ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[ozonepete]

E34/20/15

3 eyewalls?

Elliptical with sections of 15 to 34 nautical miles across. Sign of perhaps slight weakening.

No. Sign of ERC. Sorry, I wrote too fast. Just thinking that eye could be contracting now given that info, so COULD be a sign of ERC.

[Tstormwatcher]

Long time lurker, used to post alot here but anyway, I live on the southeast coast of NC so this one has me a bit nervous right now. Hopefully it does curve away but guess will have to wait and see. Thanks to those who keep posting the model updates and other reverant info.

Howdy neighbor. Looking like a high water event for us, in my opinion. If it tracks further west of the NHC track....well, then it'll be a major event for us. I am hoping for the former!

Howdy, so am I. Although I would like to get a 4 day weekend, don't want it that bad.

[UpTheCreek]

Been on the OBX for 36 years, evac once. Cat 4 strike would flatten us. 90% of houses her stick built (including mine).

Just about every year this time of year I think of the three pigs.

Keep that sense of humor! Your JB comments were killin' me, by the way!

[TheBurn]

[UpTheCreek]

Although I would like to get a 4 day weekend, don't want it that bad.

Me either, means the kids are outta school!

[breaking wind]

Just because Earl is trending left doesnt mean it will continue and even now IF Earl goes down the center of the cone, their should only be tropical storm force winds near the outer banks of NC. I"m really pulling for this trough to make it presence known and kick this bad boy out to sea. That being said, I was in Jeanne and Charlie when they were tropical storms in central fl and I gotta tell ya 50mph sustained winds with gusts to 60 for a half hour was enough to scare the crap out of me.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that I'm looking at the models, I myself am starting to wonder more if this has the potential of a direct hit on the USA. You see the turn to the right just as it approaches the US Coast. Can you imagine how crazy this board is going to be the day before, wondering, "Is it going to turn"?

[Florida1118]

What's up with Comcast.net? Here's a copy and pasted headline about the hurricane Earl:

"Hurricane Earl has rapidly intensified into a major Category 4 storm on a path projected to strike the eastern U.S." ???

Way to go Comcast to panic everyone!!!!...Now I just got home from work, and I haven't looked at Earl for about 3 hours, so I'm assuming the path hasn't changed and it's still projected to be off the eastern coast , but the above headline is NOT an error, it's from the news headlines at comcast.net..

Way to go comcast. Just got to love the media.

Okay, once I saw the headline, I clicked on it, and then the news article down plays it, it says
"Already dangerous with sustained winds of 135 mph (215 kph), Earl is expected to gain more strength before POTENTIALLY brushing the U.S. East Coast this week and bringing deadly rip currents"
So I guess the headline was just being dramatic to get people to click on the story....

Thats pretty lame of them. If they put "Our President has been shot!" and then say when you read the story it was with a water gun on his vacation, I would be pretty ticked like I am now. Psh. Media.

[bzukajo]

I am here in Cape Cod Massachusetts. Been lurking and watching you guys and your observations all day. Your posts are very much appreciated. Should we be getting nervous up here? What are your thoughts on a direct hit for Cape Cod?

What part of the Cape? I grew up on Lower County Rd.

I would say yes at this point. I think these latest runs call for us in southern NE to prepare. Four days out from Ike we stocked up on water and non perishables. Back then it was a "chance" landfall near Houston. Many thought it would be Luisiana at that time. We were lucky we did. Not so much for us, but we had many many friends who needed what we had stockpiled. For them it was either walking to Reliant or Rice Stadium for emergency food supplies, or come to our place for food, shower, and unfiltered sake . The later was far better. Either way your covered if you prepare now. You will also avoid the panic shopping. In Houston, I could not find one bag of chips ANYWHERE the day before Ike arrived.

Please stay safe. If this thing tags Cape Hatteras, I think the Cape, RI, Central MA and eastern CT will all be panic shopping.

[Stephanie]

146kts around 925mb.


Please secure all perimeters and get out.

What would be a corresponding windspeed at the surface>?

Per above 109 kts at the surface or 125 mph.

[Windtalker1]

Wobble Watching continues.....a little more west last few frames.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[Canelaw99]

Obviously, I have to believe the NHC and their forecasting skills, as they are 1000 times better than mine, but boy...sitting here in S FL, I can't help but look at that image and think 'what if?'. So many storms sitting in that position make a beeline this way....will breathe a sigh of relief once it turns, that's for sure....

[Weather Watcher]

Just because Earl is trending left doesnt mean it will continue and even now IF Earl goes down the center of the cone, their should only be tropical storm force winds near the outer banks of NC. I"m really pulling for this trough to make it presence known and kick this bad boy out to sea. That being said, I was in Jeanne and Charlie when they were tropical storms in central fl and I gotta tell ya 50mph sustained winds with gusts to 60 for a half hour was enough to scare the crap out of me.

We have to pray that the trough does what you say. Remember Jesus calmed the sea for His disciples. He can do it again!

[Evil Jeremy]

Anyone thinking that TS warnings might be possible for the DR later tonight?

[Julanne]

I am here in Cape Cod Massachusetts. Been lurking and watching you guys and your observations all day. Your posts are very much appreciated. Should we be getting nervous up here? What are your thoughts on a direct hit for Cape Cod?

What part of the Cape? I grew up on Lower County Rd.

I would say yes at this point. I think these latest runs call for us in southern NE to prepare. Four days out from Ike we stocked up on water and non perishables. Back then it was a "chance" landfall near Houston. Many thought it would be Luisiana at that time. We were lucky we did. Not so much for us, but we had many many friends who needed what we had stockpiled. For them it was either walking to Reliant or Rice Stadium for emergency food supplies, or come to our place for food, shower, and unfiltered sake . The later was far better. Either way your covered if you prepare now. You will also avoid the panic shopping. In Houston, I could not find one bag of chips ANYWHERE the day before Ike arrived.

Please stay safe. If this thing tags Cape Hatteras, I think the Cape, RI, Central MA and eastern CT will all be panic shopping.

Marstons Mills here. I know the Dennis/Dennsport area. Hey, thanks for all the good advice. It is appreciated. I worry that so many of us up here are not prepared as it has been generations since we really got hit hard (Hurricane Bob and our "no name" storm of the 80's but they weren't the Duke of Earl). I will shop tomorrow and be ready. If it doesn't hit, great, if it does, I'll be ready. Lots of boarding and taping to do. Ugh. Gonna be a rough 48 hours.....

[ozonepete]

The envelope (wind field) is clearly expanding. That may prevent more intensification for the short while. But the core is holding and the symmetry is getting even better, so we should expect an even larger cat 4 by morning.

[Florida1118]

http://img704.imageshack.us/img704/3328/flasheb.jpg

Obviously, I have to believe the NHC and their forecasting skills, as they are 1000 times better than mine, but boy...sitting here in S FL, I can't help but look at that image and think 'what if?'. So many storms sitting in that position make a beeline this way....will breathe a sigh of relief once it turns, that's for sure....

I know. Im on the west coast but still. not what you want to see right their.

[HurrMark]

I am here in Cape Cod Massachusetts. Been lurking and watching you guys and your observations all day. Your posts are very much appreciated. Should we be getting nervous up here? What are your thoughts on a direct hit for Cape Cod?

What part of the Cape? I grew up on Lower County Rd.

I would say yes at this point. I think these latest runs call for us in southern NE to prepare. Four days out from Ike we stocked up on water and non perishables. Back then it was a "chance" landfall near Houston. Many thought it would be Luisiana at that time. We were lucky we did. Not so much for us, but we had many many friends who needed what we had stockpiled. For them it was either walking to Reliant or Rice Stadium for emergency food supplies, or come to our place for food, shower, and unfiltered sake . The later was far better. Either way your covered if you prepare now. You will also avoid the panic shopping. In Houston, I could not find one bag of chips ANYWHERE the day before Ike arrived.

Please stay safe. If this thing tags Cape Hatteras, I think the Cape, RI, Central MA and eastern CT will all be panic shopping.

I don't think we should even think about panicking at this point. Is there a possibility that it could approach the Cape? Yes. Is it likely? Not at this point. It is definitely important to remain vigilant and make sure you have supplies on hand...like you should every hurricane season. Models have to make some significant westward adjustments before the Cape...or any landmasses for that matter...could possibly feel hurricane force winds, so right now, the best plan of attack is to just wait and see...and make sure you are prepared when and *if* the time comes...

[Evil Jeremy]

Just because Earl is trending left doesnt mean it will continue and even now IF Earl goes down the center of the cone, their should only be tropical storm force winds near the outer banks of NC. I"m really pulling for this trough to make it presence known and kick this bad boy out to sea. That being said, I was in Jeanne and Charlie when they were tropical storms in central fl and I gotta tell ya 50mph sustained winds with gusts to 60 for a half hour was enough to scare the crap out of me.

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, because you never know what will happen with the tropics.

[Dean4Storms]

I just went and looked a bit closer at the GFS, it actually takes the 2nd trough to recurve Earl. The first one swings out of the Great Lakes and then another trough comes down from Canada and into the upper Plains turns around and lifts out through the Great Lakes and it is this trough that recurves Earl. There are many pucker factors for this one to happen and miss the East Coast I'm afraid!!!!!