ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Just emerging now right on time. The upper outflow should wind it up quickly like a top.

The Dovrak shear estimate at the moment shows only 2-3kts worth of shear aloft over this system, conditions really are very condusive aloft right now and once it stacks itself and tigthens itself...it'll be off to the races.

[Ivanhater]

[Sanibel]

Whoa look at that front on WV! It's going to turn!

[deltadog03]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

I hope you realize that every radio station...and every TV station (with VERY few exceptions) are only going to give you the official NHC forecast...not their own opinion. So...when they say it is going south of BRO, that is what the NHC is saying at the current time...and that is subject to change...hence all the consternation on the board among the models and which one is right.

I THINK you are in the clear...but do not count on it because a local weather station says so.

LOL...I show the nhc track, but also give the ideas of my own...but, your right most don't!

[hurricaneCW]

Not good, I was hoping to would decouple and the core get ripped apart, however, that's not what's happening. The fact that its barely in the water and already firing plenty of convection is very concerning. The core remains in tact and conditions are ideal for strengthening. Now it seems a major is not out of the question. When you have this type of ideal environment coupled with August like sst's in the GOM, it's bound to cause trouble.

[Dean4Storms]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

It would seem, except yesterday it was showing mid Mexico coast, so even the Para has shifted north. Regular GFS still showing upper Texas...

Ivanhater the old GFS is HIGHLY suspect at this point. Have you read MWatkins post? It does NOT handle heat very well and wants to develop a low in the Northern GOM that carves out more of a weakness. Just don't see that happening.

Please read:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=108361

Well that is his interpretation. NWS out of Tally, FL says it is a vorticity max spinning off of Alex not a heat generated low.

No matter, the possibility of the old GFS and CMC being correct cannot be ignored especially with the ECMWF and other models shifting northward more toward Texas.

[ocala]

Man this thing is really starting to ramp up and I have to crash.
It will be interesting to see what's happening at 3AM.

[Air Force Met]

LOL...I show the nhc track, but also give the ideas of my own...but, your right most don't!

I had to be "ordered" to show the NHC track. I now do so with "caveats."

[Dean4Storms]

I got a movement of 310, looks like it is decoupled a good bit from the MLC. I don't think it will wrap back up as fast as some think with it oriented SW to NE through the column.

[KWT]

I was thinking that as well Dean when I saw the last of the Vis loops and the MLC seemed to be moving a little more westerly than the LLC...but thats nothing a good convective burst won't sort out, I can't see it taking more then 12-18hrs to start to ramp up.

No doubt about it though upper conditions are real good right now...

[Nimbus]

Take a look at the big picture with the WV loop. The convection kicking up over west Texas marks the western edge of the anticyclone high over the gulf. We may not see a linear track if Alex migrates around the western periphery of the high. 4 pm the track was 300 now probably 315. There is an ULL moving NW toward the Bahamas that probably will border the eastern side of the gulf high. Looks like a bad setup that will result in a dangerous storm.

[ozonepete]

Yes, Ivanhater, that shows it really well. This western trough is unusually deep for late June. If the 00Z runs keep it deep and slow, there will be a significant change in the track forecast.

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Speed up this loop. Doesn't appear to be struggling!

[CrazyC83]

That trough is also really helping to bring down the pressure for the entire atmosphere.

[LaBreeze]

Take a look at the big picture with the WV loop. The convection kicking up over west Texas marks the western edge of the anticyclone high over the gulf. We may not see a linear track if Alex migrates around the western periphery of the high. 4 pm the track was 300 now probably 315. There is an ULL moving NW toward the Bahamas that probably will border the eastern side of the gulf high. Looks like a bad setup that will result in a dangerous storm.

A bad setup for who? I'm sorry to ask, just not sure I understand.

[KWT]

tolakram, it looks pretty decent though I do wonder whether the MLC/LLC are a little decoupled as others have suggested earlier...will be interesting to see what recon finds.

[Air Force Met]

Take a look at the big picture with the WV loop. The convection kicking up over west Texas marks the western edge of the anticyclone high over the gulf. We may not see a linear track if Alex migrates around the western periphery of the high. 4 pm the track was 300 now probably 315. There is an ULL moving NW toward the Bahamas that probably will border the eastern side of the gulf high. Looks like a bad setup that will result in a dangerous storm.

Take a look at a higher res vis loop (enhanced).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

There is actually an upper low over east TX. That will erode the ridge in a hurry.

[KWT]

Recon showing quite a broad LLC, probably will take a little bit of time with some deep convection over it to tighten it up somewhat, shouldn't be too difficult to happen though thats being said...

Yeah Crazy, will be interesting to see just how low we go with this recon.

[Nimbus]

Take a look at the big picture with the WV loop. The convection kicking up over west Texas marks the western edge of the anticyclone high over the gulf. We may not see a linear track if Alex migrates around the western periphery of the high. 4 pm the track was 300 now probably 315. There is an ULL moving NW toward the Bahamas that probably will border the eastern side of the gulf high. Looks like a bad setup that will result in a dangerous storm.

A bad setup for who? I'm sorry to ask, just not sure I understand.

If Alex gets into the northern part of the gulf there really isn't any good place it could make landfall. Not to mention that a system developing under an anticyclone with good outflow will intensify more.

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to think this might be a coast-runner - approach Laguna Madre then make the turn north to north-northeast, but it may either be already inland in Mexico at that point or still offshore.