ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Vortex]

I think the west motion projected by the GFS and other Globals right into the islands looks very reasonable based on the current/forecasted synoptics at this time. Unfortunately, the area between Dominica and Guadeloupe may have to deal with a powerful hurricane given the very favorable environmental conditions ahead for Gaston. Anything W of 70W is nearly impossible to predict with any level of confidence this far out when talking recurature. Weather it lifts north at 70W, 80W, or 90W all seem equal at this point. Im sure over the coming days well see the GFS swing from the gulf, up the east coast, and over to Bermuda. Folks it’s the first run!!! Any talk of hitting or missing the US is worthless noise

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

This storm hasn't even begun to intensify yet so calling for a recurve is way premature, IMHO. Give it 72 hours, see if the high pressure system rebuilds in behind the two storms near the U.S. then you may get a better picture. If this storm tracks south of the Puerto Rico, we are going to have a GOM player in all probability, but again, it is WAY too early to call.

The one thing we can say is there has been alot of upper troughing over the W.Atlantic this year, and there I'd be very surprised if the Gulf has much to worry about from this sort of system unless it manages to get to 80W...if that happens then a MX/TX threat is more likely...BUT I suspect the track may not be all that much different from Earl overall but with probably a greater threat of lifting out before land.

[hurricaneCW]

Well I'm going to focus on Earl right now since he's the imminent threat. This one should stay at the back of everyone's mind until Earl is finally gone. It's far to the east and there is plenty of time to watch it, no need to get too concerned this far out.

[Vortex]

KWT, remind me to ask you for this weeks picks at the track

[TheBurn]

This one should stay at the back of everyone's mind until Earl is finally gone. It's far to the east and there is plenty of time to watch it, no need to get too concerned this far out.

Of course... that would depend on your location...

[gatorcane]

Yes, this is one the islands are going to have to watch. See no reason for a recurve away from them. A possibility exists it doesn't get that strong prior to the islands but still early to say for sure. I see the 12Z GFS whacks Puerto Rico.

[Sanibel]

I usually don't pay attention until 45-50 west when the steering currents become more obvious.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

Well,coincidence is the fact that future Gaston is the replacement name for this one.

[TheBurn]

Well,coincidence is the fact that future Gaston is the replacement name for this one.

Ahh... Georges... I was there Cycloneye

[apocalypt-flyer]

I think what's to become Gaston has a recent rather good presentation and got its act together nicely. It'll be difficult to say which pattern it'll follow but it doesn't look like it'll gain too much latitude over the next couple of days and I do worry a bit for the Antilles in general. Anything beyond that is a pure guesstimate.

Thing is, this one won't get a lot of attention/coverage until Earl is out of the picture, so it'll be in the focus at the very earliest this weekend or something.

[ColinDelia]

Question.

Here is the 850 mb vorticity by CIMSS.

FIGURE A.


Here is the 12z 850 mb vorticity as seen by the GFS (it didn't look all that different at 12z)

FIGURE B.


These are quite different depictions with the GFS now showing a nice round symmetrical area of vorticity with much higher values (by a factor of 4-5x it looks like). This is opposed to the more elongated, weaker depiction it had showed in the 6z which more closely matched the CIMSS.
(The units in FIGURE A are 10^-6 s^-1 and the units in FIGURE B are 10^-5 s^-1)

My question is this.
Once the NHC designates a system a tropical cyclone do they manually enter in the more symmetrical and stronger vorticity
into the GFS model? If so, which is the more accurate depiction? Can there really be that much error in the satellite derived
850 mb vorticity?

[caneseddy]

Seeing the GFS solution reminded me of the 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane (or San Felipe Segundo as it is known to Puerto Rico and which my grandfather lived through)

Not to say it's going to be like that just that initial path by the GFS through the Caribbean and up into the Atlantic (cutting through PR) is identical to this one, albeit with a further north and east component after passing PR

[johngaltfla]

Seeing the GFS solution reminded me of the 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane (or San Felipe Segundo as it is known to Puerto Rico and which my grandfather lived through)

Not to say it's going to be like that just that initial path by the GFS through the Caribbean is identical to this one

As a historian, let me remind you, that was the final nail in the Florida Land Boom of the 1920's and helped contribute to make the Great Depression "Great" across the entire nation.

I hope this does not follow a similar path, that's for sure.

[caneseddy]

[quote="ColinDelia"]Question.

Here is the 850 mb vorticity by CIMSS.

FIGURE A.



Could Gaston's sister Hermine be right behind it, just leaving Africa?

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak numbers stay as TD.

01/1745 UTC 12.5N 36.0W T2.0/2.0 09L -- Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Well,coincidence is the fact that future Gaston is the replacement name for this one.

Oh boy Sir Georges let's forget it Cycloneye:oops:

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

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