ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Can anyone tell if they renumbered it? I dont know where that is when they do it

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we will have Tomas soon. Maybe we can go Greek again?

[HURAKAN]

Can anyone tell if they renumbered it? I dont know where that is when they do it

no

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Florida1118]

Can anyone tell if they renumbered it? I dont know where that is when they do it

no

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Well 2 or 5 it is then.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like we will have Tomas soon. Maybe we can go Greek again?

I think it's possible. When Tomás forms, then we would need 2 more to finish the list and then onto the Greek list. 3 storms between November and December doesn't sound out of the realm of possibilities this season.

[HURAKAN]

Can anyone tell if they renumbered it? I dont know where that is when they do it

no

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Well 2 or 5 it is then.

RECON arrives at 2 pm (18z). If they find what we expect, either at 2 pm or an special advisory after but before 5.

[srainhoutx]

[Sanibel]

Nice cool air from cold front over us. Broke the near-record heat. Should affect track and intensity.

[bvigal]

We will see if they upgrade it at 11. If not, then they must have some sort of reason for not upgrading.

waiting for RECON

So they can't upgrade without recon now? What about Shary? Or Lisa? Or many of the other storms this year that formed east of the Caribbean. This one will be hitting the eastern Caribbean in less than 12 hours. I'm baffled.

I'm feeling the same way, wxman57, simply baffled! No recon on Shary, much smaller, less impressive, and certainly no greater threat to Bermuda than 91L is to EC islands. I have seen dozens of storms that looked this good on satellite, models, environment, with little other data, which were classified, some way out east in the Atlantic. This year, there seems to be some different analysis/procedure for the Eastern Caribbean, in particular, as this conversation feels like deja vu.

[cycloneye]

Once I get my internal NOAA e-mail, I will know more about what they're thinking! lol

Nothing yet?

[HurricaneBelle]

This reminds me of the Gustav situation when it had to develop an eye before they classified it as a TD (remember this language: INTERESTINGLY HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE), and three hours later it was whoops, recon found a 60MPH TS.

They've been lowballing this system all along, so they're not going to make their initial forecasts look bad until they absolutely have to.

[srainhoutx]

Imagery does seem to suggest a center near 10.4N/56.4W. We will see.

[Tropicswatcher]

It seems like is moving more to the right in last frames
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=vis

[HURAKAN]

Once I get my internal NOAA e-mail, I will know more about what they're thinking! lol

Nothing yet?

They haven't set up my account yet! Likely next week

[CourierPR]

[quote="Tropicswatcher"]It seems like is moving more to the right in last frames
Yes, and I think the system will steer clear of SA so strengthening won't be inhibited by land interaction.

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[somethingfunny]

This is a very scary situation.

[Florida1118]

From Jeff Masters:
"91L will continue moving west-northwest at a decreasing forward speed through Monday, bringing very heavy rain tonight and Saturday to the northern coast of South America and most of the Lesser Antilles. The center of the storm will track very close the coast of South America this weekend, and it is likely that this will slow or halt development over the weekend. By Monday, the center of 91L may pull far enough away from South America that more substantial development can occur. However, steering currents are expected to substantially weaken in the eastern Caribbean beginning on Monday, as a strong trough of low pressure develops over the Eastern U.S., weakening the ridge of high pressure steering 91L. The trough may be strong enough to pull 91L to the north, resulting in a potential threat to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday of next week. We do have several models--the HWRF and GFS--that develop 91L into a hurricane by Wednesday. Shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for most of the next five days, and water temperatures are at near record highs, 29 - 29.5°C. There is the potential for 91L to reach hurricane status if passage over South America this weekend does not disrupt the storm sufficiently. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L at 2pm this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed."

[cycloneye]

I dont know if this is an indication of a future direction that this may take,but today,the winds here in Puerto Rico are from the SSE.

[cycloneye]

So far the plane is not in the air as it was supposed by 11:30 AM EDT. Unless they depart from a closer area to the system such as Barbados or French Guinea.

Note=Plane is flying towards 91L.They departed from ST Croix.

[Evil Jeremy]

So far the plane is not in the air as it was supposed by 11:30 AM EDT. Unless they depart from a closer area to the system such as Barbados or French Guinea.

Note=Plane is flying towards 91L.They departed from ST Croix.

Where they were initially supposed to depart from St Croix?