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JTE50 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:They are probably just as baffled as us.
I think baffled and under a lot of pressure to get it right with as much lead time as possible due to the fleet of surface ships at the Deepwater Horizon site.
SFLcane wrote:JTE50 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:They are probably just as baffled as us.
I think baffled and under a lot of pressure to get it right with as much lead time as possible due to the fleet of surface ships at the Deepwater Horizon site.
Jim are youre going to be chasing alex? Would not suprise me to see a 100kt cane during the next day or two the ways things are rolling tonight.
I sure hope that oil washing up on our beach doesn't get any worse after Alex is done. Last Wednesday there was black oil all over the beach for miles. When I flew over the Deepwater horizon site a week ago there were so many ships skimming and supporting the relief well operations. If Alex pulls more right of track it's going to get rough out there.
vacanechaser wrote:JTE50 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:They are probably just as baffled as us.
I think baffled and under a lot of pressure to get it right with as much lead time as possible due to the fleet of surface ships at the Deepwater Horizon site.
good to see you here jim!!
gonna go to mexico if it heads there???
Your avatar scares me every time I see it Jesse. I might stay here to see what Alex does to the oil offshore.
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
For AMUSEMENT's sake (do not read anything into this), if we extrapolated a constant rate of decline of 0.2 mb/hr, in 120 hours, we would reach 955 mb, or a Category 3 hurricane.vaffie wrote:It is down 0.3 mb in the past hour and a half.
N2FSU wrote:Is the convection appearing in this WV loop in western Texas part of the trough dipping down? If so, it sure looks like it is beating Alex to the punch and will turn him pretty soon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
ozonepete wrote:Hey CrazyC83, or anyone else, does the NHC get any 00Z output in time for the 10PM EST advisory? I would think not, but I'm embarrased to say I don't know for sure.
ozonepete wrote:Hey CrazyC83, or anyone else, does the NHC get any 00Z output in time for the 10PM EST advisory? I would think not, but I'm embarrased to say I don't know for sure.
Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The 1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would be considered a "late" model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC official forecast. Conversely, the BAM models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are initialized. Therefore, they are termed "early" models. Model timeliness is listed in Table 1.
Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and intensity of the TC. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as "interpolated" models.
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