EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

loop

[bahamaswx]

Still maintaining structure even with rapidly warming cloud tops.

[HURAKAN]

258
WTPZ24 KNHC 252036
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 119.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 119.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 122.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.0N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.4N 125.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[Pedro Fernández]

I have been reading the thread, and I think nobody has given his/her thoughts about that: do you think CELIA has been the most powerful hurricane in the EPAC in June? CELIA is not in the top ten of the most powerfull category 5 storm even recorded but, just thinking its 25th June, it could be the king for this month... What are your thoughts about that?

[bob rulz]

I have been reading the thread, and I think nobody has given his/her thoughts about that: do you think CELIA has been the most powerful hurricane in the EPAC in June? CELIA is not in the top ten of the most powerfull category 5 storm even recorded but, just thinking its 25th June, it could be the king for this month... What are your thoughts about that?

Well, Ava in 1973 is listed at the same intensity. All things considered though, I wouldn't be surprised if Celia was a little bit stronger at peak intensity.

[Pedro Fernández]

I have been reading the thread, and I think nobody has given his/her thoughts about that: do you think CELIA has been the most powerful hurricane in the EPAC in June? CELIA is not in the top ten of the most powerfull category 5 storm even recorded but, just thinking its 25th June, it could be the king for this month... What are your thoughts about that?

Well, Ava in 1973 is listed at the same intensity. All things considered though, I wouldn't be surprised if Celia was a little bit stronger at peak intensity.

But, AVA, in what month was born?

[HURAKAN]

June

[Pedro Fernández]

Wow....... Thank you very much. I agree with the comments that point to the coincidence between CELIA and La Niña transition...

[Iune]

I have been reading the thread, and I think nobody has given his/her thoughts about that: do you think CELIA has been the most powerful hurricane in the EPAC in June? CELIA is not in the top ten of the most powerfull category 5 storm even recorded but, just thinking its 25th June, it could be the king for this month... What are your thoughts about that?

Well, Ava in 1973 is listed at the same intensity. All things considered though, I wouldn't be surprised if Celia was a little bit stronger at peak intensity.

But, AVA, in what month was born?

That is not correct. Ava's lowest minimum recorded pressure was 915 mbar (hPa); 11 mbar lower than Celia's. Also, this was measured when Ava was still a category 4 hurricane, so it is possible that the storm was stronger.

[bob rulz]

That is not correct. Ava's lowest minimum recorded pressure was 915 mbar (hPa); 11 mbar lower than Celia's. Also, this was measured when Ava was still a category 4 hurricane, so it is possible that the storm was stronger.

But was it measured, or was it estimated?

I would also argue that Celia looked its best between advisories.

[KWT]

Celia still looks really good despite warming tops, the 115kts estimate looks about right to me right now, very impressive hurricane I think we can all say!

[HurricaneStriker]

Celia still looks really good despite warming tops, the 115kts estimate looks about right to me right now, very impressive hurricane I think we can all say!

I agree with you. Celia looks like a textbook EPAC hurricane to me. Very Impressive! Check this infrared image:
TEXTBOOK HURRICANE

P.S: The active storms and invests thing on the top of the page is glitched. Anyone noticed? There's a storm or depression forecast track over the Florida Panhandle.

[clfenwi]

That is not correct. Ava's lowest minimum recorded pressure was 915 mbar (hPa); 11 mbar lower than Celia's. Also, this was measured when Ava was still a category 4 hurricane, so it is possible that the storm was stronger.

But was it measured, or was it estimated?

I would also argue that Celia looked its best between advisories.

Curiosity caused me to look it up. That 915 mb was from a recon dropsonde. Source: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season of 1973 (pdf)

[CrazyC83]

The convection has definitely warmed though. I would guess 105 kt.

[Chacor]

Indeed, 105 kt at 03z.

[HURAKAN]

249
WTPZ44 KNHC 260242
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

CELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AROUND
A COOLING AND SHRINKING EYE. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE...AND WERE 5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 105 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. CELIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM...AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
...THE FORWARD SPEED OF CELIA WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 2 KT LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.8N 119.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.4N 121.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 124.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 16.5N 125.3W 30 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/0000Z 16.5N 127.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Aquawind]

[bob rulz]

That is not correct. Ava's lowest minimum recorded pressure was 915 mbar (hPa); 11 mbar lower than Celia's. Also, this was measured when Ava was still a category 4 hurricane, so it is possible that the storm was stronger.

But was it measured, or was it estimated?

I would also argue that Celia looked its best between advisories.

Curiosity caused me to look it up. That 915 mb was from a recon dropsonde. Source: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season of 1973 (pdf)

Oh well hmmm, that's very interesting. (It also mentioned this on Wikipedia which is where I usually go for my hurricane info - d'oh!) Still though, Celia's pressure was only estimated at the very least, so we will never know exactly how powerful it got. It probably didn't drop to 915mb though.

[Chacor]

Continues to undergo RW, down to 85 kt now.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 260849
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010

CELIA HAS MOVED OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25C...AND ITS SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYE HAVE COOLED FROM ABOUT -16C TO
-34C...AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS SHRUNK. DVORAK
ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 KT AND 77 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.4/4.9...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE FT AND CI NUMBERS. QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
CELIA STAYS OVER COOL WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS
NORTHWEST. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND NOW WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE THE REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAINTAINS A POSITION AT THAT TIME UNTIL MORE OF THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON THIS SOLUTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY
BY DAY 3...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS AND IS
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE REMNANT LOW WILL THEN BE
DRIVEN SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE
TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.3N 120.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.7N 121.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.0N 123.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.2N 124.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 124.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 16.4N 125.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/0600Z 16.5N 127.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG