ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

Vorticity maps show that area actually decreased substantially. I'm not certain this is in as good shape as you guys may think.

Look at the size of the system...it is so small, it is a wonder the maps didn't show it shrinking more!

[KWT]

Yep there is a clear circulation and the high resolution Sat.imagery shows this system is wrapping up very quickly and probably is on its way to depression status...

Hard to ignore the wrapping effect going on, probably some very quick development occuring due to its small size...could be TD2 very soon...

[cycloneye]

Rising from the dead.

04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

What do you mean?

Is the first time that SSD dvorak releases numbers for 95L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[LaBreeze]

How fast is this little system moving? In which direction? Would it have any time to develop at all?

[bahamaswx]

How fast is this little system moving? In which direction? Would it have any time to develop at all?

Just eyeballing the above gif I'd say slightly south of west, perhaps ~12mph. Still waiting for it to turn north.

[JonathanBelles]

Meteorologically looks like a Tropical Depression to me. The last ASCAT pass had it as a closed system with light winds. Local obs also seem to point toward a closed low. Satellite is impressive with obvious circulation, good inflow, and building outflow. Shear doesnt seem to be a problem although it is quite high for a cyclogenesis.

[KWT]

Looks cool the way it's wrapping up, but there really isn't any support for a depression. I checked most of the buoys, and the highest sustained was around 15k south of Terrebonne Parish. Highest gusts anywhere were around 19k which I think was Shell Beach which isn't actually anywhere near the mass of convection but is near the coastal showers that have been moving across South LA all day today south of New Orleans. MSLP near most of the coastal buoys was running from about 29.94 to 29.96 which was generally between .02 and .05 lower than it was yesterday. Obviously the circulation is there, and it's a miniature low pressure system. In the loop above, you can see what appears to be the low level center starting to pull north(ish).

If this system is as small as it looks, then the winds that may support TD status are probably in a very small zone indeed, Marco's winds were only extending 10 miles from the center so its quite possible that 95L has winds of 20-25kts in that very small system.

[brunota2003]

Too bad recon was canceled for today...with it being such a small system, the X pattern wouldn't have to be very big at all. Would definitely be curious what they would find.

[LaBreeze]

I'm in SW LA and we're having beautiful skies and it almost seems like a northeasterly breeze (slight). Nice break from all of the rain in recent days.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Notice this intensified right overe the oil spill!

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's developing rapidly now.

[Weatherfreak000]

I would say everything that is ANYTHING in the Atlantic Basin right now is intensifying rapidly.

[I-wall]

Wow, this sure did spin up quickly. Looks like a depression in my amateur opinion.

[Thunder44]

Cold-cloud tops are warming. That's not indication of system that is developing rapdily. I don't think NHC will upgrade this evening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[wxman57]

Looks kind of like Marco did in the BoC now. I think the surface center may be a bit north of the mid-level center, but they may be aligning. Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC issues a special statement tonight.

[wxman57]

Notice this intensified right overe the oil spill!

It's west of the oil spill in MC-252.

[KWT]

Cold-cloud tops are warming. That's not indication of system that is developing rapdily. I don't think NHC will upgrade this evening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

I don't think the IR really matters, its clearly wrapping, its obvious as you can get now really that this is developing into a TD, IMO its pretty clear cut...tops are warming due to D-Min, soon as that eases they will deepen again.

[ToxicTiger]

This does not look like a healthy environment for cyclogenisis to me.

[I-wall]

This does not look like a healthy environment for cyclogenisis to me.

I dont think so either. But, regardless of that, it looks like something is forming.

[cycloneye]

A special Tropical Weather Outlook soon?