ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Seriously, does anyone on this board (pro met or otherwise) know the climatological reasons behind Hurricane Charley's abrupt turn into the southwest coast of Florida in August 2004? I've not been able to find any answers on the Internet.

Trough??

Yes, there was a trough swinging into the north central Gulf, it turned Charley much like what is expected with Earl.

[cpdaman]

Scorpion, don't think that was it. Nothing like that in the forecast far as I can find out.

yup there was certainly a trough ....a very deep trough for so early in the season i recall.

[UpTheCreek]

Isabel was a big storm, nearly as large as Katrina I believe. I think it had hurricane force winds over 100 miles out.

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks for that RL3AO, that is exactly what I was talking about earlier and the pucker factor for this to be timed right with Earl. One thing though, the slower Earl moves the more likely the trough gets to him before he reaches the east coast.

[dixiebreeze]

Scorpion, don't think that was it. Nothing like that in the forecast far as I can find out.

yup there was certainly a trough ....a very deep trough for so early in the season i recall.

Thanks. Wish I could find some graphics for that set-up in '04.

[Tstormwatcher]

And lets not forget the storm surge from Isabel. It was huge. Flooded all the way to Baltimore.
This one could be just as big if it comes ashore.

[JTE50]

Seriously, does anyone on this board (pro met or otherwise) know the climatological reasons behind Hurricane Charley's abrupt turn into the southwest coast of Florida in August 2004? I've not been able to find any answers on the Internet.

Trough??

Yes, there was a trough swinging into the north central Gulf, it turned Charley much like what is expected with Earl.

from the NHC Seasons Archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?

[UpTheCreek]

Thank you, RL3AO!!! That was INCREDIBLY helpful to me in figuring out what's going on with Earl...or what's supposed to go on with Earl!

[Dean4Storms]

From the NHC archive........


By the time Charley reached the Dry Tortugas, it came under the influence of an unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric trough that had dug from the east-central United States into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In response to the steering flow on the southeast side of this trough, the hurricane turned north-northeastward and accelerated toward the southwest coast of Florida.

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive storm. I think Earl could be a Category 5, a first since Felix in 2007. Prayers to our friends in the Virgin Islands getting whacked by Earl.

[breaking wind]

The NHC is the first to admit they are nowhere near where they would like to be when it comes to predicting the intensity of a hurricane, but as far as the future track, gives them their dues, they nearly always nail it especially inside 72 hours.
If their is one area of tracking a storm where they understandably still struggle, its is when a storm parallels a coastline (ie charlie). If Earl was to get within say 30 miles of the coast, than you can bet the pro's will be in full "wobble watching mode" but until than, it seems kind of pointless.

[ConvergenceZone]

RL3AO
those are excellent graphics you put together. Thanks for doing that....

(wow, when I got home from work only 2 hours ago, we were on page 123, now we are already on page 129. this thread is moving quick)

[Hurritrax]

Thanks to all of you for providing some great pics, graphs, discussion and analysis of Earl. I'm in Northeast NC, and no matter what, we're gonna get pounded whether Earl makes landfall at Hatteras or not. The only good thing I can see right now is that we'll be on the west side of the wind field, but I'm starting my preps tonight. Hope this storm makes that sharp right on Wed or Thurs as forecast and stays far far away from the entire US east coast and Canada

[Weather Watcher]

Very helpful pics for all us people whoneed a lil help at times understanding these things.

Thank you!!!

[Steve]

I always thought Charley looked like it involved landfall interaction to where it got caught up in some friction with the FL Peninsula. It strengthened and just swung/spun inland there. That track was semi-unique so I don't know that there are lot of comparables to look for clues. Rainband was the poster who saw the move while a lot of us, me included, saw "Texas."
-----------------
Dean, yeah my bad. It wasn't you that said that. It was somebody else. I was reading one of your posts in another window. Whoever it was was saying something about the track wasn't NW yet when it wasn't necessarily supposed to be for 24 hours. That's why I pasted that part of the discussion.

[jasons2k]

Long range from San Juan depicts a very well-organized hurricane:

[SootyTern]

That mass of dry air to the NW of Earl was supposed to move SW over So Fla by this afternoon and dry us out, iirc from the area forecast discussion yesterday & this morning. It hasn't yet, and seems to be right in Earl's forecast path. Wonder what will happen here with that.

[blazess556]

Long range from San Juan depicts a very well-organized hurricane:

well it is a cat 4 hurricane.

[SeaBrz_FL]

I posted my questions on the regular Talkin' Tropics forum yesterday, but received no responses, so am hoping one of you experts can give an opinion.

I need your feedback on expected flying conditions out of La Guardia, NY, at noon on Friday, Sept 3.

I can only monitor current models, but even if Earl stays offshore of most of the U.S. NE, what level of offshoot winds/rain could shut down LGA?

Thanks

[Ptarmigan]

Isabel was a big storm, nearly as large as Katrina I believe. I think it had hurricane force winds over 100 miles out.

Katrina had up to 125 miles out in terms of hurricane force winds when it was making landfall. Ike had hurricane force winds spanning 240 miles, while Katrina was 200 miles.