ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[LaBreeze]

It was a response to the impression that some are claiming it's moving North.

O.k. - thanks.

[Dean4Storms]

It was a response to the impression that some are claiming it's moving North.

Must of been my post. Yes, watch the sat loop above and high Resolution imagery and over the last 6 hours it has turned more NW, very evident.

[Nederlander]

It was a response to the impression that some are claiming it's moving North.

I wouldnt say its heading due north.. but i would like to see an extrap. from its current heading.. with my eyes, this would be north of brownsville.. (I know that its not going to travel in a straight line and the models that push it west are calling for the ridge to build back).. im just sayin

[Dean4Storms]

It was a response to the impression that some are claiming it's moving North.

Must of been my post. Yes, watch the sat loop above and high Resolution imagery and over the last 6 hours it has turned more NW, very evident.

This sat loop put on about 15 loops and then zoom in, you should see the turn that began.


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[AdamFirst]

It's definitely not heading west if that's what you're implying.


How Alex got his groove back...convection firing right around the center. Wouldn't be surprised if it's TS by 5 AM (I'd feel like I was jumping the gun if I were to say 11 PM tonight)

[KWT]

Looks to me like it has changed its heading a little bit further, probably upto about 315-320 for the short term anyway, still not as far north as the easterly models for the short term but if it keeps that track up for any length of time then the confidence in the Texas solution has to increase...coming up from deep as well so its got plenty of time to strengthen if that solution is correct.

[Nederlander]

Also, keep in mind that the stronger Alex is, the more it will feel the weakness to the North..

[ozonepete]

Regardless of what happens when it nears Texas later in the week, this has everything going right for it in terms of strengthening for at least the next two days. High SSTs, upper level high right over it, convection blossoming right over the center while it's not even far offshore. Looks like a really good candidate for RI, especially once it gets north of the Yucatan.

[KWT]

Hmmm...Recon found flight level winds at 43kts, so thats very close to whats needed to upgrade, they may well be tempted by the fact its pressure is so low.

Also the low center is right over the convection now that blew up about an hour ago, looks like the system is well on its way already...

I'm think cat-2/3 now as a peak, no reason why it can't given conditions are very condusive right now.

[Dean4Storms]

Regardless of what happens when it nears Texas later in the week, this has everything going right for it in terms of strengthening for at least the next two days. High SSTs, upper level high right over it, convection blossoming right over the center whiles it's not even far offshore. Looks like a really good candidate for RI, especially once it gets north of the Yucatan.

I agree Ozonepete, nothing there to keep it in check for the short term.

[Brent]

So it has a lower pressure than it did when it made landfall? LOL

[KWT]

From the looks of things Brent yes it indeed does have lower pressure than it had before, quite amazing stuff really!

At least recon easily found the closed LLC this time round, looks quite tight actually depsite the low pressure in general.

[mpic]

From the spaghetti models, it looks like we will have a clear indication by about noon on Tuesday if not before?

[Nederlander]

From the spaghetti models, it looks like we will have a clear indication by about noon on Tuesday if not before?

who knows.. hopefully we will have a better idea.. but just 3 day models can change just like 5 day models.. so theres really no telling at this point..

[ozonepete]

Here's the Oceanic Heat Content and SSTs for the area. Really conducive for development once it clears the Yucatan.


This first one is the OHC showing the depth that 26C temperatures go down to. It will be going over water of 80F or higher that reaches down to 70 or 80 meters. That's a lot of heat.

[drezee]

I will try and find some old pics of Opal from 95. This looks a lot like Opal when it started if I recall...had a similar pressure field when it came off the yucatan as well...

ok, I was dead on...This is a lot like Opal went in at 1003mb and by the time recon got there right on the coast it was 994mb...and yes, that is a 987mb pressure on a 45kt storm...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html

01/0000 21.3 89.9 994 45 " "
0600 21.1 90.7 987 45 " "
1200 20.9 91.2 986 45 " "

I am going to go out on a limb here and say once it consolidates...it may do an Opal-type bomb...

[Brent]

AL, 01, 2010062800, , BEST, 0, 192N, 911W, 35, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 20, 20, 60, <<<TS again

[ozonepete]

I will try and find some old pics of Opal from 95. This looks a lot like Opal when it started if I recall...had a similar pressure field when it came off the yucatan as well...

ok, I was dead on...This is a lot like Opal went in at 1003mb and by the time recon got there right on the coast it was 994mb...and yes, that is a 987mb pressure on a 45kt storm...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html

01/0000 21.3 89.9 994 45 " "
0600 21.1 90.7 987 45 " "
1200 20.9 91.2 986 45 " "

I am going to go out on a limb here and say once it consolidates...it may do an Opal-type bomb...

Unfortunately, at this point that is a valid concern.

[CrazyC83]

Another storm this has some similarities with is Audrey, which was likely a pressure/wind mismatch as well (I don't believe it was anywhere near Cat 4 at peak).

[MGC]

I would think Alex is near or at TS intensity....and with a 991mb centeral pressure. Wonder how long before a VDM is transmitted....MGC