48M/S=

[phwxenthusiast]

WOW..This am NOGAPS has it coming right next to Okinawa instead of PI....but it seems no gaps goes back and forth...

it's called LOLgaps for a reason...

[supercane]

Forecast from ITOP's latest discussion:

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID:    Name: Tropical Low
Issued at: 2206 UTC 14/10/2010
Data at: 1200 UTC 14 October 2010

TECHNICAL REMARKS
 

Latitude: 12.9N
Longitude: 138.7E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (292 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)

Bearing 1: From Guam
   At  +0: 360 nm (670 km) west
   At +12: 440 nm (820 km) west
   At +24: 550 nm (1030 km) west
   At +36: 690 nm (1280 km) west northwest
   At +48: 840 nm (1560 km) west northwest
   At +60: 1000 nm (1850 km) west northwest
   At +72: 1130 nm (2090 km) west northwest



Maximum 10 Minute Mean Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Central Pressure: 975 hPa



FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
 Date/Time     : Location     : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
 (UTC)         : degrees      : nm  : kts : kts : hPa  : 3
  +0 : 14/1200 : 12.9N 138.7E : 040 : 055 : 080 :  975 :
  +6 : 14/1800 : 13.5N 138.0E : 045 : 060 : 085 :  975 :
 +12 : 15/0000 : 14.0N 137.3E : 050 : 065 : 090 :  970 :
 +18 : 15/0600 : 14.6N 136.4E : 055 : 070 : 100 :  970 :
 +24 : 15/1200 : 15.2N 135.5E : 060 : 080 : 115 :  965 :
 +36 : 16/0000 : 16.5N 133.3E : 070 : 090 : 125 :  960 :
 +48 : 16/1200 : 17.4N 130.8E : 085 : 100 : 140 :  945 :
 +60 : 17/0000 : 18.0N 128.2E : 110 : 100 : 140 :  940 :
 +72 : 17/1200 : 17.8N 125.9E : 120 : 100 : 140 :  940 :
 +84 : 18/0000 : 17.4N 123.5E : 130 : 100 : 140 :  940 :
 +96 : 18/1200 : 16.9N 121.0E : 140 : 070 : 100 :  965 :
+108 : 19/0000 : 16.1N 118.8E : 150 : 070 : 100 :  960 :
+120 : 19/1200 : 16.4N 117.4E : 160 : 080 : 115 :  950 :

*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1 minute mean wind***

[Chacor]

And Luis, AGAIN I remind you, and everyone else, as I seem to have to with every storm.
JTWC is not the official warning centre. The topic title should /not!/ call this a typhoon until the JMA upgrades.

[supercane]

ITOP producing cool wind profiles from recon flight.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good morning all, figured this would go up to typhoon at 00Z. I'm sure JMA will right right on JTWC's heals, they usually are but the seem to be under forecasting this one.